Russian President Vladimir Putin

Vladimir Putin - Russian politician.

Born on October 7, 1952 in Leningrad, now St. Petersburg, Prez was probably under the influence of medication when he made the decision to go to war in Ukraine.

In an interview with Berlingske, the head of the Russia department at FE, Denmark's military intelligence service, provides some rare insight into what we currently know about Putin - and what could ultimately cause his fall from power, Nova TV reports.

All about the topic:

Russian invasion of Ukraine 8806

Joachim cannot tell everything he knows.

And what he can say, he is not necessarily completely sure of it.

But in his estimation, one of the factors that caused Europe's biggest war since World War II was probably the medication that Russian President Vladimir Putin

Vladimir Putin - Russian politician.

Born on October 7, 1952 in Leningrad, now St. Petersburg. Pres.

"The obsession with grandeur is one of the known side effects of the type of hormone treatment he was on," Joachim states.

"It's not something I can say for sure, but I think it influenced his decision to start the war in Ukraine."

Ukrainian intelligence chief: Putin will die soon

The person making this stunning claim is no accident.

Joachim leads the Russia analysis team at FE, the Danish military intelligence service.

For security reasons, he is not allowed to show pictures of himself or use his last name.

This is the man who runs Danish intelligence on President Putin, the Russian military and Russian society.

And he is the one who helps Danish executives and politicians understand as best as possible the threat Putin poses to Denmark and his chances of success in Ukraine.

Joachim agreed to lift the curtain on at least some of this knowledge to Berlingske's readers.

He also makes an educated guess as to why Putin sometimes appears to be uncomfortable when he is seated and has a firm grip on the edge of the table with his hand.

But we'll get to that in a bit.

Putin was close to victory

The FE asked to meet Berlingske in the parking lot in the Kastellet area of ​​the army citadel in Copenhagen, without giving a specific address.

Once inside, you should leave your phone, laptop and smartwatch in a secure cabinet so unwanted ears can't listen.

But up in the corridors, the institution's Christmas decorations and furniture make the place look more like a council office than a set from a James Bond film.

Joachim welcomes us into an anonymous-looking meeting room.

He presents his information with a blank face.

Just the content of what he has to say indicates that these are carefully considered secrets that are being revealed to a wide audience for the first time.

FE Intelligence initially thought the Russians would win the war in two weeks.

"And they were close," he says.

The FE were fully aware of the main problems in the Russian military - corruption, mismanagement and slow logistics.

But the Russians themselves were fully aware of this and thus managed to make the necessary adjustments.

But that's not why the invasion failed.

Today it is clear that the key unknown factor is the bad decisions made by Putin.

"We put much of the blame for this on Putin's shoulders," says Joachim.

It was not bad intelligence but Putin's ideological beliefs that led Russian soldiers to believe they would be greeted with flowers.

It was because of Putin that everything was planned by a small circle of people and shared down the chain only at the last minute.

Because of this, the Russian forces simply did not know what to do.

Also because of Putin's decision to call the invasion a "special military operation" rather than a war, the Russian army suddenly lacked 30,000 infantry for the invasion of Ukraine.

In practice, this meant that the Russian forces could not use their conscripts, but had to deploy trained specialists, such as infantrymen.

Yet they actually did a worse job, says Joachim: "That's also why you see these units speeding through cities, hoping no one shoots at them."

Joachim still believes that the Russians were close to success.

Russian paratroopers had actually taken over Hostomel airfield on the outskirts of Kyiv and were waiting for reinforcements.

But planes carrying new troops simply couldn't get there because the Russians couldn't deal with Ukrainian air defenses.

"These are quite small factors that ultimately decide the outcome," says Joachim.

Interference in decisions

But the bad decisions don't end there.

Putin still appears to be intervening in the war too low in the chain of command.

Shortly before Christmas, he participated in a meeting with the full composition of the command of the war in Ukraine.

"It's the worst idea in the world," explains Joachim.

“He has a general to lead this war.

So he doesn't have to sit there and listen to the opinions of all these other generals."

The army is now so depleted that it will take years to rebuild.

Even then, the soldiers will be worse equipped than before and will be forced to use old armored vehicles.

