Russia is no longer capable of winning a war against Ukraine, and the result of its defeat could be a disintegration into parts, or a civil war, or even a war between different parts of the state.

Oleksandr Motil, professor of political sciences at Rathgarh University, USA, told about this in an interview with TSN.ua.

He noted that even in February 2022, no one could imagine that Russia could cease to exist at all.

Everyone was convinced that Russia would win the war, and no one could imagine a Ukrainian victory. 

"And over the past 11 months, we have seen that everything is just the opposite.

Russia is no longer capable of winning

. It will definitely not win. Ukraine can win. It is still an open question whether it will win. But at least there is hope and expectation that it will be so . Therefore, the vision of Russia has completely changed. And even more so, Ukraine. Russia has turned from a superpower that is invincible into a very victorious and no longer a superpower. It is no longer the second best and largest army in the world. This ratio has completely changed, as well as the attitude of the West , politicians, scientists, analysts, etc. People are now thinking that Russia may lose," Motil said.

What will happen after the defeat of Russia in the war

The professor considers the disintegration of the state into parts as one of the scenarios after the defeat of the Russian Federation in the war.

"

Russia may split into parts, a civil war may occur, or a war in general between different parts of Russia.

I am personally convinced that this is not only possible, but also very plausible. This is no longer just a fantasy that could come true under certain circumstances. Every day it becomes more and more real," the scientist noted.

He added that the West should seriously think about how to act if the current Russia really does not exist and 5-20 independent states will emerge in its place.

Possible "not only strife among the elites" in Moscow and the Kremlin, but also bloodshed, civil war.

Motyl also recalled the events of 1990-1991 - when the 

West was very cautious about the possibility of the collapse of the USSR.

The then President of the USA George Bush Sr. spoke before the members of the Verkhovna Rada with instructions that Ukrainians "should not engage too much in any kind of nationalism." 

"But in a few months, the USSR was gone. Everyone was taken by surprise, no one expected it. Fortunately, it was a peaceful end. In general, there were no terrible cataclysms. But now it cannot be ruled out," said the political science professor.

Putin will hold on to power

He assured that Putin will hold on to his power until the last second. 

"As we see and know from the war in Ukraine,

he (Putin - ed.) is ready for anything

: to sacrifice the Russian people themselves in order to stay in power. And he is already doing this, by the way. So there

are different options here, which can be very unpleasant for everyone

, not only for Russians, Ukrainians, but also for America and the whole world. Therefore, we need to think about it and somehow prepare. At least, so that we are not caught by surprise. Or, perhaps, we need to speed up this process But this is another, more difficult issue, because then it means undermining Putin's power itself," Motil summarized.

We will remind, the possibility of a civil war in Russia was also admitted by the oppositionist, publicist Andriy Pipontkovskyi.

He drew attention to the fact that the Russian elites already want the results of the war against Ukraine and are preparing for a war inside the Russian Federation with the help of private armies for a huge redistribution of property.

We should add that according to the results of a survey by the Atlantic Council analytical center, 46% of foreign policy experts expressed the opinion that by 2033 Russia may become a state that did not exist, or simply disintegrate. 

Read also:

  • Ukraine news

  • War in Ukraine

  • News of Ukraine: video

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