The well-known American journal "Foreign Affairs" published an article warning that China is in a dangerous decline. Xi Jinping's totalitarian system faces many internal and external challenges, and may resort to nationalism to gain legitimacy.


[Compiled by Yang Fuyi/Taipei Report] The well-known American journal "Foreign Affairs" (Foreign Affairs) published an article on the 20th, pointing out that China is not a thriving and rising behemoth, but is teetering on the edge of a cliff, facing the economic growth that is not enough to support the people's comfortable life , causing public anger to continue to boil, and dissent within the ruling class may arise; externally, China has adopted a confrontational stance everywhere, from land grabbing in the South China Sea, threatening Taiwan, to controlling foreign infrastructure under the "Belt and Road Initiative"; China's problems are bound to continue to surge in the next few years, Chinese President Xi Jinping may resort to military provocation.

The article, titled "China's Dangerous Decline," was written by Jonathan Tepperman, former editor-in-chief of Foreign Policy, and noted Xi's growing urgency to improve his integrity, especially after meeting Unable to rely on economic growth to build legitimacy as previous Chinese leaders have done after an embarrassing reversal of the publically failed Covid-zero policy, he may turn to nationalism instead.

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If so, the article warns, China will look and act more and more like supersized North Korea: a financially distressed authoritarian regime that provokes and threatens its enemies to obtain concessions, boost its self-esteem, and distract the populace; like the Russian president Putin's disastrous war against Ukraine, the greatest danger lies in Xi Jinping's military moves against Taiwan.

The article calls on Washington to adjust how it responds to China's possible military provocations, including abandoning its "strategic ambiguity" policy towards Taiwan, clearly stating the red line, and clearly strengthening its own ability to contain violent attacks on China; it also reiterates that Washington opposes any move toward Taiwan independence because if Beijing becomes more nationalist, it should avoid giving Xi the bullet to become more assertive.

The article said that in order to further change Xi Jinping's calculations, Washington should also increase the US military assets in the Western Pacific and other areas where confrontation may occur, and try to make Taiwan a more difficult target for attack.