Russia under Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) and Chinese President Xi Jinping (left) maximizing power are listed by Eurasia Group as the top two risks to the world this year.
The picture shows Xi Jinping attending the "Eastern Economic Forum" in Vladivostok, the capital of Russia's Primorsky Krai, in September 2018, and meeting with Putin.
(Reuters file photo)
Eurasia Group predicts the top ten risks in 2023, naming Xi Jinping may make a "big mistake"
[Compile Zhou Hongwen/Comprehensive Report] The world's largest political risk consulting company "Eurasia Group" (Eurasia Group) released the global "2023 World Top Ten Risk Forecast" assessment report on the 3rd, pointing to the invasion of Ukraine in February last year China's "Rogue Russia" (Rogue Russia) is the number one risk; Chinese President Xi Jinping's "power maximization" is not far behind, and given his lack of checks and balances and tolerance for dissent to challenge views, the "Eurasia Group" predicts that he may "cast a A blunder that no one can match."
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"A cornered Russia would transform from a global player into the world's most dangerous rogue state, with serious and pervasive consequences for Europe, the United States and beyond," the report said. Dangerous." The risk of mutual annihilation could escalate to the highest level since the 1962 Cuban missile crisis.
The report also said that China's close relationship with Russia, especially China's inaction on Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will continue to negatively affect China's relationship with other major countries in the world and threaten global peace and stability.
The Eurasia Group did not list the Taiwan situation as one of its top 10 risks this year, as the report argued that after seeing Russia isolated by the West over its invasion of Ukraine, China would hold off on possible military conflict until the balance of power was in its favor. Decisively favorable, or a president in the United States who is clearly unwilling to defend Taiwan, "none of this is likely to happen in 2023".
Xi's power "sets China back a few steps this year"
Ian Bremmer, president of the "Eurasia Group" said bluntly at the report conference on the 3rd that Mao Zedong, who consolidated power after the establishment of the CCP, had caused mass famine, economic collapse and death due to "wrong policy agenda" ; Xi Jinping, heading into his third term, is the most centralized leader since Mao Zedong, and while China is unlikely to experience another large-scale political movement such as the Great Leap Forward or the Cultural Revolution, "Xi's consolidation of power will set China back at least a few steps this year ".
The report pointed out that at the end of last year, China began to loosen the "zero clearing" policy that has been adhered to since the outbreak of the Wuhan pneumonia epidemic, but saw a surge in infection cases, which is a "sign of Xi Jinping taking wrong measures."
On the economic level, China's economy is in a fragile state, with growth in the key real estate sector stalling, and a concomitant debt default that could spread widely to the financial sector; but tightening economic controls now will generate "arbitrary decisions and policy volatility," although "in Effective economic management from the Chinese government is needed against a backdrop of weak global growth and deepening domestic challenges. But China's leadership is delivering opacity and unpredictability."
Other issues included in the top ten risks include weapons of mass destruction, global inflation, Iran, energy tensions, stagnant global development, increased political division in the United States, the shaping of public policy by China's international version of TikTok, and Global water stress.