• With the war in Ukraine stretching into 2023, many analysts are speculating on what might happen to the conflict.

    which way it will proceed



  • Some analysts believe that

    The decisive battle may take place in autumn.

    After the Russians finished gathering all their strength.

    while some people expected

    Ukraine may be able to regain all the lost territories.



  • There is also the possibility that Vladimir Putin will declare a ceasefire and declare victory.

    because an important election is approaching

    But what no one wants to happen is

    As the war drags on into 2024



The war between Ukraine and Russia is about to enter its second calendar year. Russia launched an invasion of Ukraine that shocked the whole world on February 24, 2022, but an attack that no one else had ever seen.

It is expected that it will not last long until today.

Because Ukraine responded hard.

With financial support and weapons from Europe and the United States.



The fighting has left 6,826 civilians dead and 10,769 wounded, according to United Nations estimates.

And it is one of the main reasons for the biggest immigration crisis in more than 100 years. The energy war between the European Union and Russia has caused inflation to skyrocket around the world.



So how will this war continue?

Where will it end?

or finally

Will it be extended until 2024?



Ukrainian army tanks are parked in the city of Bakhmut in the eastern part of the country.

Russia launched a new round of offensives in the spring.

The coming winter has forced both Russian and Ukrainian armies to slow down their operations.

But the Ukrainians are now in a tightrope in fighting near Kreminna and Swatov, which could force the Russian army to withdraw up to 40 miles to the next natural defensive line.

That's close to where they escalated their offensive in February.

Hesitating at the stopping point



, Mr. Michael Clark, Assistant Director of the Institute for Strategic Studies

in the city of Exeter

In the UK, Ukraine is expected to have to halt operations in the southwest.

to revitalize the city of Kherson

But it is possible that they crossed over to the eastern bank of the Dnipro to attack the Russians unwittingly.

Aimed at a major road and railway link with Crimea.



But a major turning point in 2023 will be the spring offensive in Russia.

Putin previously revealed that

Only about 50,000 new recruits have been deployed to the front lines so far, while another 250,000 are training for war this year.



when Russian reinforcements arrived

A great war might break out again.

And it may be a destiny battle that

Who will win this war?



Ukraine can take back the land

If Russian reinforcements hadn't made such an impact

Another thing that could happen in 2023 is

Ukraine may be able to seize territories occupied by Russia outside of Crimea.

All can be returned

By now, they were able to take back more than half of the lost space.

Since the Feb. 24 lightning strike,



many experts have debated whether

Will Ukraine be able to regain its territory?

But Ukraine has shown time and time again how determined they are.

both in the defense of Mariupol

that few soldiers were able to withstand the Russian blockade for 82 days, buying precious time for other armies.

reunite and receive weapons from the west



a few months ago

The Ukrainian army has recently launched a stunning counter-attack in the east and south.

until the Russian soldiers had to retreat from the city of Kharkiv

and the city of Kherson

This led Philip Ingram, a former military intelligence officer, to believe that

the liberation of the city

Severodonetsk, Melitopol or even the city of Mariupol

it can be possible



But that depends on Western commitments to help Ukraine.

Because if the lack of support for weapons

It would be difficult for Ukraine to win back its territory.

or even resist Russian attacks



Endless protracted war

Barbara Sanchetta, from King's College London's war studies faculty, said Vladimir Putin expected Ukraine to suffer defeat.

Unexpectedly, there will be other countries.

to participate in this much

which is a gross miscalculation

make the war protracted

and do not know where it will end



Russia tries to use winter as a weapon

Attack on Ukraine's energy infrastructure

to destroy morale

But the Ukrainian side proved that they would not back down.

causing the war to drag on and on

While the possibility of a negotiation is almost nonexistent.

Because there must be at least one party who has to give up their own important demands.

which is unlikely to happen anytime soon



The end of wars like this usually comes only when

Damage to both life and property

So much that it destroys the commitment of either party.

Russia's top leadership may be discouraged first.

Until there was a political change within

or maybe the western side

who could not withstand domestic pressure on the costs of war

and reduced support for Ukraine



The Ukrainian war could turn into a long battle, economic and political battle.

This may continue even after 2023 is over.



Putin declares victory

as stated above

Russia did not expect the war in Ukraine to prolong, and 2023 is a very important year for Russia.

Especially for Vladimir Putin, as his government must prepare for the 2024 general election if he does not manage the Ukrainian war well.

or allow the United States

and Ukraine too

His campaign might be a problem.



This reason may be enough to give Putin a big decision.

declaring a cease-fire on its own

and declare victory

Claims that they have successfully defended Russian-speaking groups in the Donbass region.

which is the main target in this war

and was able to successfully seize land routes connecting Russia with Crimea

to create an image of a winner



But this ceasefire may not last long. Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky has declared that

They will take back all their territories, while the US and NATO may not give up.

Because they could not accept to allow the dictator to win the war



, Jens Stoltenberg.

The secretary-general of NATO once said that

“The price we pay is money.

while the price Ukrainians pay is blood

If the dictatorial government sees that

The use of force was rewarded.

We'll all have to pay a lot more.

And the world will become more dangerous for all of us.”



A hotel in Kiev was damaged.

after Russia fired a missile attack on 31 Dec 2022

Ukraine wins

The definition of victory for Ukraine is

The expulsion of the Russian army from the country and regaining all of its territories.

including Crimea

Russia annexed itself in 2014, the momentum that Ukraine built.

giving rise to hope that

They may succeed.

Even now, it's still too early.



Former US Army Commander Ben Hodges

Europe said he believed that Ukraine could do it.

Movement can be slower in winter.

But Ukraine will cope better than Russia.

Because he received equipment for winter use from both

UK, Canada and Germany



by January

Ukraine may already be in a position to launch the final operation to liberate Crimea.

If they can successfully recapture Melitopol City

Because it will allow the Ukrainian army to move to the Sea of ​​Azov.

Effectively cut off Crimean supplies and communications.



But the Russian side will not surrender Crimea.

That's why they are now reinforced in Melitopol City.

And if it's really the end

Putin may decide to use prohibited weapons such as chemical weapons or even nuclear weapons.

According to his words on New Year's Day,

This is a fight where the future of the nation is at stake








. Author:



Thitchon Sawangsri Source: sky, bbc, globaltimes