On the night of Monday, December 19, when the temperature outside dropped to -10, the enemy fired 35 "shaheeds" into Ukraine, 30 of which were shot down by our air defense.

Kyiv got the most.

About 20 Iranian drones were in the sky above the capital and, unfortunately, there are hits on critical infrastructure facilities.

Moreover, one of the drones flew near the nuclear installation of the Southern Ukrainian NPP during the attack.

Moscow does not stop trying to freeze Ukrainians, leaving us without heating, electricity and water during frosts.

This, in their opinion, should obviously finally break the moral and psychological spirit of Ukrainians both in the rear and at the front.

And in order to intensify his strikes on the territory of Ukraine, the Kremlin "Fuhrer" personally went to Lukashenka for "permission" to strike Ukraine with missiles and drones from the territory of Belarus, and perhaps even for a second campaign on Kyiv and (or) Volyn.

Is it possible that this sudden visit by Putin to Lukashenka is an element of psychological pressure?

After all, the de facto Anschluss of Belarus has already taken place.

Russia granted Belarus a new loan for $1.74 billion and extended the repayment period for the previous ones by $1 billion. Belarusian potash fertilizers, which were under sanctions (and the share of Belarusian exports in the world was about 20%), now go through Russia.

True, due to Western sanctions, there are problems with the export of Russian fertilizers through European ports.

However, this is Russia's problem.

In addition, Russia is the largest trading partner of Belarus and a supplier of gas at a very low price.

As we can see, Lukashenko and the economy of Belarus are completely dependent on Russia and Putin's will.

Then, why did Putin personally come to Lukashenka in Minsk, at first glance, to bow?

After all, since February 2021, it was Lukashenko who constantly flew to Putin "to visit": 12 of their meetings took place in Russia (excluding international summits - ed.), and only the 13th, on Monday, December 19, on the territory of the self-proclaimed Belarusian president .

What could not be solved by phone?

TSN

u.a

analyzed the main statements of Putin and Lukashenka after their meeting in Minsk, and asked experts what threats should be expected from Belarus in the near future.

What is wrong

Three planes used by Putin took to the sky simultaneously during his departure for Minsk on the afternoon of Monday, December 19.

It became known on Friday, December 16, about the visit of the Kremlin "fuhrer" to Lukashenka for the first time in three years after the falsified presidential elections in Belarus in August 2020 and the start of a full-scale war against Ukraine on February 24, immediately after another massive missile attack on Ukraine and the high-profile interview of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces Valery Zaluzhny The Economist.  

Holovkom did not rule out that Russia may try to attack Kyiv again.

Currently, according to him, the Kremlin is training about 200,000 new soldiers.

Another major invasion could occur in February, March at best, and late January at worst.

"It may start not in Donbas, but in the direction of Kyiv, in the direction of Belarus, I do not rule out the southern direction," said Zaluzhny.

In addition, Putin did not come to Minsk alone, but together with the Ministers of Foreign Affairs and Defense of the Russian Federation, Sergei Lavrov and Sergei Shoigu.

And, interestingly, Shoigu already came to Minsk on December 3 to sign some documents with his Belarusian colleague Viktor Khrenin on the deepening of military cooperation between the countries.

In fact, according to numerous sources of information and the words of experts, Shoigu came to ask for even more weapons and military equipment from Belarusian warehouses for the war against Ukraine.

According to analysts of the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the visit in an extended format led by Putin aims to create informational conditions for a new stage of the war against Ukraine.

"Taken together, Putin's meeting with the Russian command, Shoigu's visit (to Belarus - ed.), as well as the meeting between Putin and Lukashenko indicate a new stage in the presentation, planning and conduct of the war, and may herald the resumption of offensive operations against Ukraine in the coming months." - believe in ISW.

Indeed, the top political and military leadership of Ukraine is now warning from the territory of Belarus about a second possible march to Kyiv and (or) Volyn to cut off the supply of Western aid to us.

From December 13 to 19, the Ministry of Defense of Belarus carried out a surprise check of the combat readiness of its army (when Belarusian tanks carried out maneuvers near the border with Latvia, Lithuania and Poland, which are NATO members).

And, yes, in February of this year, Belarus gave Russia its territory for missile attacks and invasion of Ukraine.

So far, Belarusian troops have not fought on the side of Russia.

However, there are several nuances.

First,

something is not right with the mathematics of mobilization in Russia.

The figure of 300,000 is clearly overstated, because Putin stated that 150,000 are already at the front.

Therefore, there is little hope that without a new wave of mobilization, Putin will be able to launch a second major offensive.

Secondly,

despite the Russian propaganda in Belarus, which "feeds" Belarusians from morning till night that Ukrainians are bad, the society of Belarus as a whole, the army too, is against direct entry into the war against Ukraine on the side of Russia.

Thirdly,

despite regular joint military exercises,

Belarus continues to give its weapons and equipment from Russian warehouses.

So why should the Belarusian army go to war?

And even without air superiority, conducting a ground operation is suicide.

In addition, according to the Center of National Resistance, Russia is trying to get its hands on the Belarusian defense industry.

Russian propaganda explains that their officers are now at the front, so Belarusian officers on Belarusian training grounds help train newly mobilized Russians.

Indeed, and TSN.ua has repeatedly written about it, the Kremlin sends mobilized people to Belarus, where a good base for military training has remained since Soviet times.

However, it is not true that the Russian officer corps is now at the front, so no one but Belarusians can train the mobilized.