For this reason, Joachim does not believe there will be a major new Russian offensive against Kyiv in February, as Ukraine has warned.

In such a short time, it is simply not possible to train the mobilized Russian troops for such an offensive.

"We absolutely expect these smaller attacks to happen, like the one in Bakhmut.

But an offensive like the one we saw last February, it's going to take them a few years to build up those kinds of pieces again."

At the same time, Ukraine has good chances to regain most of the occupied territories.

How exactly - depends partly on how many weapons will be provided by the West to help the Ukrainians, and partly on how badly the winter will drain Russian morale.

"Ukrainians are well equipped to survive the winter.

The Russians are not.

Especially not the mobilized troops.

So what will this make them do?

Abandon their positions when it gets very cold?'

Public humiliation

The biggest unknown, however, is what will happen when the Ukrainians begin to strike at Russia's core strategic interests, prompting Putin to feel compelled to respond with nuclear weapons.

"Putin does not have a well-defined red line, which makes it impossible to accurately predict if and when he will push that button," says Joachim.

To give an example, he refers to the events leading up to Putin's decision in September to annex four Ukrainian regions and launch a partial mobilization.

“This happened after Russia was forced into a disastrous retreat from Kharkiv.

Around the same time, Putin was publicly rebuked by China, Turkey and India at a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, where they told him they were "concerned" and said now was not the time for war.

“It's not really about what happens on the battlefield, although of course things go very badly.

It's the same as being personally humiliated and looking weak, and Putin can't stand looking weak.

So there is this combination of factors that can be dangerous," says the head of FE's Russia analysis department.

“On the other hand, there is no guarantee that we will make the world a safer place by stopping the counteroffensive in time before it reaches the Crimean peninsula and by seeking a negotiated settlement, as some voices in the West suggest.

If we do something that Putin may see as our weakness, he may think he can go further than he is actually capable of doing.

And then things can get ugly again," says Joachim.

One step down the stairs

Despite Putin's many bad decisions, Danish military intelligence sees no immediate risk of him being removed from power.

In its 2021 annual report, the FE said that Putin is "very likely" to still be Russia's leader after the next presidential election in 2024. However, the Danish intelligence service changed that prediction in its 2022 report to -the unlikely certainty that Putin will "probably" stay in power for the next five years.

"We don't see anyone taking it down.

But if we saw it, the FSB (Federal Security Service of Russia) would also see it and the problem would probably be solved very quickly," says Joachim.

No one among the Russian elites is strong enough, as their power derives from Putin.

And with the way things currently stand with the Russian population, FE also sees no likelihood of a popular uprising.

"But our biggest uncertainty concerns his health or someone removing him because of his deteriorating health," says Joachim.

Putin's health

After the invasion, speculation about Putin's health grew in some Western media.

Thousands of people on social media commented hopefully as Putin was seen at various times limping across Red Square, clutching his desk or with some apparent weakness in his right arm.

However, FE does not believe that Putin is suffering from a terminal illness, but rather has serious chronic pain after several falls and accidents.

Joachim does not want to say what exactly happened, nor reveal the source of his information.

But it doesn't just come from studying social media videos.

Various media previously reported that Putin was suffering from the effects of a fall from a horse at the turn of the century.

He also appears to have picked up injuries from judo and ice hockey over the past few years.

"That's the curious thing.

It's a chronic pain that he's been suffering from for a long time," says Joachim.

"That's why he tends to sit and hold on to things.

It's for pain relief.''

At the same time, FE believes that Putin previously had a form of cancer and that he was undergoing treatment for it when he started the war, which may have influenced his decision.

"He also had a moon-shaped face at the beginning of the year, which is another known side effect of the same type of hormone treatment," says Joachim.

In the spring, Russian investigative media outlet Projekt published an extensive story about the doctors who have cared for Putin over the years.

Judging by the doctors who visited him most often, Projekt concluded that Putin may have had thyroid cancer.

"That's definitely a good guess," Joachim answers the question.

However, FE does not expect Putin to die from this disease.

But over time, it could lead Russia's elites to decide they need a stronger man at the helm.

Russian invasion of Ukraine

Vladimir Putin