After Putin's military defeat in

Ukraine

, the collapse of Russia and revolution may occur.

And it is Chechnya that can become the place where new processes in Russia will begin.

This opinion was expressed by Hanna Labushevska, an expert on Russian affairs, RadioZET.pl informs.

"

A lost war in Ukraine can reveal various social disturbances that will undermine Russia and lead to a revolution

. The disintegration of Russia is considered in various scenarios of the development of a situation when the center, i.e. the Kremlin, will not be able to provide the basic needs of one or another region," says Hanna Labushevska.

In her opinion, the Caucasus can be the most difficult challenge for the Kremlin.

"Ramzan Kadyrov (the current head of Chechnya - ed.) is attached to Putin. This is only conditionally, because he does not have support even among the society in Chechnya, which has been preparing for more than 20 years. There are also different interest groups that are fighting each other. Kadyrov eliminates them, but this does not mean that he has support. When Kadyrov's deputy loses control over the situation, he himself can reach for power and fight for an independent Chechnya again," the expert explained.

She added that the military situation in Ukraine is dynamic, and it is the biggest threat to the Kremlin.

The expert emphasizes that during the last year of the full-scale invasion, the position of the Russian dictator Putin has weakened significantly. 

According to her, if the information about the second wave of mobilization in the Russian Federation, which will affect other social groups, is officially confirmed, it will also change the attitude of Russians towards this war and Putin's government.

The expert warns that "the regions of the Russian Federation may be engulfed in fermentation", which Putin cannot cope with alone.

Currently, the expert says, "Putin's system rests on the pillars that he built in recent years."

One of them, as Labushevska points out, is all the security services of the Russian Federation.

For example, the FSB is completely controlled by Putin and monitors both the group that supports the war but is unhappy with its results and those who oppose the invasion.

"Another pillar is propaganda, which is a protective shield and so far effectively protects Putin. The third pillar is business. The business elite, with rare exceptions, has remained loyal to Putin. According to him, if Putin decides to torpedo business, he is dismantled with the help of security forces and propaganda," Labushevska said.

In addition, the fact that a third of Russia's 2023 budget will go to the needs of the defense and interior ministries means that the Kremlin is preparing for a scenario of suppressing social discontent.

At the same time, Labushevska believes that local community leaders are needed to oppose the Kremlin in certain regions.

However, she points out that currently the heads of the regions of the Russian Federation are "people who, if not directly sent by Putin, at least have the approval of the Kremlin."

"There are regional politicians who are popular. I mean the former mayor of Yekaterinburg, Yevhen Roizman, who is an independent politician and a very popular figure in his hometown. People could follow him. On the other hand, St. Petersburg is led by Oleksandr Beglov — completely depends on Putin," the expert comments.

It will be recalled that Russian political scientist Ivan Preobrazhensky believes that new problems await Putin in 2023.

Mothers, wives and those Russians whose occupiers died in the war in Ukraine will increasingly "attack" the dictator of the Russian Federation.

Preobrazhenskyi said that they have nothing to lose and that they are "ideal fighters against the regime" in order to achieve punishment for the death of a loved one.

Read also:

  • Ukraine news

  • War in Ukraine

  • News of Ukraine: video