On December 27 last year, President Tsai Ing-wen announced that from New Year's Day 2024, the compulsory military service period will be restored to one year.

(file photo)

◎Richard D. Fisher, Jr.

For Taiwan, Japan, and the United States, 2023 must be a year of decisive mobilization of people and military resources, as the Chinese Communist Party has been mobilizing its people and resources for forty years, not only to destroy Taiwan's freedom, but also to advance its murderous march towards global supremacy.

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On December 25 last year, the CCP’s Christmas gift to Taiwan was military coercion. Seventy-one combat aircraft were dispatched to harass Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ). This is the largest invasion so far.

Earlier on December 12, the Communist Army also dispatched 18 sorties of H-6 (H-6) bombers produced by Xi'an Aircraft Industry Group Corporation to harass Taiwan, capable of launching 108 land attack cruisers. Missiles (LACM) attack Taiwan.

The CCP is poised to launch its battle for hegemony

At the same time, from December 17 to 27, the Chinese Navy's largest aircraft carrier strike group consisting of eight ships, centered on the "Liaoning" aircraft carrier, and four Russian Navy combat ships jointly performed how to Control of the Second Island Chain to prevent the United States from rushing to aid Taiwan from Japan and Guam, thereby dominating the invasion route, and the Japanese islands located seventy miles east of Taiwan.

From the Central Pacific exercise area where China and Russia conduct drills, the Chinese Navy's J-15 attack fighter jets (produced by Shenyang Aircraft Industry Group Corporation) on the Liaoning ship can directly reach the Australian military base where the US Marine Corps is stationed, and the US Air Force B-52 A base where strategic bombers may be stationed in the future.

These aggressive maneuvers make it clear that the CCP and its army, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), are fighting the entire free world, not just the free people of Taiwan.

A series of battles for hegemony led by the CCP may unfold within months or years.

However, Taipei, Tokyo and Washington did not take immediate action to counter the Chinese threat after realizing that it was a real threat.

In Washington, the Biden administration is unwilling to deploy the maximum military force and pass up the opportunity to stop the CCP’s path to hegemony for at least a decade.

The seriousness of the CCP/PLA threat is closely related to the people of Taiwan.

On December 27 last year, President Tsai Ing-wen announced that starting from New Year's Day 2024, the compulsory military service period will be restored to one year, and six to eight months of military training will be added. The training content will focus on how to use individual soldiers Launched anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles.

The decision has long been encouraged by Washington, but the announcement was delayed until after local elections on Nov. 26 out of concern that it could heighten Taiwanese anxiety.

Cao Xingcheng suggested that Taiwan should adopt

However, the poll results released by the Taiwan Foundation for Democracy on December 30 showed that if China uses force against Taiwan on the grounds of "reunification," the chances are as high as 71%.

Nine percent of Taiwanese are willing to fight to "defend Taiwan"; if China invades Taiwan by force because of Taiwan's declaration of independence, 63, 8% of Taiwanese are willing to stand up and "fight."

This seems to indicate that the Taiwanese welcome the Taiwan government's more active call to mobilize all Chinese people to participate in national defense construction.

In 2023, the Taiwanese government could produce a variety of public television and radio announcements detailing household and local-level preparations for war, including how to evade PLA bombing, stockpile food and medical supplies, basic wounded care, and organize community mutual aid committees, And deployment of student survival packs for public schools.

In addition to planning to increase the training of reservists, the Taiwanese government should heed the advice of industrialist Robert Tsao and former chief of staff Gen. Li Ximing to procure large quantities of small arms to create and equip local civil defense forces.

Based on the seriousness of the CCP/PLA threat, Taiwan officials have reason to call on the International Red Cross to mobilize international humanitarian groups to provide assistance to Taiwan before the CCP launches a blockade or invasion.

There has been a welcome shift in policy in both Washington and Tokyo, and it is likely to expand.

Washington is going all out to increase missile production.

The U.S. Army's "Long-Range Hypersonic (Hypersonic) Weapon" (LRHW) ballistic missile with a range of more than 2,700 kilometers may be deployed for the first time in 2023, and the Navy's LRHW missile will follow, stationed on cruisers and Nuclear-powered submarines, the ultimate counter to the PLA's long-standing advantage in long-range theater missiles.

The Flying Tigers of World War II should be replicated in Taiwan

This is just a part of the more than 1,000 theater missiles that the United States will purchase in 2023. There is also the "Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile" (JASSM) with a range of 950 kilometers to 1,500 kilometers for the U.S. Air Force. The derivative anti-ship version, the final annual output will reach 1,100 pieces.

