The next year, 2023, will be the year of a catastrophic drop in the birth rate in Ukraine.

The director of the Institute of Demography and Social Research named after

M.V.

Ella Libanova's birds, reports "Ukrinform".

In her opinion, population losses due to the war and related migration processes are catastrophic.

The demographer believes that by 2030, the population of Ukraine may decrease to 35 million.

"My dream is that by 2030 we will be 35 million. Unfortunately, that may not happen. Because the war continues, we are losing people due to excess mortality. It is not only the dead, but also those who die due to stress, overload, low-quality food, insufficient medical care," she explained.

The expert believes that 2023 will be the year of a catastrophic fall in the birth rate.

"Let's say, in order to have a simple restoration of generations, it is necessary for one woman to give birth to 2.13 - 2.15 children during her lifetime (on average). In 2021, we had an indicator of 1.1. In 2022, even less, but the reduction will not yet be catastrophic at the expense of children born in the first half of the year. God forbid that in 2023 we stop at the rate of 0.8," says Libanova.

She also draws attention to another problem - emigration.

The demographer warns that the longer Ukrainians stay abroad, the better they adapt, and therefore they will try to stay there forever.

"In addition to the fact that the hot phase of the war will last longer, our infrastructure will be more destroyed - both industrial and social, especially housing. If people have destroyed homes and if they do not have work, they will have nowhere and nothing to return to." Libanova concluded.

Earlier, Ella Libanova denied the opinion of some experts that there will be a post-war baby boom in Ukraine.

She also warned that in the worst case scenario, up to 5 million more citizens may leave Ukraine.

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