CSIS listed the motivations behind the actions of various countries and their political and diplomatic influences when the conflict in the Taiwan Strait occurred in this military push report, and listed Taiwan, China, the United States, and Japan as the main countries participating in the war.

The picture shows the US Navy patrolling the South China Sea.

(European News Agency)

[Instant News/Comprehensive Report] The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a think tank in Washington DC, announced on the 9th the results of the latest Taiwan Strait conflict war game, simulating various scenarios of the People’s Liberation Army’s invasion of Taiwan in 2026. In 24 war games, it finally concluded that The People's Liberation Army is likely to end in failure, and the United States, China, and Taiwan will all pay a tragic price in the Taiwan Strait conflict.

CSIS listed the motivations behind the actions of various countries and their political and diplomatic influences when the conflict in the Taiwan Strait occurred in this military push report, and listed Taiwan, China, the United States, and Japan as the main countries participating in the war.

Taiwan

CSIS made basic assumptions for each country before the military push. The CSIS military push assumes that Taiwan will strongly resist the invasion of the Communist army. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Taiwan’s military expenditure accounts for about 4.4% of GDP. Taiwan officials have repeatedly declared Determination to defend the island, but overall morale is hard to predict.

In the face of a Chinese attack, Taiwan may choose to surrender rather than fight, especially the reports of CCP infiltration of Taiwan's military are worrying, but the basic military situation is still assuming that Taiwan will do what it can to resist, and if Taiwan surrenders immediately, This would mean that no war took place, making it impossible to analyze the wargame, and thus Taiwan morale is not a case scenario.

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China

On the Chinese side, since China has already decided to launch an invasion of Taiwan, China has the advantage of being able to decide when the war begins and use this tactical flexibility to surprise and pre-empt strikes.

China will gradually expand the scale of military exercises in the years before launching an attack on Taiwan, so as to create uncertainty about the timing of the Taiwan invasion. In this way, it will be difficult for other countries to know which action is a real Taiwan offense.

United States

CSIS pushes the basic assumption that "the United States will immediately intervene in conflicts across the Taiwan Strait." Although there is no formal treaty between the United States and Taiwan, the United States and Taiwan have deep historical ties. The US policy also opposes unilateral changes in the status quo of the Taiwan Strait. The United States has never given up using force to defend Taiwan. possibility.

At the beginning of the conflict in the Taiwan Strait, the United States had no substantial military presence in Taiwan. Although it would be more advantageous militarily to station more U.S. troops, it would provide China with a clear reason to declare war.

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In addition to "the United States will immediately intervene in the conflict across the Taiwan Strait," the Bingtui case also assumes that the United States "delays combat operations for one to two days" after the conflict occurs. At this time, countries will also want to understand the current situation and hesitate to take military action. However, this There could be devastating consequences.

Under the assumption that the United States will delay combat operations for 14 days, the U.S. authorities will try to engage with China through diplomatic means to prevent China from invading and maintain Taiwan’s autonomy without paying the price of direct conflict. After China’s invasion, diplomatic The work will last about a week, and when the diplomacy fails, the US declares a no-fly zone over Taiwan, drawing strong opposition from China, and when the diplomacy fails, the US falls into direct conflict.

Under the more extreme "Taiwan Isolation Simulation" scenario of the war game, the United States did not send any type of U.S. combat troops to the Taiwan Strait conflict, which led Japan and other countries to believe that the risk of intervening in the conflict was too great, so they remained neutral.

Japan

In the Japanese part, Bingtui basically assumes that Japan can influence the Taiwan Strait conflict in two main ways, the first is to allow the United States to operate from bases in Japan, and the second is to directly intervene in the conflict by the Japanese Self-Defense Forces, instructing the Japanese Self-Defense Forces to attack Japanese territory only in China (including stationed in Japan U.S. military bases) before engaging the Chinese military, and allowing the Self-Defense Forces to conduct offensive operations in areas far away from Japanese territory after participating in the war, which is also the principle of least resistance to Japanese diplomacy.

Denying the US access to Japanese bases would undermine the long-term US-Japan alliance that has supported Japan's security policy for 70 years after World War II.

In addition, the Japanese Self-Defense Forces may only participate in Japanese territorial defense operations after entering the war. In this case, Japanese legal and political restrictions will prevent the Self-Defense Forces from conducting operations in areas outside Japanese territory.

Under the more extreme assumption, Japan could prevent all U.S. military activities on Japanese soil if Japan remained completely neutral.

Other countries

In the Other Nations section, China's invasion of Taiwan would create a dilemma for all countries in the immediate region, who are more likely to fear China's close influence in the Indo-Pacific than the United States, and all countries have reason to fear Chinese conquest Taiwan may strengthen its position afterwards; and all countries have reason to remain friendly with the United States, because the United States will demand access, stationing and overflight rights.

In addition, participating in conflicts across the Taiwan Strait may bring risks. Whether it is active participation or passive participation, for most countries, the safest approach is to remain neutral.

India, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam are all worried about Chinese occupation but also afraid of Chinese power. Although these countries will sympathize with the United States and Taiwan, they do not want to expose themselves to Chinese attack.

Therefore, these four countries will take a passive approach to participating in the conflict, allowing the US military to fly over and transit the border, but they will not participate in the operation, nor will they be allowed to conduct operations from their territory.

In addition to being afraid of China's armed forces, South Korea must also pay attention to North Korea's hostile actions, whether it is at the behest of North Korea's high-level officials or China's actions to distract the attention of the United States and Japan.

The Bingtui project assumes that due to the urgency of the conflict in the Taiwan Strait, the United States will use its troops in South Korea, but will still leave some U.S. troops in South Korea to deter North Korea.

As for Australia, due to the close cooperation between the United States and Australia, Australia will assist the United States in operations and participate in the fighting in the South China Sea, but will not participate in operations around Taiwan.

In terms of the Philippines, Bingtui basically assumes that the Philippines remains neutral, because the Philippine military is relatively weak compared to the Chinese military. In addition, the overall diplomatic changes during the administration of former Philippine President Duterte tried to balance the interests of the United States and China in the South China Sea.

North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and European countries, China's huge economic strength and European countries' lack of territory in the Pacific region have prevented these countries from closely participating in China's affairs. If Europe wants to regard China as a "direct threat", it needs to Participate in "World War III" and may bring the potential threat of nuclear war.

Yet Europe is also wary of Chinese authoritarianism and wants to preserve a liberal international order.

Bingtui assumes that Japan can influence the Taiwan Strait conflict in two main ways, the first is to allow the United States to operate from bases in Japan, and the second is the direct intervention of the Japanese Self-Defense Forces in the conflict.

The picture shows the Japanese Ground Self-Defense Force soldiers.

(Bloomberg)