The sounds of explosions and clashes of weapons of war continued to roar across Ukraine for years and showed no signs of ending.

It is inevitable that it will continue until the 1st anniversary of the war on February 24, amid speculation that

Either party may launch a "new wave of offensives"

However, the term suitable environment does not depend solely on natural factors.

But also to the readiness of combat as well. For the “Russian side” it can be seen that

There has been a new army formation since the end of last year.

Withdraw units from hard-to-defend positions.

to avoid unnecessary losses

as in the case of the retreat to Kharkiv province

in the northeast and the province of Kherson in the south.

Followed by a network of defenses.

Maintain Chaiyaphum

Delaying the time for elite combatants to have time to recuperate, replenish supplies, receive replacement equipment that was lost.

Changed the form from raiding territory to

Slow war of destruction (War of Attrition) concentrates on strategic points in Donetsk province.

(The least occupied territory

compared to other provinces such as Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson)

As seen in the Battle of the City, “Bakhmut” uses Wagner Group mercenaries to penetrate the defenses.

and forced Ukraine to send forces to dissolve

Victim of ranged weapons

Coupled with the use of cruise missiles to attack behind the house.

Cut off utility power, ammunition storage and weapons.

As for the "Ukrainian side", although it suffers from constant losses due to the factor of "volume" that cannot be compared to the Russian side.

But this was compensated by aid from the United States and its Western allies.

There's nothing left to "request" at any time (except for the manpower), so the momentum of the attack can be maintained.

After the Great Counterattack in Kharkiv and Kherson Provinces

There are sporadic reports that

Ukrainian units are still trying to exploit the Russian front's vulnerabilities in other battles.

especially Luhansk Province

Adjacent to Donetsk

for the reason that

If you break into Luhansk at any time

The Donetsk Front may be overturned.

cut off maintenance

All these factors lead to an important question:

Who will be ready when?

And who will be ready to launch the offensive first?

On the Russian side, it is known that

The combat reforms coincided with the mobilization of 300,000 "reserves" across the country to replace and reinforce the front.

Nearly half of them were already sent into battle.

while the rest were still in the cultivation process that took longer than the other group.

as well as upgrading the industrial production process.

to feed ammunition, weapons, new equipment into the battlefield

in parallel with negotiations for necessary and suitable procurement from allied nations and partners

Interestingly, some troops were moved into “Belarus” in northern Ukraine.

Until there was a doubt that there would be a "opening of a new front" or not, and if it actually invaded, what would it be?

will invade according to the original plan, which is to head to "Kiev" like at the beginning of the war last year

Or invade from Belarus heading to "Lviv City" in the west of Ukraine.

to cut supplies across the Polish border

Or is it really just a "deceitful plan" to put pressure on the North?

for the Ukrainian army to transfer some troops to the defensive

As for the Ukrainian side, it did not drop off at all.

There is a call for help.

Lobbying for the United States and its Western patrons to provide the Ukrainian army with better supplies has led to news reports that this spring the Ukrainian army will be armed with heavy North Atlantic Treaty Organization NATO weapons. on the battlefield

Whether it's a Bradley Panzer

Stryker vehicles

(armed with anti-tank missiles) and advanced anti-aircraft and missile systems "Patriot" from the United States, 105-mm cannon armored vehicles model AMX from France.

to the formidable battle tank

“Challenger” from England and “Leopard” from Germany.

It is worth noting that

Western aid steps have a purpose.

At the beginning of the year delivered anti-tank rockets.

to break up the Russian cavalry convoy

Mid-end send artillery - rocket Haimars.

to destroy troops and supplies in the rear

The new wave of aid this year sees Ukraine as being able to use it to "break through", reclaim territory and stem the destruction of its energy infrastructure.

because in the end

Negotiations for a settlement will never take place until one side has a clear advantage or disadvantage.

Weerapot Inthaphan