During the last few days, two experts immediately assumed that the

of Ukraine on the eve of the New Year holidays.

"The most likely next salvo is on

, an expert of the analytical center "Ukrainian Institute of the Future", reported on his social media page 

.

He made this conclusion, taking into account the average frequency of shelling (11 days) and the number of missiles that the Russians launch each time.

"The post about shelling is an attempt to build patterns,"

Anatoliy Amelin said in a comment for

Infographics.

Shelling of Ukraine

In turn, military analyst and participant in the Russian-Ukrainian war,

, spoke in detail about the likelihood of shelling.

"Is mass shelling of Kyiv possible? It all depends on how many long-range missiles the Russians have left," says Hetman. -101, these are sea-based missiles, Kalibr, other missiles that are not so long-range.

At the same time, the Hetman cites figures that coincide with those that the military leadership said.

"At the beginning of the war, the Russians

Iskander ballistic missiles , now there are a little more than a hundred left. There were 444 and 500 Kh-101 and Kh-555 missiles, respectively. Now

. It is impossible to say exactly. The Kh-22 missile, and this missiles of the middle of the previous century, a small number remained. They have several thousand converted S-300 missiles. I count up to 8 thousand."

An interval of two weeks

According to Hetman, the frequency of shelling of Ukraine directly depends on the ability of the Russians to reload their weapons.

"Why is there such an interval between the attacks? In order to charge the planes, strategic bombers, which have more than 100 computers inside, it takes several days. They simply cannot launch missiles faster. They do not have a sufficient number of planes and logistical capabilities," - explains Hetman.

Beat more than half

About the percentage of missiles shot down by Ukrainian air defense, Oleksiy Hetman says: "On average, we shoot down 55%. This figure can be increased, it depends on the density of our air defense. The Russians launch a large number of missiles without expecting that they will all reach to the target. They calculate that

. They spare no money. But they fail to bring us to a blackout, which is why they are very furious. It is enough to listen to their bloggers who do not understand why Russia spends millions just for for Ukraine to sit without electricity for a maximum of a day".

Dates of possible shelling

Regarding the dates of a possible new shelling, the opinions of experts almost coincide.

attack civilian objects at the most inconvenient time for us," Oleksiy Hetman suggests

. if you count from

(the last massive shelling - Ed.), then that's how it turns out.

In order to hit up to ten missiles, they can fire 200 missiles, but for this they need more time to prepare more bombers.

They can make a massive shelling within two days.

I will say something cynical - if there has been no massive shelling by the Russians for a long time, then we can expect that they are preparing a double.

They can fire two days in a row.

It is quite possible that this tactic will be used precisely on the Christmas and New Year holidays."

Mass shelling of Ukraine during December: what is known

On the morning of December 16, the Russian occupiers launched a massive missile attack on Ukraine.

As a result, electricity, heat and water supply disappeared in many settlements.

In addition, two people who died in

are known .

At least 12 more people were injured, including three small children.

On December 5,

Russia massively bombarded Ukraine with missiles.

Ukrainian air defense shot down rockets of the occupiers in Poltava Oblast, Kharkiv Oblast, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Kyiv Oblast, Cherkasy Oblast, Vinnytsia and other regions.

Later, it became known that as a result of the Russian missile attack, several private houses in the Zaporizhzhia region were destroyed, and many people were killed and injured.

On this day, Odesa remained without water supply, "Ukrzaliznytsia" reported that several trains were delayed due to the blackout.

Read also:

• How many drones have been shot down since the beginning of December - the Air Force said

• Russia keeps 72 Calibers at sea ready

• Why the West hesitates to supply Ukraine with Patriot air defense systems: an expert's explanation