About how the Belarusian government, society and the world's attitude towards Belarus are changing, Svaboda spoke with former employee of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, analyst of the European Council of International Relations

Pavlo Sliunkin.

The expert singled out several points.

The main changes

  • Belarus became an accomplice in a military conflict for the first time

  • A negative perception of Belarusians in the world appeared

  • Course for loss of independence

  • Belarus is becoming a toxic gray zone

  • Repression has become a new social norm

  • Banning criticism of Lukashenka and creating a cult of personality

  • Many Belarusians understood what Russia is

"The main crime of Lukashenka"

"For the first time in its recent history, Belarus has become a participant in a military conflict, and an accomplice in aggression," Slyunkin says.

He emphasizes that the struggle of the Belarusian people for democracy and against totalitarianism was not only about fair elections, but also about ensuring that Belarusians did not kill in the war and were not killed there.

"The lack of democracy led to the fact that we all became hostages of the actions of the totalitarian regime, which, in fact, commits crimes when it helps Russia seize Ukrainian territories.

In my opinion, this is the main crime during the entire time of Lukashenka's rule.

He created a lot of things, but this is the most important thing."

Paval Slyunkin

The expert believes that the broken relationship with the Ukrainians is a process that will take years.

"Everything will not be forgotten just like that.

Belarusians can rightly say that no one elected this government, people rose against it, fought against the dictatorship.

But Belarus is helping to seize another country."

"The perception of Belarusians in the world has changed a lot"

Pavel Slyunkin believes that if until February 24, 2022, Belarusians and the regime were perceived separately in the world, now the situation has changed.

"When Lukashenka's regime began to help Russia in its military aggression, all Belarusians, regardless of their political views, became hostages of this situation.

I'm not sure that Kalinovsky's regiment, "Rail Partisans", "Belarusian Goyun", BYSOL overlap this attitude".

"Lukashenko is depriving himself of power, and us of independence"

Svoboda's interlocutor says that for several years, until 2020, Lukashenka managed to maneuver and evade the implementation of integration agreements, not to agree to a Russian military base in Belarus.

"Now we have a situation where Russian troops, not controlled by Lukashenko, are on the territory of Belarus.

If even Lukashenko wants them to leave, I doubt very much that anyone will ask him and listen to him."

Slyunkin calls this process "the continuation of the loss of independence."

"Lukashenka remains the full head of the country, but his military power has shrunk very much."

Some things he no longer controls.

If Russia wants to make another attempt at aggression from the territory of Belarus, Lukashenka will not be able to do anything, even if he is against it."

"Lukashenka put himself on the same level as the leadership of Abkhazia"

The expert says that we are witnessing the transformation of Belarus into a toxic gray zone, where no one understands who actually controls the situation in this territory

"Belarus under the leadership of Lukashenka breaks off relations with civilized countries, but intensifies relations with unrecognized and occupied territories.

I don't want to say it, but like comes close to like.

Belarus is not yet at their level, but the trend is obvious."

As an example, Pavel Slyunkin cites the September meeting between Alexander Lukashenko and the president of unrecognized Abkhazia, Aslan Bzhaniya.

Moreover, it was Lukashenka who came to Abkhazia with a visit.

"Lukashenko now puts himself on the same level as Bzhaniya.

It was not a private meeting between Mr. Lukashenka and Mr. Bzhaniya, they discussed bilateral relations between Belarus and Abkhazia.

Pushylin arrives in Belarus, with whom Lukashenka officials meet.

That says a lot.

This is our current level.

Earlier, Lukashenko met in Minsk with Kurtz and Pompeo, and now he is sitting at the same table with Bzhaniya."

"Repression has become a form of existence of the regime"

Pavel Slyunkin suggests that if previously the "red lines" beyond which it was impossible to cross were understood by all political actors in Belarus, now the rules of the game have simply disappeared.

"The regime has become unpredictable and brutal.

Repression became a form of existence for the regime.

Repressions are carried out not because red lines have been crossed, but simply because they are.

You can be condemned for a comment, for a like, for raising prices, or because a person on the street looked the wrong way and you need to check his telegram subscriptions.

Repression has become a social norm."

The interlocutor emphasizes that during the meeting with Putin, Lukashenka said that political and social reform is taking place in Belarus.

"He sees repression as a strategic approach, not something tactical and temporary," says the ex-diplomat.

"They make a genius out of Lukashenka"

In fact, there are no political parties left in Belarus, says Paval Sliunkin.

But, moreover, any criticism of the actions of the authorities was banned in the country.

"It's not even about politics, that oppositionists can't get into the parliament.

No.

It is about the fact that criticism of the government should not exist at all.

Criticism has de facto become illegal."

Another important innovation is the creation of the personality cult of Lukashenka, who is praised everywhere by officials and the media.

"The cult of personality has always been somewhere nearby, but not to the end.

Now everyone is saying how great and wise Lukashenka is.

Perhaps this is a reaction to 2020, when they realized that Lukashenka lost and became unpopular with the people.

Now Lukashenka is being molded into a real genius without whom Belarus would not exist.

In the official environment, it is no longer the norm not to admire Lukashenka."

"Nothing has changed in 150 years"

Pavel Slyunkin also calls the fact that many Belarusians have opened their eyes to what Russia is an important change.

"All the pages of our history - the struggle for independence, the divisions of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, the uprisings of Kosciuszko and Kalinowski, BNR, Pazniak, Kurapaty - are not the past.

Now we can see all this online, what our ancestors went through."

Paval tells how during a recent visit to Vilnius he walked through Lukiska Square together with Lithuanian diplomats.

"I say that 150 years ago Belarusians fought for independence from Russia.

Belarus was occupied, this territory had its own governor, they raised an uprising, which was suppressed, and the leader was hanged.

It was on the same day that the House of Representatives adopted the law on the death penalty for treason.

150 years have passed, but everything is the same.

There is still a struggle for independence from Russia, there is a Gauleiter who is going to punish people who allegedly betrayed him.

And on our side are still all the same peoples as before - Poles and Lithuanians," Slyunkin sums up.

Other 2022 results from Svoboda:

People of resistance - "People of Freedom - 2022"

The Belarusian word of 2022 is war

"Political prison", "Visible", "Her expertise".

We talk about the most important women's projects of 2022

Medicine in ruins: War, repression, failure to provide care behind bars, emigration, legalization

Economic results of the year: Belarus has not seen such a drop in GDP since the 1990s

Kazakevich: in 2022, the fate of Belarus will become less dependent on events inside Belarus

"Belarusian diplomacy has become an appendage of war."

Results of the year with Pavel Sliunkin