Shinyuki Ogasawara, a professor at Tokyo University of Foreign Studies, Japan.

(file photo)

[Central News Agency] Wang Hongwei, a member of the Kuomintang, won the by-election of the legislators of Taipei's 3rd constituency.

Ogasawara, a professor at Tokyo University of Foreign Studies in Japan, analyzed today that the support structure of the KMT in this area is strong. Based on the current political atmosphere, Wu Yinong's election campaign is going well. The DPP may feel relieved, but the DPP has stopped falling. It's too early to tell.

After Jiang Wanan, a member of the 10th legislator of the 3rd constituency of Taipei City (Zhongshan, Beisongshan), became the mayor of Taipei, the vacant by-election was held on the 8th. According to the statistics of the Taipei City Election Committee, the turnout rate was 43.35%. KMT candidate Wang Hongwei won 60,000 519 votes, 52.26% of the votes were elected, DPP candidate Wu Yinong received 54,739 votes, 47.27% of the votes.

Please read on...

Ogasawara is pleased to have received attention for accurately predicting the results of Taiwan’s elections in the past. Today, he released his views on this legislative by-election through Facebook, pointing out that the KMT has always had a strong support base in the third constituency. After changing to a single constituency system, the Democratic Progressive The party has never won in this constituency.

He analyzed that Wang Hongwei's election was in line with expectations, but it was not an overwhelming victory.

Based on the current political climate, Wu Yinong can be said to have played well. The DPP may feel very relieved, but it is too early to say that the DPP has stopped its decline.

Ogasawara said that the voter turnout rate in this by-election was 43.4%, which was only a showdown between the core supporters of the two sides. Although the support rate of the DPP has not fallen to the bottom, it cannot be said that the decline of the DPP has ended; Tsai Ing-wen and the DPP themselves have come to put the brakes on the DPP's headwinds.

Ogasawara observed that Wang Hongwei successfully resorted to cooperating with Jiang Wan'an, and gathered many KMT public officials and Olympic aid. The large-scale campaign on the last night before the election continued the Blue Army's advantage in this constituency; on the other hand, Wu Yinong insisted on his unique campaign style, The party's actions also appear to be relatively slow, and the sense of crisis of the entire party has not been fully conveyed to the grassroots.

Regarding the narrowing of the vote gap between Wu Yinong and Wang Hongwei, Ogasawara believes that since there is no third force in this by-election, the DPP has no reason to be happy; if compared with the Taipei mayoral election in November last year, both Wang Hongwei and Wu Yinong won the support of Huang Shanshan Or, it's just that Wu Yinong won more.

Wu Yinong raised the issue of relocating Songshan Airport this time. Ogasawara believes that Songshan Airport is a difficult issue that has been debated for many years. It is too sudden to propose the relocation without specific discussions by the Cai government; and it is normal to have two airports around the capital, one of which is Standby, and the mobility of loosing equipment has a great impact on Taiwan's security.

Ogasawara pointed out that the significance of Songki must be considered from the perspective of dealing with the "grey zone" before China's full-scale invasion of Taiwan. Songji's "mobility" allows US military aircraft (transport planes) to land immediately in the center of Taipei when there is any movement An example is the former US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi and other senators who took special planes to visit Taiwan.