Briefly

• Almost half of the active part of the new Belarusian diaspora of the 21st century are people aged 31-40.

• The majority of this diaspora group closely follows events in Belarus and actively provides assistance to Belarusians and Ukrainians both in the diaspora and in the metropolis.

• A little more than a quarter of the active part of the new diaspora takes part in organizational activities both in the diaspora and in Belarus.

• 42% of surveyed active emigrants would like to return to Belarus.

25% of Belarusian "active emigrants" do not plan to return to their homeland - this is the result of a survey conducted by the Center for New Ideas and the "People's Poll" initiative.

The research was conducted among Belarusian emigrants in Viber and Telegram messengers (online interview) from October 3 to 30, 2022, with the participation of 1,631 people.

The results of the survey do not pretend to be strictly representative of the entire diaspora.

The authors of the study emphasize that the respondents represent a socially and politically active part of emigration.

Nevertheless, the research gives some idea (at least about this part of the diaspora).

The first conclusion: the active diaspora is not only young people, and not even mainly young people.

Almost half of the respondents (47%) are aged 31–40, youth (18–30) make up less than a third.

The majority of respondents do not have major financial problems in emigration: "12% of respondents "do not deny themselves anything", 33.5% can "buy a car, but are not ready to say that they are not limited in means", 27.8% can "buy expensive things, but not a car."

It doesn't quite fit the picture that comes from, say, familiarity with the expat experience, especially the recent waves they share on social media.

Perhaps it is a matter of the peculiarities of the sample formation: people who face difficult material problems of adaptation to a new country are probably less inclined to talk about their lives and their views.

Among the respondents are exactly a quarter of those who left Belarus by 2020;

about a third emigrated in 2021 and 2022.

The majority of activists are keenly interested in events in Belarus, a good number do not limit their activity to communication in social networks: "73% of respondents admitted that they provide assistance to Belarus and Belarusians abroad, 55% to Ukraine and Ukrainians."

But as for participation in collective, organizational activities, the indicators are more modest here: a little more than a quarter (27%) reported that they provide assistance to "public organizations, initiatives, projects."

Every third respondent said that they maintain ties with like-minded people in Belarus (for comparison, 93% of respondents maintain ties with relatives in Belarus).

The share of those who do not intend to return to Belarus was given above - one in four.

It is interesting that it exactly coincides with the share of those who left Belarus by 2020.

It is unlikely that only they are going to return.

But there is a clear connection between the duration of living abroad and the reluctance to return — on average, the longer people live abroad, the lower the incentives to return.

But it is noteworthy that the relative majority of respondents (42%) still want to return.

The research did not find out how and when the emigrants want to return - now, to the future free Belarus, or when drastic changes such as the events of 2020 begin in Belarus.

Summarizing, we can say that the Belarusians of the active part of the diaspora of the 21st century largely live the events in Belarus.

Many of them provide assistance to their compatriots in Belarus and abroad.

But up to a third of the respondents are engaged in organizational activities, communication both in the diaspora and with the metropolis.

It is difficult to accurately estimate arithmetically how many people there are - it is not known how much the entire new diaspora is (although it is probably hundreds of thousands of Belarusians), which part of it is prone to social and political activity.

I believe that the estimate is tens of thousands of people, perhaps several hundreds of thousands.

Whether this is enough to create "another Belarus", "Belarus in the Diaspora", which

recently wrote about, is difficult to say.

Maybe so.

The fate of those who would like to return can be viewed in different ways.

One can see in this the hope and potential for change in the metropolis.

It is possible, by the way, and a ground for seduction by the authorities.

Apparently, in parallel with the spread of terror in the country, the authorities are also conducting a campaign to lure emigrants home.

How it ends for most "returnees", of course.

However, it is noteworthy that the majority of the active part of the new diaspora considers its current state as temporary.

Hope dies last.

And that's why Belarus lives.

And will live.

The opinions expressed in the blogs represent the views of the authors themselves and do not necessarily reflect the position of the editors.

• Yuri Drakakhrust

  Journalist of Radio Svaboda

  
  

  drakakhrusty@rferl.org

  FACEBOOKSubscribe