According to experts, "the Kremlin seeks to use the Union State to establish Russian suzerainty - control - over Belarus."

"Lukashenka is already creating an information background to reject Russia's demands for integration, as he has been doing for decades," experts note.

- It is not clear whether Putin will be able to get the desired concessions from Lukashenka.

So far, Lukashenko has largely resisted Russia's integration demands and refused to send Belarusian troops to Russia's war against Ukraine," ISW said.

Experts of the Institute for the Study of War do not rule out that Putin's visit to Minsk could be preparation for "a repeated attack on the north of Ukraine or an attack on Kyiv in the winter of 2023."

"ISW now assesses the probability of a Russian invasion of Ukraine from Belarus as low, but does not rule out such a possibility," the analysts noted.

- It is unlikely that Belarusian troops will invade Ukraine without Russian strike force.

It is far from obvious that Lukashenka will attract Belarusian forces to fight in Ukraine even next to Russian troops.

So far, there are no signs that Russian troops are forming a strike group in Belarus."

At the same time, the meeting between Putin and Lukashenka will be part of the "Russian information operation", which is being carried out to "break the will of Ukraine and the willingness of the West to support it", to convince Ukrainians and residents of Western countries that "Russia can attack Ukraine from Belarus", it is noted in reports.