Putin will push Lukashenka to open a second front against Ukraine, or at least to "permit" the Russian army to attack Ukraine again from Belarusian territory.

About this in an interview with TSN.

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said military expert Oleg Zhdanov.  

In general, Putin's visit to Belarus has three main goals.

First,

it is the participation of Belarusian troops in the war against Ukraine on the side of Russia.

However, this is unlikely.

Secondly,

Putin will seek permission from Lukashenka to deploy Russian troops from the territory of Belarus.

Thirdly,

some sources say that Lukashenko may announce the withdrawal of Belarus from the CSTO.

"He once joked at the last CSTO summit that 'I will be the last to leave, or maybe the first.' existence. Today, he can at least somehow demonstrate in the political field that he has a military bloc of collective security. But with its collapse, he remains alone against the entire collective West. So, you see, on the one hand, Putin has something to talk about with Lukashenko . And on the other hand, in my opinion, Lukashenka has a rather strong position regarding the negotiations with Putin. Let's see if he will give in. I think he will hold out," Oleg Zhdanov believes.

The expert also draws attention to the fact that since the summer there have been no rockets flying over Ukraine from the territory of Belarus.

And the Russian troops, although they are training and gathering in Belarus, but they are not conducting any combat operations against Ukraine today.

According to Oleg Zhdanov, some sources say that Lukashenko is conducting separate negotiations with the West.

At the expense of its own security guarantees, today it is ready not to provide territory and airspace to Belarus for strikes on Ukraine.

Therefore, it is very important for Putin to overcome at least this "veto" of Lukashenka regarding the use of Russian troops from the territory of Belarus.

"And I will remind you, remember, when our territory was actively shelled from Belarus, in the summer we raised the question of breaking off diplomatic relations with Belarus. And somehow, these shellings suddenly stopped, and this issue was suddenly removed from the agenda. Therefore, I think Putin has something to negotiate with Lukashenka," says Oleg Zhdanov.

In addition, Russia does not have troops to attack Ukraine from the territory of Belarus.

Even if frost hits tomorrow, we still need to gather this army.

Today, there are about 10,000 Russian military personnel in Belarus.

There is a constant rotation.

Russia constantly brings them there, and those who have completed their studies are taken by plane to the Rostov region and the north of the Ukrainian Crimea, in order to replenish the losses in the personnel of that group of Russian troops, which is currently located in the southeast of Ukraine in the occupied territories.

"If a combined 50-70 thousand Russian army was formed on the territory of Belarus, then we would be talking about a real threat that it could move towards Ukraine. And today there is no army that could carry out such a combat mission. from the side of the Russian army. And from the Belarusian side, I note that, compared to February-March, when Lukashenko began sudden checks of the combat readiness of his army, he "chased" whole echelons and columns of brigades and BTG across the territory of Belarus. Today we we observe columns and echelons as part of company tactical groups. Therefore, he is either running out of resources, or he no longer has the strength and resources. And those 6 BTG along the entire border, which were in cover, are still standing, changing on a rotational basis. And, as our General Staff says, I really like this phrase,today we are not observing the formation of strike groups for the invasion of Ukraine on the territory of Belarus," Oleg Zhdanov concluded.

We will remind:

  •  The support of the Russian invasion of Ukraine by the Lukashenka regime made Belarus an accomplice in the war. 

    Alexander Lukashenko allowed Putin to use the territory of Belarus for the initial stage of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

    Also, Russian troops regularly leave the territory of the Republic of Belarus 

    launch rockets and drones over the cities of Ukraine.

  • Oleksandr Lukashenko initiated a sudden 

    check of the combat readiness of the 

    country's armed forces.

    Information also appeared that Russia is transferring military equipment to the northern border of Ukraine and has sent fighter jets to Belarus.

  • representative of the State Border Service of

    Ukraine Andriy Demchenko

     reported that

     Ukraine is preparing for any possible development of events on the northern borders 

    and continues to strengthen the border with Belarus.

  •  specialists of the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) consider 

    it extremely unlikely that Belarus will invade Ukraine

     in the near future.

    ISW explains that the Russians are 

    specifically promoting the thesis

     that Belarus is likely to attack.