The truth is that the regular Russian army, including Russian officers, is long dead.

"For Ukraine, the risks are that training of Russian mobilized troops continues on the territory of Belarus, and this will be a constant factor of pressure on our state. But I do not see such a concentration of Russian troops that can enter the territory of Ukraine, as was the case on February 24. Despite the conversation about the creation of an allied group, I do not believe in a situation in which Belarusian officers will command the Russian military. This, in my opinion, is simply impossible. Not to mention that Belarusian generals command Russian officers," TSN.ua said in a comment Yevhen Magda, director of the Institute of World Politics.

The purpose of the visit

At the same time, it should be recalled that, according to experts, Russia will need several weeks to deploy a group sufficient for an invasion from Belarus.

In addition, just as on the eve of February 24, and now, the Kremlin is very publicly and demonstratively inflaming the situation.

At that time, they also said that Putin was just playing with his muscles in order to win something in the West.

Therefore, the threat of repeated invasion by Belarus should be taken seriously.

According to Yevhen Magda, the purpose of Putin's visit is much broader than the talks about the direct participation of Belarusian troops in the invasion of Ukraine.

The number of the Belarusian army and the number of those willing to fight within the Belarusian army do not solve anything in this matter.

It is important for Putin to promote topics related to the "Union State".

"Don't forget that Putin considers the collapse of the USSR to be the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century. Not all documents on the creation of the Union State have been signed. Putin believes that Lukashenko will not be able to resist for long and will make concessions. But there is a nuance. Here, as in football, there is a factor of his field. If Lukashenko is even a weaker player, but on his own territory, he understands that Putin's opportunities to influence him are objectively limited after all. That is why, I think, he insisted that it was Putin who flew to him. This really took place for the first time after the events of 2020, which in certain issues were also inspired by Russia. Today, Lukashenko is the only military-political ally of Putin who speaks out loud about supporting aggression against Ukraine. This is such a guarantee "insurance policy" for him.that he will be able to be in this position and he will not have to make any concessions," Yevhen Magda told TSN.ua.

It is significant that on the very day of Putin's visit to Lukashenka and apparently talks about the "Union State" (and, in fact, about the reincarnation of the USSR), the head of the Information and Security Service of Moldova (the main intelligence service of this country) Alexandru Mustiatse said that next year Russia can attack Moldova.

Lukashenko's talks with Putin in Minsk on Monday, December 19, lasted 2.5 hours.

At a joint press conference late in the evening, Lukashenko boasted that "people will appreciate the decisions made," and also trolled the West, which considers him and Putin "co-aggressors and the most toxic people on the planet."

Putin, on the other hand, emphasized the creation of a joint defense space with Belarus, the production of military equipment and the organization of military exercises.

Apparently, it is for this reason that Russia resolved all "sensitive issues related to the supply of oil and gas" with Belarus.  

However, according to the Ukrainian politician, former ambassador of Ukraine to Belarus Roman Bezsmertny, Lukashenka's visit to Moscow should have been on the schedule, and not the other way around.

Because this is Lukashenko in the status of a beggar.

But Russia's defeats at the front, the canceled press conference and a series of failures in Russia's foreign policy turned everything upside down.

First,

nothing is ever decided at such meetings.

Secondly,

this meeting -

it is also a narrative for the West that Russia is ready to negotiate;

a hint from the Kremlin that, you see, they don't want it in Kyiv, but we are ready.

"And you could see how satisfied Lukashenka's pique, as well as his absolutely senseless words, annoyed Putin and Shoigu. But they had to play this role, because they have to sell something to their own people, who are starting to think that something is wrong," he said TSN.ua Roman Bezsmertnyi.

Thirdly,

the key component of this meeting is the issue of the defense and security bloc, which today linked Lukashenka and Putin, like Hitler and Mussolini.  

At the same time, according to Roman Bezsmertny, there is no need to look for additional arguments from Putin for Lukashenka.

Interstate agreements, the regulatory framework of the union state, joint doctrine, intersectoral agreements, etc., they made the Armed Forces of Belarus in full subordination to the General Staff of the Russian Federation.

Therefore, the topic of direct control of the troops is in the hands of Shoigu and Gerasimov.

If you put together Russian and Belarusian potential, the probability of their use against Ukraine is currently very high.

Why?

Because, according to Roman Bezsmertny, whatever the level of these forces and possible losses, it is absolutely of no interest to either Putin or Lukashenka.

If necessary, they will be thrown at Ukrainian bayonets.

Therefore, you should always be ready for the fact that it will be thrown into battle.

Even 35% of Belarusian society believes that they will be thrown into battle, and they will leave.

But 49% believe that they should surrender immediately.

"I'm not saying that more than 90% of Belarusians are against participation. And here there is such a contingency, the essence of which is that throwing the Belarusian army into battle now, together with or without Russian troops, would mean leading the Kremlin Fuhrer to a very quick defeat. there is a very interesting phrase in Zaluzhny's interview that refers to Crimea as the weakest component. I perfectly understand why Belarus is not put there because of whom. If Belarus is fired at, then an appropriate response will be given. Actually, these two arguments are enough to understand why under the current conditions, there will be no strike from there in the coming months. But, if this happens, it will open the way to the removal of the Lukashenka regime from power, and this is the end of the Kremlin Fuhrer. Because a chain reaction will follow, it will accelerate the catastrophe," concludes for TSN .ua Roman Bezsmertnyi.