Russia can start the second wave of mobilization from January 15 and mobilize up to half a million people - such data are provided by Ukrainian intelligence.

The invaders will use the replenishment to prepare a multi-pronged offensive.

But instead of a strategic advantage in the war with Ukraine, mobilization can create big problems for the Russian command.

TSN.ua collected details and comments of experts regarding the new wave of mobilization in the Russian Federation.

Mobilization in the Russian Federation, Belarus and the occupied territories

Ukrainian Defense Minister 

 addressed Russian conscripts and warned that at the beginning of January, the Russian authorities will close the borders to men, then declare martial law.

, a representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine 

, said that the second wave of mobilization in Russia should be waited for after the New Year and Christmas holidays, and up to half a million Russians can be mobilized.

According to Chernyak, the draft decree on additional mobilization already exists.

This time it will be held primarily in large cities of the Russian Federation, such as Moscow and St. Petersburg.

Estonian intelligence reported that preparations for mobilization are already underway, in particular, in the Krasnodar region, a printing house received an order to print 5,000 mobilization summonses.

Preparations for mobilization activities are also taking place in the territories of Ukraine occupied by Russia.

In particular, according to the Center of National Resistance, a plan to mobilize 2,000 people has been submitted to the military commissars in Horlivka.

For this, the number of patrols in the city has been increased.

Also in Crimea, security companies began to train Cossack-type "volunteers".

In turn, Belarusian opposition politician

said that the self-proclaimed president of Belarus, Oleksandr Lukashenko, could at any time announce mobilization and join the war against Ukraine.

According to his information, "the registration of all conscripts in Belarus is practically completed."

Latushko also reported that almost all employees of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Belarus were asked to hand in their passports so that they could not leave the country in case of mobilization.

Earlier, British military expert

said that Russia in Belarus is actually conducting a certain form of mobilization, within which men must register for the military, and anyone who tries to leave the country is tried to be stopped. 

Where and when the Russian Federation will use "mobikes"

Russia will need approximately two months to create military formations

from the mobilized, says 

, a representative of the GUR Ministry of Defense .

"We expect that they will conduct an offensive in Donetsk and Kharkiv regions, as well as possibly in Zaporizhzhia, but will defend in Kherson region and Crimea. This is the number of people they will need for such a task," the intelligence representative said. 

Military expert 

 said that the enemy has plans to create a strike group involving the mobilized. 

"

. They are forming reserves. Now they are at the stage of training, then coordinating and equipping these shock troops groups, and then reserves for them," says the expert.

Musienko explained what tasks the Russian army will solve with the help of reserves:

"I am convinced that they will not be able to capture Kyiv or most of Ukraine. There is no visible concentration of such forces today. But it is quite important for them to preserve the land corridor to Crimea, to preserve at least what they occupy, and it is possible to continue their success, that is, full-fledged seizure of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, and even Zaporizhzhia".

"Army of bums": what are the main problems of Putin's mobilization

During the second wave of mobilization in the Russian Federation, Russian President Vladimir Putin will not be able to provide hundreds of thousands of "mobs" even with bulletproof vests and helmets, military and political analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko believes.

"I do not see the possibility of the Russian army somehow providing such a large number of mobilized. In the future, this army will increasingly resemble such an army, which will consist entirely of infantry, moreover, not just unprofessional and low-quality, but not equipped with elementary things - bulletproof vests, helmets, etc. It will be a kind of army of homeless people," Kovalenko believes.

holds the same opinion 

.

"You can announce a mobilization, call up half a million people or a million, but this does not change the combat capability of the army. Combat capability exists when these people know how to fight, when they have something to fight for, when they are equipped, fed, shod, and so on," he explained. ex-minister

In his opinion, the next 300-500 thousand mobilized Russians "will not be armed with modern weapons, but with rifles from the First World War."

Military expert 

 believes that mobilization can become a very difficult task for the Kremlin and "mobs" will have to be "caught with dogs".

As the expert noted, the Russians "want to close the border, realizing that they are not recruiting the required number."

In his opinion, the lack of mobilized personnel may be one of the reasons for the group's unpreparedness for the new offensive.

"This may become one of the factors that 

," Zhdanov said.

Read also:

• Ukraine news

• War in Ukraine

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