Briefly:

  • Both in November and December, we could see an increase in the militaristic propaganda rhetoric.

  • Minister of Defense Hrenin spoke even more constructively and cautiously than the author of the interview Lyudmila Gladkaya.

  • Propaganda conducts a conversation in the style of "if necessary, we will fight.

    If we are attacked, we will fight."

  • Before February 24, 2022, Belarusian and Russian propaganda said that the West was lying and that there would be no attack on Ukraine.

  • Propaganda may not work to support Russian aggression, but it works to demotivate people who are against the war.

  • The fact that Belarus has become a staging ground for an attack on Ukraine is a complete taboo.

Pavliuk Bykovsky

- Has the official propaganda changed in recent weeks, when the issue of a possible new aggression from the territory of Belarus to Ukraine began to be actively discussed?

Is propaganda preparing Belarusians for war?

- Propaganda carries out tasks "from above", not necessarily knowing what the real purpose of this "above" is.

So, in our situation, the conversation can be about the preparation of a real attack from the Belarusian platform on Ukraine, and about the fact that only the impression that such an attack is being prepared can be created.

Therefore, it is impossible to make clear conclusions.

But both in November and December we could notice an increase in militaristic rhetoric.

There are more and more materials that talk about the "defense of the motherland", that "war is nearby, and Belarus is an island of stability", "we are not participating in the war, but if attacked, we must defend ourselves", "NATO is increasingly concentrating around Belarusian borders".

These narratives were present before, but now there are much more of them.

I would especially like to note the interview of Minister of Defense Viktar Khrenin to the newspaper "Belarus Segodnya" on November 30.

It shows that the minister spoke even more constructively and cautiously than the author of the interview Lyudmila Gladka, who simply forced him to agree with the narratives that she proposed.

These were not just "difficult questions" that journalists sometimes ask to push interlocutors to certain answers - it was a whole concept.

At the same time, Hrenin spoke about the constructive position of the Western military, which is in contact with the Belarusian ones, and so on.

That is, it turned out that the propagandist was a bigger hawk than the Minister of Defense.

If we talk about Lukashenka, he makes statements aimed at different audiences - sometimes he makes opposite conclusions in one speech.

But the rhetoric about exercises, about the concentration of troops, about Ukraine's preparation for war — all this is chewed up by propaganda very actively.

- In 2022, Belarusian television showed clips where the Belarusian military declared: "We are not going anywhere, we are staying."

Do they continue to show or is this message already cancelled?

— That clip was recorded in response to a video recorded by the Ukrainian side, where Ukrainians said that there is no need for Belarusian soldiers to go to fight in Ukraine.

So it was then a specific reaction to a specific event, and now those clips are no longer shown.

Now the propaganda is talking in the style: "If necessary, we will fight."

If we are attacked, we will fight."

It can be recalled that before February 24, 2022, Belarusian and Russian propaganda said that the West was lying, that there would be no attack on Ukraine - but then they immediately started saying that it was a preventive response to Ukraine's aggression.

It is not at all difficult to "change shoes" for propaganda.

Another issue is that they would like to tell people what to prepare them for, but they don't always know what to do.

They say that there is no hidden mobilization, it is just a recount of personnel in the military offices - but people see that something is happening here, and it is disturbing.

Against the background of general anxiety and war in the region, Lukashenka's words that we must defend ourselves look more convincing - for those people who trust Lukashenka and the state media.

- However, it follows from your words that so far this message is twofold?

So far, it cannot be said that all propaganda has switched to preparing for war?

Even in the USSR there was no such thing in June 1941.

- There is a significant difference.

Then, in June 1941, Soviet propaganda proved in every possible way that there would be no war.

Now it's the other way around: it's being said that there are many provocations and there may be a war.

At the same time, it can be noted that the fall of the rocket on the territory of Belarus turned out to be a less significant factor than the fall of the rocket in Poland.

Propaganda used that story to the fullest to prove that problems may arise among Ukraine's allies and they will clash.

And the story of the fall of the rocket in Belarus, they actually did not promote much, the tone was very low.

I think the issue of responsibility and possible consequences restrained the propagandists here.

After all, if they directly fell on Ukraine, it could turn into a real reason for aggravating the situation.

- We see how GUBAZIK arrests people for any pro-Ukrainian manifestations, for the colors of the Ukrainian flag, for words of support for Ukraine in social networks.

Formally speaking, this is not a violation of any legislation, and Belarus is not at war with Ukraine.

To what extent is the Russian narrative that Ukrainians are enemies being transmitted to Belarusian propaganda?

- We in the Media-IQ project already noted in the autumn of 2021 that Belarusian propaganda began to use "alternative" nominations: instead of "Ukrainian government" - "Ukrainian junta", instead of "armed forces" - "Ukrainian fascists", "nationalists" and so on. .

If the propaganda received such a go-ahead, it clearly shows on whose side the ruling regime is loyal.

And GUBAZIK, as the main political punitive body, simply fulfills its punitive function.

But I would still dilute the activity of punitive bodies with propaganda.

We can see from the sociological polls that Belarusians are in no way interested in the war in Ukraine, and have not massively supported Russian aggression.

So we see that propaganda is not achieving its goals here.

However, it cannot be said that it is completely ineffective.

It may not work to support Russian aggression, but it works to demotivate people who are against the war.

When people read the stories that happen in the walls of GUBAZIK, it scares people, they may not dare to express their thoughts.

- Can we say that Belarusian propaganda has completely changed to Russian propaganda today, or does it retain some of its distinctiveness?

Or has it simply become a regional part of Kremlin propaganda?

- The features have been preserved.

Yes, there was a certain synchronization with Russian propaganda, but separate interests remained.

The emphasis is on the fact that "we do not participate in the war, we do various humane things."

They solve different tasks.

They try not to upset the Belarusian audience with the fact that Russian troops are present in the country, the fact that Belarus became a staging ground for the attack on Ukraine in February is a complete taboo.

Propaganda does not even mention the idea that aggression against Ukraine may be carried out again from the territory of Belarus.

Their narrative: "Belarus can be attacked, we need to defend ourselves."

  • Vitaly Tsygankov

    Vitaly Tsygankov graduated from the Faculty of Journalism of BSU.

    One of the two founders of the first non-governmental news agency BelaPAN.

    He worked in "Zvyazda" newspapers, was a correspondent in Belarus of the Russian "Nezavisimaya Gazeta", Associated Press, columnist in "Svaboda" newspaper.

    On Belarusian Freedom since 1994.

    Correspondent of Russian Freedom in Belarus.


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