Moreover, in an interview with The Economist, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny reported that the Russians are training about 200,000 new soldiers.

Zaluzhnyi has no doubts that they will go to Kyiv again. 

"The Russian mobilization worked. It is not true that their problems are so terrible that these people will not fight. They will fight. The Tsar tells them to go fight and they go fight. I studied the history of the two Chechen wars - everything was the same. Maybe they are not so well equipped, but they still pose a problem for us. According to our estimates, they have a reserve of 1.2-1.5 million people," said Zaluzhny. 

Currently, the bet is on the "partial" (in fact, full) first wave of mobilization, which Russia carried out in September-November.

According to the Kremlin, they recruited 300,000. Although, according to Ukrainian intelligence, Russia managed to collect somewhere between 220,000 and 240,000. At the same time, Putin, hinting at a long war, said that of these 300,000 mobilized, 150,000 are already at the front.

In addition, according to numerous reports, the mobilization in Russia continues, despite statements by Putin and the top military leadership about its completion.

The main directions for the enemy during the next four months will be

Donetsk and Belarus.

But the most difficult for Russia will be the Melitopol-Berdyansk

direction

with the subsequent withdrawal of the Defense Forces of Ukraine to Crimea and the clearing of the left bank of the Kherson Region.

About it in the commentary of TSN.

Mykhailo Samus

, Deputy Director of the Army, Conversion and Disarmament Center for International Affairs, said.

Now the fight for the initiative continues on the battlefield.

In Donbas, the enemy is trying to reverse the situation, is accumulating forces and trying to carry out offensive actions in order to prevent the Ukrainian army from advancing in the Svatove-Kreminna direction.

Near Bakhmut, where heavy fighting has been going on since August, the enemy has suffered huge losses.

"The reason is banal - they are trying to give Putin something to say on New Year's Day. He didn't just cancel his press conference and still hasn't announced when his address to the Federal Assembly will be, and this is written in the Constitution of the Russian Federation. But what will he say at this address does not know. Of course, you can say that everything is going according to plan, but it will not sound very adequate. You can talk to Peskov with your tongue, or (to Putin - ed.) standing with a glass of champagne... But the address to the Federal Assembly is a strategic document that results and gives plans for the future," Mykhailo Samus believes.

According to the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the enemy may launch an offensive in western Donetsk to capture the entire region within its administrative borders.

After fleeing from the right bank of the Kherson region, Russian troops were transferred to the Donetsk direction, reinforced by mobilized forces.

Despite this, according to ISW analysts, Russia will not be able to implement this plan.

According to Mykhailo Samus, it is obvious that Putin has set himself the task of reversing the situation.

He has one last chance.

The generals can paint him the following picture: we will gather our forces now, mobilize another 300,000, then another 300,000. That is, in fact, in three waves of this "partial" mobilization, we can collect 1 million.

"But they will "smear" these waves, and at the front they will again beat their heads against the wall of Ukrainian defense. All this will not be able to lead to any results. Actually, it is not the First World War, and it is not the 19th century. The number of personnel is good . But the units must be prepared. It cannot be just a crowd of people," the expert notes.

Currently, the Kremlin has two main goals: to make a breakthrough in Donbas and to prepare forces for a second offensive from the territory of Belarus.

For this, Putin needs to prepare another 100-150 thousand to throw them at Donbas and Belarus, and after the New Year - to start another wave of mobilization in order to have another 300 thousand somewhere in April-May, who should record the "gains" of the previous waves.

At the same time, according to British intelligence, the "allied" troops of Russia and Belarus, which are currently concentrated on the territory of Belarus, do not pose a threat to Ukraine from the north.

According to Mykhailo Samus, an offensive from Belarus, if Russia really goes for it, is possible only at the beginning of February or in March.

"Why did they start on February 24? Because the ground is frozen. That's why they can plan another offensive from Belarus right at this time, because armored vehicles simply cannot physically pass there. Roads are mined, bridges are destroyed. Therefore, they need the ground to freeze, and they somehow could move through swamps, demonstrating mobility," the expert explains.

However, it is unlikely that Putin will be able to implement all these plans, because he will not be able to solve the four biggest problems.

Firstly,

150,000 groups are not enough to carry out an offensive operation.

The result will be much worse than February 24.

