Nicaragua's dictatorial president, Daniel Ortega.

(European News Agency file photo)

[Reporter Yang Chengyu/Taipei Report] The Central American country Nicaragua broke off diplomatic relations with my country on December 10 last year, and immediately turned to China, intending to seek more economic assistance and market opportunities. Laureano, the son of dictatorial president Daniel Ortega ( Laureano Ortega shuttled between Nigeria and China for economic and trade exchanges.

However, the Spanish-language media infobae reported that after the one-year "honeymoon period" of the resumption of diplomatic relations between Nigeria and China, Nigeria's exports to China are still far behind those to Taiwan.

Scholars pointed out that Ortega's decision to switch to China is hardly a "failure", but it is obviously far from the original expected goal.

The report pointed out that after the resumption of diplomatic relations between Nigeria and China, they first signed the "Belt and Road" cooperation memorandum in January this year, signed the "Early Harvest Agreement" before the start of bilateral free trade negotiations in July, and donated 3 million doses of Wuhan pneumonia to Nigeria within one year (COVID-19) vaccine.

However, judging from the bilateral economic and trade data, China's attitude towards Nicaragua is obviously different from Ortega's original expectations.

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Data show that from January to September this year, Nigeria’s exports to China were only US$11 million, an increase of only about US$2 million compared with the same period last year; in comparison, Nigeria’s exports to Taiwan during the same period this year were about US$85 million , but affected by the severance of diplomatic relations and the cessation of the implementation of bilateral free trade agreements, compared with the same period last year, it decreased by nearly 14 million US dollars.

After going back and forth, it can be said that the Nigerian country's defection to China is "the gain outweighs the loss" and "the harm outweighs the benefit".

During the same period, China exported nearly 800 million US dollars to Nigeria. The economic and trade relationship between Nigeria and China is obviously only beneficial to China, earning a huge trade surplus.

According to the analysis of Enrique Sáenz, a Nigerian economist, although Nicaragua signed the so-called "early harvest agreement" with China, the export volume is obviously not much different from the average value of the past eight years.

Although the size of the Chinese economy is very large, compared to the "partnership" with Taiwan, China is obviously relatively minor.

And despite Ortega's vows, he believes that China will not have any major investment in Nigeria, let alone the development of the "Nicaragua Canal".

As for the role of Ortega's son Laureano in the relationship between Nigeria and China, Saenz believes that Ortega's approach is to "accept" the economic and trade ties between Nigeria and China for his own interest groups and individuals Serve the interests of the country, not the country; and the economic scale of Nigeria is too small, and the funds of interest groups must be invested in overseas targets to be more profitable.

Therefore, he believes that the "personalization" of Nigeria-China economic and trade relations by Ortega is only helping the power group to "compete economically".

Arturo McFields, the former Nicaraguan ambassador to the Organization of American States (OAS), wrote to the media that Ortega's dictatorship had "completely failed."

One year after the severance of diplomatic relations with Taiwan, exports to China are far less than to Taiwan, and exports to the United States still account for half of the country's total exports.

In addition, even if Ortega showed goodwill to China, Chinese President Xi Jinping has not had a video conference with Ortega in this year, nor has he sent an official invitation letter.

McPheez pointed out that compared to Costa Rica, El Salvador, and Panama who turned their backs on Taiwan with China's benefits, Ortega threw himself into China's arms; he thought that breaking diplomatic relations with Taiwan could follow the "precedent" of other countries, At least China will "reward" several million dollars, but I didn't expect it to be miscalculated.

China also has a "large and small eye" on Nicaragua's vaccine donations. El Salvador, which has a similar population and more than 6 million people, received 6.4 million doses of vaccines, while Nigeria received less than half of them, and the vaccines were even delayed; Spain, on the contrary China, the European Union, and the United States took the lead in lending a helping hand.

McPheez bluntly said that Ortega is just a pawn that China can manipulate.

Regarding the reason why China "snubbed" Ortega, McPheez speculated that although China resumed diplomatic relations with Nicaragua, it was obviously retaliating for the "betrayal" of the previous 14 years, so there were no major donation projects or any plans to promote it. The Nigerian ambassador also delayed for a long time, and Xi Jinping has not yet seen Ortega.

McPheez reminded that China is an "empire". Although the empire will forgive, it will never forget.

The Ministry of Economic Affairs of our country pointed out that from January to November this year, the bilateral trade volume between Taiwan and Indonesia was 123.74 million US dollars, a decrease of 15.3% compared with the same period. The US dollar (minus 7.6%) has limited impact on China's overall trade.

In addition, my country has invested about US$145.02 million in Nicaragua, mainly for tourist hotels and textile and garment industries.

Nicaragua invested only $30,000 in me.

The operations of investors from both parties will not be affected by the suspension of the implementation of the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between Taiwan and Nicaragua.