A think tank in Washington recently put forward a report on the Taiwan Strait War, simulating what might happen if the Communist Army invaded Taiwan in 2026, and concluded that "the invasion of Taiwan will not succeed, but (all parties) will pay a heavy price."

(The picture is taken from the U.S. Seventh Fleet and Google Map; synthesized by this newspaper)

[Instant News/Comprehensive Report] A think tank in Washington recently put forward a report on the Taiwan Strait War, simulating what might happen if the Communist Army invaded Taiwan in 2026, and concluded that "invasion of Taiwan will not succeed, but (all parties) The price is heavy" conclusion.

The first chapter of the report explains the relationship between the United States, China and Taiwan, as well as the current trends in China observed by experts, analyzes the possible conflicts in the Taiwan Strait, and emphasizes the necessity of conducting this research.

The Washington think tank "Center for Strategic and International Studies" (CSIS) released a tweet about the war in the Taiwan Strait. , Taiwan will also end badly.

In this Bingtui report, 24 combat situations were simulated. Mark Cancian, a senior advisor to CSIS and one of the three leaders of Bingtui research, also pointed out that there is a lack of unclassified Bingtui for external review of the US-China conflict. However, it is impossible for the public and decision makers to truly understand the development trend of the conflict across the Taiwan Strait, emphasizing the necessity of this study.

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The first chapter of the report explains why this research is necessary.

The report pointed out that with the rise of China as an economic and military power, it intends to challenge the status of the United States, coupled with China's coercive policies against Taiwan and other regional partners of the United States in Asia, and the bipartisan focus of the United States on balancing China's economic and military power. , the current US-China conflict is becoming increasingly fierce. Among them, Taiwan is widely regarded as the most dangerous potential flashpoint of the US-China conflict. The Chinese Communist Party has always regarded Taiwan as the only province since 1949. In addition to continuously suppressing Taiwan, It has never given up the use of force against Taiwan. In recent years, China has dispatched military aircraft to disrupt Taiwan more frequently.

The report pointed out that in response to the tense situation in China and Taiwan, the United States has always maintained a policy of strategic ambiguity and avoided intensifying conflicts. The United States also maintains close military ties with Taiwan, and the United States will provide Taiwan with the weapons it needs for self-defense.

Although the report does not presuppose a position on whether the United States is willing to intervene in the Taiwan conflict by military means, it is believed that the United States will intervene under certain circumstances, so it is valuable to evaluate the results of such intervention.

The report pointed out that senior U.S. military officials are worried that the Chinese military may choose to use a military solution to deal with the Taiwan issue. Philip S. Davidson, former commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, also pointed out that the threat of China’s invasion of Taiwan is obvious. , and other military officials have expressed similar views.

Although some people have reservations, the New York Times and the well-known American journal Foreign Affairs have recently published articles emphasizing the risk of conflict in the Taiwan Strait. The Freeman Institute of International Studies at Stanford University Oriana Skylar Mastro, a researcher at the Spogli Institute for International Studies, pointed out that there have been disturbing signs in recent months that Beijing is reconsidering armed unification; A fantasy, but now they think it is a possibility.

Former U.S. White House deputy national security adviser Robert Blackwill and former State Department official Philip Zelikow also pointed out that China is now in the pre-war political and military preparation stage.

The report also reiterated that they are not saying that China is about to launch a war, but China's recent movements are indeed actions that a country will take when it enters the pre-war mode.

Mark Milley, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, also pointed out that China's ability to invade and seize Taiwan is accelerating, and it plans to have the ability to attack Taiwan by force by 2027.

The report also compares the Taiwan Strait conflict with the Russia-Ukraine war, and points out that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has reminded the outside world that cross-border invasion is possible, and speculation about China’s invasion of Taiwan is also inevitable. Nor is it unthinkable.

The report also pointed out that although there are similarities between the two, for example, Russia and China each believe that Ukraine and Taiwan are not a sovereign state, but a part of the country, and both China and Russia are authoritarian; Differences, such as the US's deeper historical ties to Taiwan, seem more committed to Taiwan's than Ukraine's defense.

Compared with the Russia-Ukraine war, if there is a conflict in the Taiwan Strait, the United States is more likely to intervene directly.

The second important difference is that China's attack on Taiwan would be much more challenging, because it is more difficult to cross the 160-kilometer-wide sea than to cross a land border, and there is no turning back after landing.

While a Russian military defeat and a strong diplomatic response might give China pause, the Russian invasion of Ukraine serves as a reminder that U.S. deterrence can fail, that territorialism is dangerous, and that conflict is still possible.

However, the report also mentioned that because China's governance decisions are very secretive, its views on how China views the Russia-Ukraine war are always based on a high degree of speculation.

At the end of the first chapter, it was also mentioned that although there are many organizations and units currently conducting war games against possible conflicts between the United States and China and the Taiwan Strait, their focus is usually on escalation dynamics and politics, rather than analyzing the results of military operations, and these Bingtui are mostly classified, usually do not specify specific parameters, only reveal some details about the results, and imply heavy casualties and adverse results.

The report pointed out that they focused this report on what would happen if the Chinese military invaded Taiwan, so they would not analyze other possibilities, such as China's blockade of Taiwan, the United States' blockade of China, and other different strategies, nor would they analyze the US's strategy against Taiwan. Taiwan policy, because it is impossible to determine whether China will take any military action at present.

Of the relevant possibilities, however, an invasion of Taiwan is the most dangerous threat and therefore the first course of action to be analyzed.