amid the COVID-19 crisis

that continues to occur continuously

The political conflict between the West and the East

Russo-Ukrainian War

Crisis of rapidly rising energy and commodity prices

Fear of food shortages is increasing worldwide.

inflation crisis

Soaring cost of living

An overview of the global economy that has turned upside down from a period of recovery to a recession.

and increased volatility in global financial markets.

Many people are probably asking the question.

What is happening to “our world”? What will the chaos and rapid changes in the global economy that have occurred in the past year bring us in the coming year?

Reminds me of the title of the book written by "Alan Greenspan", former Federal Reserve Governor (Fed) The Age of Turbulence: Adventures in a New World...which although this book has been out for a long time.

But the era of chaos is not yet over.

And what will the real chaos we are facing in this new world be?

"Economic Team" invites you to see the world economy in 2023 with 3 leading gurus in the Thai economy circle.

Danucha Pichayanan,


Secretary-General of the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDB).

Starting from the secretary of Phat

Looking at the direction of the global economy in 2023 that “is likely to continue to decelerate from 2022 in line with the slowdown of the main economy”

Especially the United States, Eurozone, United Kingdom.

and Australia

This is in line with the central bank's monetary policy to become more stringent. Meanwhile, the eurozone economy is likely to be affected by the prolonged energy crisis from sanctions and reductions in energy imports from Russia.

while emerging economies

ASEAN countries are likely to slow down in line with the economic slowdown and global trade volume.

In addition, some countries are at risk from economic instability.

especially in countries with high foreign debt ratios.

As for the Chinese economy, it tends to grow at a slower pace.

according to the trend of relaxing lockdown measures

and measures to restrict travel amid risks and constraints from problems in the real estate sector.

“NESDB sees the trend in the base case.

The global economy and trade volume in 2023 are expected to expand by 2.6% and 2%, slowing from 3.1% and 4% in 2022, respectively.”

The base case is based on the assumption that 1. Raising interest rates by the central banks of each country does not lead to a severe and long-lasting recession.

Does not cause volatility in the global financial market to cause a crisis

Especially in emerging markets and low-income countries where economic stability is a problem.

2. Geopolitical conflicts

Especially between the US and China, as well as the protracted conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

does not extend to the use of military force in other areas

Or intensify until it affects the economy widely.

Political polarization in the world has not led to severe trade protection measures that will cause a decline in global trade volume.

3. Energy and commodity markets improved and there was no reduction in energy imports.

Especially natural gas so suddenly that it may result in a food energy shortage crisis.

And lead to an increase in energy and commodity prices and 4. The spread of COVID-19

The new strain did not lead to the implementation of epidemic control measures and tightening restrictions on international travel again, thus hurting the economy.

The US economy is expected to expand by 0.7% in 2023, slowing down from 1.7% in 2022 as a result of the US Federal Reserve's acceleration in interest rates, while the eurozone economy

Growth is expected to be 0.3%, slowing from 2.6% in 2022, as the protracted conflict between Russia and Ukraine drives up energy costs.

Countries with high energy imports, namely Germany, Austria, Hungary and the Czech Republic, are more likely to experience recession.

Japanese economy

It is expected to grow by 2%, compared to 1.4% in 2022, supported by an expansion in domestic spending that is likely to accelerate due to COVID-19.

unwinding

Chinese economy

It is expected to grow by 4.2%, an improvement from 3% in 2022 due to the economic recovery from the relaxation of epidemic control measures.

The economy of emerging countries

It tends to grow at a slower pace due to a slowdown in exports and manufacturing production.

South Korea is expected to grow 2.1% in 2023, slowing from 2.9% in 2022. Singapore and Taiwan are expected to grow 2.1% and 2.5%, decelerating from 4.1% and 3.1% in 2022, while ASEAN countries have Growth is likely to be driven by domestic spending and the recovery of the tourism sector. It is expected that in 2023, the economies of Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam will expand by 4.5%, 4.2%, 4.5% and 5.2%, respectively.

Dr. Arm Tangnirandon


, Lecturer of the Faculty of Law and Director of Chinese Studies Center

Institute of Asian Studies

Chulalongkorn University

“In 2013, I think the world economy will continue to face volatility and challenges from geopolitical factors.

It can be said that we have entered an era in which geopolitics

or world politics

That has a direct impact on the economy, ”said Dr. Arm, with 3 factors to watch, both old wounds and new wounds. The old wound is the Ukrainian war, which tends to be a truce and reduce the heat in the winter.

But will return to heat again after the winter in early '66 and will continue to protract and the second story is the trade war between China and the United States.

That escalated into a technology war, especially in the semiconductor industry.

Inevitably affects the change of the Supply Chain (production chain) of the world in a big way.

As for the new wound and the third story is the Taiwan conflict, in the year 66 the United States will issue a new law on Taiwan.

And it will be a year that paves the way for big elections in Taiwan and the United States next year, making the situation of conflict between China, the United States and Taiwan heat up and always exist.

but I estimate that it will not escalate into war

“Among the three big economies, the US will most likely face a recession, and Europe, due to the protracted Ukraine war, will be difficult to recover.

