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Valery Gerasimov's appointment as commander of the occupation forces was probably partly a political decision.

Thus, Russian President Vladimir Putin

Vladimir Putin - Russian politician.

Born on October 7, 1952 in Leningrad, now St. Petersburg. Prez wanted to weaken the power of the siloviki, whose favorite was Sergei Surovkin.

This is stated in the daily analysis of the situation in Ukraine by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

On January 11, Russia's Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced that Chief of the General Staff, Army General Valery Gerasimov, will take over as theater commander as part of a sweeping shake-up of Russia's command structure for the war in Ukraine.

The Russian Ministry of Defense officially announced Gerasimov as the commander of the Joint Forces Group and appointed three deputies under Gerasimov's command: the previous commander of the theater of military operations in Ukraine from October 8 to January 11, Army General Sergey Surovikin, commander-in-chief of the Aerospace Forces;

Army General Oleg Salyukov, Commander-in-Chief of the Ground Forces, and Colonel-General Alexei Kim, Deputy Chief of the Russian General Staff.

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Surovikin served as commander of the Aerospace Forces since October 2017 and commanded Force Group South in Ukraine from June to October 2022, before being appointed overall theater commander.

Salyukov has been Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Ground Forces since 2014, and Kim has been Deputy Chief of the General Staff since September 2022 after several positions at Russian military higher education institutions.

The Russian Defense Ministry's public announcement of this restructuring stated that the change was necessary both to improve Russian command and control and to strengthen Russian operations in Ukraine.

The MoD's official announcement of the appointment states that these changes were made in connection with "the expansion of the scale of the tasks solved in the implementation of the [special military operation], the need to organize closer interaction between the services and types of armed forces, as well as improving the quality of all types of support and the effectiveness of command and control".

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Analysts say that the Russian Ministry of Defense and the silovaki, represented mainly by PMC "Wagner" financier Yevgeny Prigozhin, had opposing views on the methods of waging the war in Ukraine.

"Prigozhin has been increasingly critical of the Russian Defense Ministry's conduct of the war since late 2022. Igor Girkin, a former commander of Russian fighters in the Donbass and a prominent blogger, has made it clear that he would support the removal of the Russian President Vladimir Putin

Vladimir Putin - Russian politician.

Born on October 7, 1952 in Leningrad, now St. Petersburg. Prez from his post by directly criticizing him on January 10," ISW wrote.

Analysts add that Surovkin was a public favorite of Prigozhin and a rival of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.

"Gerasimov's promotion is likely partly a political move aimed at weakening the influence of the anti-MoD silovaki and a signal to Prigozhin and others to tone down their criticism of the MoD," the analysts wrote.

The Kremlin saw "positive dynamics" in the development of the war in Ukraine

At the same time, ISW believes that such a move could encourage the siloviki faction to continue dividing the Russian information space.

The inability of Russia's defense industrial base to overcome ammunition shortages will hamper its ability to support offensive operations in eastern Ukraine in 2023.

Analysts note that, according to statements by US and Ukrainian officials, since January 10, daily artillery fire by the occupier has dropped by 75%, the lowest level since February 24, 2022.

The ISW report suggested that Russian forces may have scaled back their shelling as a result of reduced supplies or may be reviewing their tactics.

After all, they are running out of 122mm and 152mm caliber and other reserves in the summer of 2022, suggesting that excessive artillery strikes will produce faster results.

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"Now the Russian Federation must transfer additional shells from the rear areas and purchase additional ammunition from foreign countries to counteract this shortage, which will lead to a decrease in the rate of fire," the experts said.

The Institute for the Study of War added: "There is growing recognition in Russia that fundamental problems such as ammunition shortages and the inability to supply troops are seriously hampering offensive operations."

Russian forces have not yet fully captured Soledar despite recent advances by Russian forces, and the eventual capture of Soledar is unlikely to allow Russian forces to capture Bakhmut.

ISW estimates that Russian forces have not yet captured Soledar, despite numerous claims from Russian sources.

Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly

Vladimir Putin - Russian politician.

Born October 7, 1952 in Leningrad, now St. Petersburg. Prez has issued secret and preemptive pardons to Russian convicts fighting with the Wagner group in Ukraine, potentially further enabling Wagner to operate with impunity on the battlefield.

Eva Merkacheva, a member of the Russian Human Rights Council, told Russian media outlet RIA Novosti on January 9 that prisoners recruited by Yevgeny Prigozhin's Wagner Group to fight in Ukraine are receiving pardons before being released from penal colonies.

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Preemptive presidential pardons are likely to further incentivize the recruitment of Wagner group fighters in penal colonies and allow Wagner group fighters to operate with a large degree of impunity in Ukraine.

The promise of a legal pardon for criminal activity likely incentivized convicts to sign contracts with Wagner, knowing that if they survived the operations in Ukraine, they would be released back into Russian society with a clean record after their deportation.

ISW has already noted that the Wagner Group fighters, recruited from prisons, are sent to the front in Ukraine mainly as an unnecessary shock force and often show incredibly poor discipline in the theater of operations.

On January 10, a Russian military blogger shared photos of Wagner group fighters in Soledar wearing Ukrainian uniforms, possibly constituting perfidy in violation of international law.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky

Volodymyr Zelenskyi is a Ukrainian artist, screenwriter, producer and politician. Volodymyr (sometimes repeated) that the renewal of the Russian offensive operation from Belarus remains unlikely. During the coordination meeting on the security of the northwestern borders of Ukraine on January 11, Zelenskyi said that Ukraine sees no advances in Belarus "other than strong statements".

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Key Findings:

On January 11, the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced that Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov was taking over as commander of the OEF as part of a major shake-up of Russia's command structure for the war in Ukraine.

Gerasimov's appointment was likely dictated by intentions for decisive Russian military action in 2023.

The elevation of Gerasimov and the Russian Ministry of Defense over Surovikin, a favorite of Prigozhin and a group of siloviki, is probably partly a political decision to restore the primacy of the Ministry of Defense in the Russian power struggle.

Gerasimov is likely to lead a disorganized command structure that will suffer from the persistent, persistent and self-reinforcing failures that largely led to the invasion of Ukraine in his original role.

The inability of the Russian defense industry to deal with ammunition shortages is likely to prevent Russian forces from conducting offensive operations in eastern Ukraine in 2023.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky

Volodymyr Zelensky is a Ukrainian artist, screenwriter, producer and politician. Volodymyr (sometimes) confirmed that the resumption of the Russian offensive from Belarus remains unlikely.

Despite the recent successes of the Russian forces, they have not yet fully captured Soledar, and the eventual capture of Soledar is unlikely to allow the Russian forces to capture Bakhmut.

Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly

Vladimir Putin - Russian politician.

Born October 7, 1952 in Leningrad, now St. Petersburg. Secretly and warningly pardoned Russian prisoners fighting on the side of the "Wagner" group in Ukraine, which may allow "Wagner" to act with impunity in the theater of operations.

Russian forces continued with limited counter-attacks near Svatovo, while Ukrainian forces continued counter-offensive operations near Kremena and struck in the rear in Luhansk Oblast.

Russia's claims about the operations of the Wagner Group and conventional Russian forces in Soledar likely reflect competing claims of responsibility for Russia's recent remarkable tactical successes in Ukraine.

Russian forces launched ground strikes on the front line in the Donetsk region.

Ukrainian officials said that because of the Ukrainian strikes, Russian forces were withdrawing key equipment and restructuring their logistics networks in southern Ukraine.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has announced a plan to modernize Russia's defense industrial base.

Vladimir Putin

Volodymyr Zelensky