A pharmacy in Hangzhou, China, was flooded with people to buy medicines.

(Reuters)

[Central News] China's abrupt rollback of zero-zero policy raises concerns that, with a vulnerable, undervaccinated population and deficient innate immunity, the virus could spread widely, overwhelm the healthcare system and kill 2 million people, research groups report. or more people died.

Analysis by model-building groups predicts that as many as 2.1 million people could die as China lifts its lockdown and reopens, Reuters reported.

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As of the 19th, the number of deaths from COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) officially reported in China was 5,242, which is insignificant compared with a population of 1.4 billion. However, various circles have different estimates on the number of deaths in the future.

●More than 2 million people

Zhuo Jiatong, chief physician of the Center for Disease Control and Prevention of the Guangxi Autonomous Region, said in a report published last month in Shanghai Preventive Medicine that if China loosened the restrictions on epidemic prevention in the same way as Hong Kong did this year, more than 2 million people would die of illness and more than 2 million people would die. 133 million people were diagnosed.

●1.55 million people

According to a report published in the "Nature Medicine" (Nature Medicine), scientists from China and the United States estimated in May that if China does not take protective measures such as strengthening vaccination and providing therapeutic drugs, there may be a risk of Slightly more than 1.5 million people died.

These scientists predicted that, based on the global data on the severity of mutated viruses, the peak demand for intensive care units for critically ill patients will reach more than 15 times, resulting in about 1.5 million deaths.

However, the main author of the report pointed out that if we can focus on administering the vaccine, the number of deaths may be greatly reduced.

●Up to 2.1 million people

Airfinity, a British medical information analysis company, pointed out at the end of November that if China cancels the zero-clearing policy, due to the low proportion of vaccinations and supplements and the lack of mixed antibodies, 1.3 million to 2.1 million people may die.

The company stated that this is calculated by comparing the data with the model of the BA.1 virus strain epidemic in Hong Kong.

The outbreak of this virus strain occurred in Hong Kong when restrictions were relaxed after two years of epidemic prevention.

●More than 1 million people

The Center for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington pointed out in an updated model on the 16th that it is expected that more than 1 million people will die in China by 2023, and the peak will be reached in April next year. Accumulated to 322,000 cases.

According to Christopher Murray, director of the Center for Health Metrics and Evaluation Research, about one-third of the Chinese population will have been diagnosed by then.

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