In addition, the U.S. military has signed multi-year production contracts with contractors for more than 100,000 guided multiple launch rocket system (GMLRS) missiles and 28,000 Javelin anti-tank missiles. Both types of missiles have already produced lethal effects on the Ukrainian battlefield, which means Taiwan has the option of increasing its stockpiles.

The U.S. House of Representatives passed the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2023 (NDAA) on December 8 last year, and the Senate passed it on December 15. The Biden administration should implement the bill as soon as possible A bipartisan consensus.

These measures include: authorizing the commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command to invite Taiwan to join joint military exercises that may involve other partners, including Japan; inviting Taiwan to participate in the 2024 Rim of the Pacific Multinational Joint Exercise (RIMPAC); strengthening U.S. forces against Taiwan direct training; give Taiwan the status to receive additional U.S. weapons and military assistance; allocate $100 million a year for ten years to build a Regional Contingency Stockpile for Taiwan to stockpile ammunition and ordnance.

However, China's recent revelations of recruiting "mercenaries" from Australia, Britain, France and South Africa, and even a former US pilot to help improve the skills of PLA pilots against Taiwanese, US and Japanese forces should evoke a second revival in Washington The spirit of the "Flying Tigers" during World War II allowed American companies to provide Taiwan with military training and even combat service.

The U.S. Air Force and Navy have hired some private air combat training companies that have decommissioned and unarmed jet fighters and can legally conduct training operations in Taiwan.

Why not consider "loaning" a small number of Lockheed Martin F-35B fifth-generation fighter jets from these companies to help provide Taiwan with long-range reconnaissance and data link capabilities, while also allowing American and Japanese F-35 pilots to further develop Familiar with the combat missions in the Taiwan theater?

But more importantly, U.S. companies that can run the business of training unmanned combat systems or their practical application should also be allowed to sign contracts with Taiwan.

This would allow Taiwan to more rapidly expand the diversity of unmanned combat systems that can detect, engage, and contain invading PLA units.

Encourage Tokyo to open up arms sales to Taiwan

In mid-December, the government of Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced a new policy of military expansion that would improve its ability to deter Chinese attacks and help deter a war against Taiwan.

Japan will increase its defense spending to two percent of annual gross domestic product (GDP) from a long-standing one percent, and acquire long-range and hypersonic missiles capable of striking targets in China for the first time.

Prior to this, Japan also announced its decision to significantly increase the deployment of personnel and armaments on the southern islands of the Ryukyu Islands.

In addition, Tokyo should also be encouraged to join the ranks of training Taiwan's forces and consider selling military technology to Taiwan, especially submarine, anti-submarine and mine warfare technology.

However, the most important military mobilization to deter China from invading Taiwan still has to be decided by the Biden administration, that is, to change its unwillingness to establish and deploy a powerful US tactical theater nuclear strike capability in Asia.

Rebuild Tactical Nuclear Weapons to Deter Fools

In 1958, U.S. President Dwight Eisenhower approved the deployment of tactical nuclear artillery shells and nuclear-capable Matador cruise missiles to Taiwan to fulfill the obligations of the now-defunct U.S.-China Mutual Defense Treaty. obligation.

These nuclear weapons were successful in deterring a Chinese invasion, so the U.S. would need to rebuild artillery systems capable of delivering low-yield tactical nuclear warheads, cruise missiles, short-range ballistic missiles, and aerial bombs to deter the current threat of a possible PLA invasion of Taiwan.

When Xi Jinping learns that he plans to launch a naval invasion of Taiwan with thousands of large ferries and barges, carrying 100,000 to 300,000 troops, only to be wiped out by dozens of low-yield tactical nuclear weapons, he will know what he is The invasion would have ended in failure, and would most likely delay the venture for a long time.

China's assistance to North Korea and Pakistan in the development of nuclear missiles means that the CCP is indifferent to US nuclear restraint.

The revival of nuclear weapons capabilities in the U.S. theater is a great opportunity at our disposal to avoid the loss of American sailors and soldiers, and to change the tragic fate of millions of Taiwanese who may be displaced or imprisoned in the CCP’s concentration camps.

(The author Fei Xueli is a senior researcher at the American think tank "International Evaluation and Strategy Center". Translated by Chen Hongda of the International News Center)

◎Richard D. Fisher, Jr.