The strategic goal of the Russians in the war against Ukraine has not changed - the aggressor, as before, seeks to capture all of 




the Russians may repeat the attack on Kyiv,

which may require the use of the direction from Belarus.

Polish analyst Krysztof Wojchal said this in an interview with Wirtualna Polska.

In his opinion, "if Putin had known that the three-day operation would turn into a months-long war, he would have better prepared the army for the task before it." 

"My thesis is that the

second attack on Kyiv will not only take place, but will also be supported by the forces of the Belarusian army.

I spoke and wrote about this in May of last year, when many commentators had already announced the victory of Ukraine. Putin was not just taking a political risk, announcing mobilization in order not to use hundreds of thousands of conscripts to achieve complete victory. The Kremlin authorities are not interested in half-hearted solutions," he said.

In his opinion, harbingers of future events should be seen in Belarus.

"Information from this direction is of crucial importance for the correct and early reading of Putin's intentions, as well as for predicting the "zero hour". This is the moment of the second operation against Kyiv," the Polish analyst added.

According to Wojchal, the only question is whether Belarus will go to war with the current dictator Lukashenka.

"The only question is whether Belarus will go to war with Alexander Lukashenko at the helm - or whether his maneuvering towards Putin will force a change in the regime in Minsk," he concluded.

What is happening in Belarus

On Monday, January 16,

joint aviation training between Russia and Belarus began.

The training is expected to last until February 1.

Before the exercises in Belarus, they began to urgently

modernize the barracks for Russian pilots


The joint maneuvers have raised


in Kyiv and Western capitals that Russia could use Belarus to launch a new ground offensive against Ukraine.

It is particularly worrying that in February 2022, Belarus already conducted similar military exercises.

As of January 16, 

Ukraine did not record an increase in

 groups of Russian and Belarusian troops on the territory of the Republic of Belarus near the borders.

The head of the State Border Service, Serhii Deineko, indicated that there had not yet been any activities within the scope of the announced joint aviation exercises between Russia and Belarus. 

The ISW says that there are hostile forces on the border between Belarus and Ukraine, but

the attack option may be a reserve in Russia


Therefore, there they consider Minsk's direct participation in the war against Ukraine unlikely. 

At  the moment, the


sees no signs of offensive actions on the part of Belarus.

The leader of the Belarusian opposition, Svitlana Tykhanovskaya, is convinced that these exercises are aimed at scaring the Belarusian people with the possibility of war and diverting the attention of Ukrainians.


, she doubts the possibility of repeating a ground attack against Ukraine from the territory of Belarus.

However, Tykhanovskaya points out that the continuation of missile strikes is a very real scenario.

Meanwhile, the head of Rivne OVA Vitaly Koval warned on January 17 that aviation training in Belarus will affect the rhythm of life throughout Ukraine, and that

one of these training flights may become non-training.

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