But China has a high chance of recovering in 2023 from the second quarter onwards because the opening of the city returns to normal life after COVID.

for the abolition of China's Zero Covid policy in March

Last Dec.

It's faster than everyone thinks.

In the past, the Zero Covid policy has been a pressure on the Chinese economy throughout the year '65 and also affects the regional economy, such as the amount of exports to China.

Including the amount of Chinese tourists who travel out.

“I think China will be able to fully open the country from January 2023 when there will be a huge number of Chinese tourists leaving the country.

After closing the city for 3 years, which will have a clear positive effect.

to the Thai economy

and believes that the number of foreign tourists entering Thailand in 2023 will be higher than previously assessed.

However, in the first quarter of 2023, which is the winter season and during the Chinese New Year festival, the outbreak situation in China is likely to remain severe.

And will also affect the Chinese economy.

but after a month

March, when entering the second quarter and during the change of Prime Minister

and the new government of China

should make China return to fully focus on economic recovery

This can be seen in the new Chinese slogan that the new economic team calls for.

“State enterprises dare to do it.

The private sector dares to take risks.

foreigners dare to invest,” which reflects that

China is trying to rebuild the economic atmosphere and rebound after reopening the city.

The challenge remains the real estate sector.

that also drags the economy

and trade war problems

Including the technology war with the United States that will only intensify from now on.

And another thing to keep an eye on is the grand opening of the Belt & Road Cooperation Conference in Beijing in 2013.

And will be used as a platform for China's new geopolitical game.

by linking with the Middle East

More from Central Asia

and Southeast Asia earlier

And it's China that still opens up the country.

and promote trade and external investment

It just changed from being linked to Europe and the Western world.

turn to more developing countries

Dr. Kobsak Pootrakool


Executive Vice President

Bangkok Bank

and Chairman of the Federation of Thai Capital Market Business Council

Ended with Dr. Kobsak, who closely monitored the global economic situation. Perfect Storm has caused unprecedented volatility in global financial markets,


to the detriment of everyone.”

First: It would be extremely difficult for many areas of the global economy to avoid a recession.

According to preliminary estimates of global organizations such as the International Monetary Fund

World growth is expected to be only 2.7%, while Fitch Ratings see it as very low at 1.4%. The most important thing to watch closely in the coming '23 is our manufacturing and export sectors.

that will be the main point of strength

Bumps in major economic areas such as the US, Europe, and Latin America are unlikely to grow or grow negatively next year.

In addition, it will be aggravated by the Chinese economy, which will grow considerably lower than normal.

From the real estate crisis that still needs to be solved

Recently, it was found that the export sector of Thailand has already been affected to some extent.

Our seasonally adjusted export value is down 10% from the middle of the year.

Second : We will face the volatility of global financial markets including stock prices, bonds, gold, commodities.

Cryptocurrencies

and various currencies

will still be agitated up and down to make my heart disappear for a while

This is because the central bank's war against inflation has not finished yet.

The Fed still has to raise interest rates for a while.

And must stay at a high level until the end of '66-early '67 to start reducing interest rates

While inflation in some areas, such as the European Union or the UK, is still above 10% and has not dropped much.

“Markets and investors will have to adapt to these central bank decisions for some time to come.

and fluctuations occur from time to time

Until at some point everything started to fall into place.

Causing some asset prices to begin a new recovery period in the year '66 and we should not miss it.

Third: Another challenge that will become more evident over time is

economic crisis in emerging countries

It happened this year in Sri Lanka, Egypt, Pakistan, Turkey and Ghana, creating a new emerging economies.

which Thailand is included will be closely watched

The more central banks

have to raise interest rates

The more the main country's economy enters a deeper recession.

will greatly affect exports to emerging countries

resulting in a decrease in foreign income

Have debt repayment problems and have few reserves?

leading to another crisis

Add a degree of volatility and color to the year '66.

“All means that next year's economy will not be easy.

We must prepare well.

The business must try to reduce unnecessary costs early.

Talk to the commercial bank first.

In order to have enough liquidity to support the economic recession in many parts of the world that will start in the middle of 2023 and continue to the beginning of 2024 at least.”

But fortunately, Thailand is still able to expand a bit amid the Perfect Storm.

Thailand will benefit from the return of tourism at the right time.

And when China opens the country early next year, there will be Chinese tourists coming to join.

Come to travel in revenge from not being able to come out for more than 3 full years, it will make the Thai economy enough to flow to some extent.

In addition, there is another positive driving force that will help ease the burden, namely, foreign direct investment arising from the geopolitical issues between the United States-Russia, the United States-China, which are still smoldering.

Causing investors around the world to look back

And agreed that ASEAN is the most interesting area in the world.

It's an area where he has to hold a beachhead.

can't miss

As for the question that

“How good will Thailand go?

Will it continue to grow next year?

How good is the "heavy and light installment"?

“If we do well, we will be able to stand up in the midst of a crisis.

And this crisis will be our opportunity if we do not do well.

We would still be affected.

Take time to get up

causing you to miss a good opportunity to open up

As for where to go, it depends on whether businesses and the Thai government are well prepared or not in the next 5-6 months.

Don't be fooled that the problem is far away from people who know how to be afraid.

It's usually the one who survives.

Let's cheer up for everyone.

economic team