"The Ukrainian army is completely different than it was on February 23, not only in terms of technical equipment, experience, and psychological state. Ukraine has excellent intelligence, because we have help with radio-electronic and satellite intelligence from our allies, and this solves a huge set of issues; and there is high-precision means of destruction, which I hope we will have with a longer range. Also, our capabilities in armored vehicles and artillery are constantly increasing. In addition, Russia's missile potential and equipment are completely different. This is no longer modern equipment," Mykhailo Samus explains .

Secondly,

Ukraine and NATO countries began to produce Soviet-style ammunition.

"This is news that should be perceived very negatively in the General Staff of the Russian Federation. This means that the simply gigantic advantage of Russia in ammunition and artillery, which was at the beginning of the war, is already being neutralized. The Russians already have an ammunition "starvation". And Ukraine is completely different trend. We are increasing production, which did not exist. We survived this most difficult stage," the expert emphasizes.

Thirdly,

the southern direction looms over the enemy.

If, according to Mykhailo Samus, we are talking about the operation of Ukrainian troops in the direction of Melitopol-Berdyansk with the subsequent entry into Crimea and the clearing of the left bank of the Kherson region, the problem here is that it is practically impossible to increase the offensive of Russian ground forces from Crimea and Mariupol.

"That is, now the Ukrainian army is looming in the southern direction. And here there is a huge threat for the Russians. If Ukraine successfully conducts an operation, for example, in the direction of Melitopol-Berdyansk and further with an exit to Crimea, then it is actually a collapse. Because you can continue to fight head on Bakhmut, but Ukrainian troops are already standing under Crimea. What do the Russians want? To withdraw Ukrainian forces from the south. If Ukraine closes the logistics of Crimea through the land corridor, the Russians will definitely not be able to get by with one bridge, especially if it can explode again. Then Crimea will turn into an island for Putin will be a disaster," the expert notes.

Fourth,

Ukraine expects the supply of more modern weapons:

  • France and Italy will provide SAMP-T air defense systems to Ukraine;

  • from the USA we expect the Patriot anti-missile system, kits for "smart bombs" and the doubling of the Ukrainian military training program in Germany (however, all this is still according to media reports - ed.);

  • from Germany are modern Leopard-2 battle tanks (Washington is putting pressure on Berlin in this matter - ed.);

  • and the supply of modern fighter jets and long-range missiles for Ukraine to gain a decisive advantage over Russia (information about this appears in the Western press, but there are no specifics yet - ed.).

Mykhailo Samus reminds that even at the beginning of the large-scale invasion, Russia tried to destroy Ukrainian control, communications, intelligence, etc. systems with missile and air strikes.

However, Russia lost its chance.

Ukrainian air defense and aviation survived.

The Russians have no dominion in the sky.

Even over the battlefield, they sometimes try to do so, but lose planes and helicopters.

"If now they try to act with a ground component, it will be the First World War, not even the Second. Because during the Second World War, aviation already played a huge role. The ground operation will simply be a meat grinder into which the Putin regime will throw Russians in order to continue its life. To achieve success in such an operation, it is impossible without acquiring air superiority. This is just a basic thing that is taught in the first year of any school or academy. Therefore, the strengthening of our air defense and anti-missile defense simply neutralizes the missile strikes of Russia, which is already playing with fire. They climbed into the critical reserve missiles. This is followed by China and everyone around," the expert explains.

Apparently, Putin is being told that they can do it after all.

The plan to destroy the Ukrainian energy infrastructure, proposed by the commander of the war against Ukraine Surovikin, was approved by Putin.

They said that Russia is now destroying all of Ukraine's critical infrastructure, Ukraine is freezing, riots are rising and Zelensky is being ousted.  

But this plan also failed.

And if Ukraine is given Patriot anti-missile systems, Putin's last trump card will be knocked out.

Air-launched missiles, of which Russia may still have quite a few, will be effective.

As well as Iranian ballistic missiles, which Tehran can transfer to Moscow.

"I think one of the reasons why Patriot is being given to us is the information that Iran is going to put these ballistic missiles to Russia after all. Patriot shoots down ballistic missiles. Because the latest modifications of these systems are designed for just that. All these anti-missile means and efforts The USA and NATO were directed precisely against Iran. What is the paradox. Therefore, a large part of these Iranian missiles will miss. This is not good news for Putin. Putin cannot admit that he has lost, he is going to the bottom and dragging everyone with him. Therefore, the winter-spring campaign is the culmination, after which there will be the final defeat of Russia," concluded Mykhailo Samus.