Military and political commentator Oleksandr Kovalenko told what is currently happening in Belarus and whether there are signs of preparations for an attack on Ukraine from that direction.

He told about this in an interview

with

"Nothing is really happening there. There are a lot of conspiracy theories about Belarus. But in fact, nothing is happening there now, something that would make one turn gray. The Belarusian army has not changed, there has been no large-scale mobilization. Their resource today is more or less combat-ready 14,000 personnel. And that, conditionally combat-ready, because, compared to the Armed Forces, it is an ineffective army. The Belarusian army is a paper army," Kovalenko believes.

According to him, currently

, and not the accumulation of forces for a repeated offensive.

"If we talk about the placement of the Russian contingent in Belarus, then its total number is 12 thousand, but more than 11 thousand of them are mobilized, undergoing training there at 5 different training grounds. For several months, these were units of the second MSD of the first tank army, currently they are taken to the Luhansk Region - to the Starobil-Svativ sector to strengthen the group. Instead, they are brought in by units of the Sixth MSD of the Third Army Corps, which are entirely mobilized. That is, some "chnoms" are replaced by other "chmons", which will be prepared to be sent to the meat grinder . This is not the formation of strike groups, this is not the formation of assault groups," the expert explains and adds that the Russians also have a critical shortage of equipment - they are only 30% equipped.

At the same time, the

, according to the expert

.

"The high threat is aviation. The Russians there have their MiG-31 fighter jets with hypersonic Dagger missiles, and they have also increased the aviation of fighters and bombers that can strike Ukraine in the air-to-surface class. This is the X-59. These strikes can be carried out from the territory of Belarus in the northern regions of Ukraine," Kovalenko noted.

Threats from Belarus

We will remind that the General Staff of the Armed Forces also warned about the threat of missile strikes and mass shelling of Ukraine from the territory of Belarus.

At the same time, with regard to the repeated offensive by Belarus, according to the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW), it may begin no earlier than the fall of 2023.

By this time, the Russian Federation will be able to complete one or more additional drafts in the reserve until the fall of 2023.

This deadline will allow Russia to prepare its military industry to provide the troops with the necessary equipment for the offensive from Belarus.

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• Ukraine news

• War in Ukraine

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