The influential German news publication Welt analyzed whether there is a threat of a repeated attack on Ukraine by Belarus. 

The publication collected the opinions of several experts, based on which they made assumptions as to whether Lukashenka's direct entry into the war might be inevitable.

The authors of Welt write that with such a partner as Belarus behind him, the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin could start a new offensive, but Western experts doubt this.

According to the experts of the Institute for the Study of War, the training of mobilized Russians is already at the limit of the Belarusians' training capabilities.

On paper, the armed forces of Belarus number

more than 45,000 soldiers 

and approximately


are considered to be near combat-ready.

Analysts assume that

for a new attack 

The armed forces of Russia are not yet strong enough.

Thus, compared to the 300,000 men and women whom Russia has mobilized and may mobilize in the future,

the Belarusian troops would be a drop in the bucket


A purely Russian attack from Belarus also seems unlikely at the moment.

According to the data provided by the German edition, n

About 13,000 Russian troops 

are currently stationed in Belarus .

For an attack that would not end in an immediate defeat for Putin, the Russian Federation 

a multiple number of troops will be needed.  

"Ukrainians at the moment 

the border with Belarus was well fortified. 

In addition, the topography of the border area with its swamps and dense forests favors defense, not attack," the tabloid quoted Ukrainian military expert Mykhailo Samus.

Repeated offensive from Belarus

On Monday, January 16,

 joint aviation training between Russia and Belarus began. 

The training is expected to last until February 1.

Before the exercises in Belarus, they began to urgently 

modernize the barracks for Russian pilots.

As of January 16, 

Ukraine did not record an increase in

 groups of Russian and Belarusian troops on the territory of the Republic of Belarus near the borders.

The head of the State Border Service, Serhii Deineko, indicated that there had not yet been any activities within the framework of the announced joint aviation exercises between Russia and Belarus. 

Polish analyst Krysztof Wojchal does not rule out that Russia

 may repeat the attack on Kyiv,

 which may require the use of a direction from Belarus.

Read also:

  • Serbian militants are participating in the war against Ukraine: what they say in Belgrade

  • Missile attack on the Dnipro: how many people remain missing after the end of the search

  • Scholz officially announced the appointment of a new German defense minister