Briefly:

  • The war created a second line of isolation for Lukashenka's regime, an "iron curtain".

    The first appeared after the events of 2020.

  • The second challenge, which was also a result of the war, is the narrowing of the sovereignty of Belarus.

  • We observed the rapid transformation of an authoritarian regime into a totalitarian one.

  • In the hands of the dictator, the Belarusian society turned out to be more malleable than it was seen before.

  • At the end of the year, the topic of political prisoners became acutely relevant.

What is already clear today: the war is creating a new "iron curtain", the "Berlin Wall" in Europe.

And the only country, apart from Russia, which directly participates in this wild anti-Ukrainian adventure and thus found itself on the other side of the curtain, turned out to be Belarus.

The war created a second line of isolation for Lukashenka's regime.

The events of 2020 (falsification of election results, mass protests, political repressions) caused the international isolation of official Minsk.

The West did not recognize Lukashenka as the president of Belarus, other countries of the world treated him cautiously, waiting for the end of the internal conflict.

SEE ALSO: The alliance of two dictators for self-survival.

What is hidden behind the idyll in Belarusian-Russian relations

With the beginning of the war, Belarus turned out to be Russia's only ally.

Both countries found themselves in deep isolation.

This is evidenced by the position of other CSTO members and the vote for the relevant resolutions at the UN.

Lukashenka will not get used to international isolation.

For most of his reign, he is in outcast status.

But now the situation is a little different.

A completely different scale of isolation.

Lukashenko himself has repeatedly mentioned the unequal forces involved in this confrontation.

Like, two against 50 states.

"The two of us are co-aggressors, the most harmful and toxic people on this planet," Lukashenko stated during Putin's visit to Minsk.

Badly hidden bitterness and hopelessness shined through the irony.

This second line of isolation of Belarus created a deep civilizational moat.

It's not even about sanctions.

Double isolation forms the psychology of a fortress under siege in supporters of the regime.

With all the corresponding consequences.

SEE ALSO: Lukashenka does not voluntarily amnesty political prisoners, but he can sell or exchange them.

How to save people from prisons now?

The second challenge, which was also a result of the war, is the narrowing of the sovereignty of Belarus, and the direct consequence of this process is the narrowing of Lukashenka's power over Belarus.

What is especially painful for him is that the country is losing its military sovereignty.

Lukashenko is no longer the sovereign of this territory.

After all, the troops of the neighboring country are located here, who obey their sovereign and use the Belarusian territory as they see fit.

Belarus became extremely dependent on Russia in other spheres: economic, financial, energy, logistics, information, etc.

On the one hand, this is salvation for Lukashenka's regime.

That is why, by the way, many analysts' predictions about the economic collapse did not come true.

On the other hand, it is the reduction of Lukashenka's power.

Which is very painful purely psychologically.

We can recall with what moral tension he was forced to visit Abkhazia, how the Belarusian state media tried to mix up this failure in front of Putin.

SEE ALSO: "Everything could have been worse."

The results of 2022 in Belarusian-Russian relations from Vadim Mazheika

So, when a dilemma arose - to share power with the Belarusian people or with the head of a neighboring state, Lukashenka chose the second.

According to the psychology of the medieval monarch.

Sharing power with the plebs is shameful.

But to become dependent on a stronger king, prince or tsar is, according to the concepts of feudal society, not at all shameful.

But now it is necessary to loosen the biracial practical consequences of this dependence.

His entourage may begin to look closely at Moscow, to see Putin as a real master.

It is not by chance that recently Lukashenka started talking so often about the strength and steadfastness of Belarusian independence.

Because he feels a painful place that can be pressed.

Thus, Belarus behind the "iron curtain" and strongly cut sovereignty, with the status of a co-aggressor - this is the result of 2022 in foreign policy.

SEE ALSO: Autumn of the dictator.

How Lukashenka will save his regime from inevitable changes

As for internal trends, here we observed a rapid transformation of an authoritarian regime into a totalitarian one.

Lukashenko this year destroyed many ideas of authoritative researchers about borders, "red lines" in social and political processes.

Belarusian society turned out to be more malleable in the hands of the dictator than it was seen before.

For example, there were many conclusions about the fact that it is impossible to turn Belarus into North Korea, because, they say, it is the center of Europe in the 21st century.

However, the reality turned out to be much more complicated than many imagined.

There is still no North Korea here, however, according to many indicators, Belarus has returned to the USSR of Stalin's time (unlimited power of penal authorities, huge terms of imprisonment on "political" articles).

It is very remarkable that at the end of the year, the topic of political prisoners became very topical.

There are two reasons.

First, political terror has increased sharply in recent months.

According to a study by the authors of the "Belarusian Change Tracker", the number of "political trials" in the fall averaged 145 per month against the average statistical figure of 84 for the previous months of 2022.

If in the summer, on average, 100-120 people were detained per month, then in the autumn - 3.5 times more.

SEE ALSO: Lukashenka's entry into the war may be the beginning of a civil war in Belarus

The logic of the evolution of an authoritarian regime into a totalitarian one, and despair from the atmosphere of the "iron curtain", a fortress under siege, and the revenge of the West for refusing to bargain with political prisoners are at work here.

Secondly, the ideas about the prospects of Lukashenka's regime changed again.

For some time, the opinion dominated in the expert environment that it is impossible to "sit on the heels" for a long time, that in no more than two years the regime will either collapse, or it will have to start liberalization, negotiations with the West and the release of political prisoners.

And there was a popular opinion that harsh sentences for police prisoners are not terrible, there is no need to be afraid of it, they will not serve this term anyway.

However, time is passing, and the regime is only getting stronger.

Some prisoners have already served their prison terms and have been released.

Some of them are detained again.

That is why they began to sound strong rebuke to Tikhonovskaya's team: why, they say, you don't release them.

In general, 2022 has become another year of Belarusian drama.

And how many more are ahead?

The opinions expressed in the blogs represent the views of the authors themselves and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position.

  • Valer Karbalevich

    He was born in 1955.

    Graduated from the history faculty of BSU, candidate of historical sciences, associate professor.

    Radio Svaboda political commentator.



    karbalevich@gmail.com

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