Military expert Oleksandr Kovalenko assessed the possibility of Ukraine leaving the 1991 borders by the end of 2023 under two scenarios - negative and positive.

He told about this in an interview with "UNIAN".

Thus, according to him,

under a positive scenario, Ukraine will liberate all territories occupied by the Russian Federation by the end of this year


"There is always either a positive scenario or a negative one. The positive scenario is, of course, an exit to the borders of 1991 by the end of 2023," the expert emphasized.

At the same time, Kovalenko also noted that

there is also a negative scenario of the development of events at the front


"I do not rule out that in a negative scenario, we can liberate the mainland of Ukraine by the end of 2023. With the Crimean peninsula, the story may move to 2024," he said 

and explained what the negative scenario consists of


"But there is also a negative one. What does it consist of? We talked with you at the very beginning about preparing the conditions for a counteroffensive, which could last three, four, or five months, both in Kharkiv region and in the right-bank Kherson region. And we discussed the issue of that in Luhansk Oblast these conditions are ready, but several factors are missing to implement counteroffensive actions. If we are talking about Zaporizhzhia Oblast, this process is now taking place, as well as in the left-bank Kherson Oblast. That is, everything is in the process, two or three months and, perhaps, something is still being implemented, let's see," Kovalenko said.

According to him,

it will be more difficult to liberate the territories occupied in 2014, because the line of defense of the Russian Federation there will slow down the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces


infrastructure facilities of the Russian occupiers on the peninsula and the destruction of the Crimean bridge in order to completely level logistics (a scenario similar to the Antoniv bridges in the Kherson region) will take a certain period of time.

In the context of all these locations, we are going to 2024," the military expert added.

Forecasts regarding the liberation of Crimea

We will remind that according to forecasts of the military, experts and politicians, the year 2023 should become decisive in Russia's war against Ukraine.

Thus, the head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, 

Kyrylo Budanov 

, reported that already in May 2023, Ukraine will liberate Crimea, which is occupied by the Russian Federation.

According to him, this will happen through a combination of military force and diplomacy.

The famous American political scientist, director of the Center for the Development of Democracy at Stanford University, 

Francis Fukuyama

 , also predicted that the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 2023 could indeed liberate Crimea.

He considers the liberation of Crimea in 2023 quite probable.

This will happen after the Armed Forces de-occupy Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions.

The former commander of the US Army in Europe  ,

Ben Godges

 , believes that 


will completely liberate Crimea

in the  summer.

"I expect that they will liberate Crimea by August," he concluded.

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