On the 17th, the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation held a poll release conference entitled "Prospects for Taiwan's Domestic and Foreign Political and Economic Situations in 2023: Talking about the 2024 Taiwan Presidential Election".

(Photo by reporter Liao Zhenhui)

[Reporter Lin Liangsheng/Taipei Report] The Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation announced today the polls for January 2023. For the 2024 presidential election, if Vice President Lai Qingde, New Taipei City Mayor Hou Youyi, and People's Party Chairman Ke Wenzhe are under the "three-legged supervision", the three people will be equally divided, respectively. Lai 34%, Hou 31.4%, Ke 22.3%.

In terms of party support, the Democratic Progressive Party 26.1%, the KMT 21.5%, and the Taiwan People's Party 20.3%.

You Yinglong, chairman of the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation, held a press conference today to announce the national opinion survey for January 2023.

Regarding the 2024 presidential election, the poll asked the public who is the most popular within the Kuomintang. Hou Youyi leads with 36.7%, Hon Hai founder Guo Taiming 28.6%, Kuomintang Chairman Zhu Lilun 7.9%, and Zhongguang Chairman Zhao Shaokang 4% and 22.8%. have no idea.

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The same question asked who is the most popular in the Democratic Progressive Party. Lai Qingde was far ahead of other members of the Democratic Progressive Party, receiving 57.7% of the popularity. Former Vice President Chen Jianren 16.7%, Executive Premier Su Zhenchang 5.9%, and 19.8% did not know.

If next year's presidential election is based on the premise that Lai Qingde, Hou Youyi, and Ke Wenzhe will be the "three-legged supervisor", Lai Qingde will get 34% of the support, Hou Youyi 31.4%, Ke Wenzhe 22.3%, 5% undecided, and 7.2% don't know.

Compared with December last year, Hou's support decreased by 7.3 percentage points, Lai's increased by 5 percentage points, and Ke also increased by 4.5 percentage points.

You Yinglong believes that as the Kuomintang's enthusiasm for winning the election in 2022 gradually subsides, Hou Youyi is limited by the role of mayor of New Taipei City and cannot play a role in national affairs, resulting in a decline in support. In the past month, Lai Qingde participated in the DPP chairman election. It is completely understandable to enjoy the spotlight in the country and have the attitude of the DPP's savior to come from behind and surpass Hou. But for the 2024 presidential election, at this stage, no one can stably lead.

In terms of party support, the poll shows that 26.1% support the Democratic Progressive Party, 21.5% the KMT, 20.3% the People’s Party, 4.3% Times Power, 4.3% Taiwan Foundation, 1.2% other parties, and 21.3% do not support any party , 1% don't know; compared with the survey in December last year, the Democratic Progressive Party rose slightly by 1.4 percentage points, the KMT fell by 4.6 percentage points, and the People's Party rose by 2.6 percentage points.

The survey and interview period is from January 9th to 11th, 2023. Adults over the age of 20 are nationwide. The sampling method is based on the national residential telephone users as the sampling structure, and random sampling is done by systematic sampling and mantissa two digits. There are 1,085 valid samples, and the sampling error is about plus or minus 2.98 percentage points at the 95% confidence level; according to the latest demographic data from the Ministry of the Interior, the region, gender, age, and education level are weighted to conform to the matrix structure.