Briefly:

  • The times when the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Belarus made decisions and made policies have long passed.

  • Mackay was not the architect of the rapprochement line with the West.

    He was its face, but not its architect.

  • The absence of new sanctions is a sign of readiness not to escalate the situation in Belarusian-Western relations.

  • The West is not ready for regime change in Belarus - it has no strategy.

  • Just because it is not profitable for the Kremlin to change Lukashenka, they do not change him.

  • Direct contacts between Moscow and representatives of the Belarusian bureaucracy, bypassing Lukashenka, are no longer a secret.


- How would you assess the appointment of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Belarus, Sergei Oleinik, a man with a Western education (graduated from the diplomatic academy in Vienna), who has not made any anti-Western statements, even in the last two years?

- People have already hurried to say: they did not appoint a security officer - and that is, they say, a good thing.

However, it is clear that appointing a person who worked as the first deputy minister, who knows professional cuisine, is a more logical decision.

The message of this decision is to extend the previous line so that there are no sudden movements.

Arkady Moshes

And this preliminary line, by the way, is a line for further subordination of Belarusian foreign policy to Russian, while simultaneously throwing fishing rods to the West to find out whether it is ripe for any contacts with Minsk.

And if we talk about the continuity of Belarusian foreign policy, it should be noted that its main architect is Alexander Lukashenko.

I have always held the view that Mackay was not the architect of the rapprochement line with the West.

He was its face, but he was not its architect.

So the current minister will obey the will of the political leadership.

The times when the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Belarus made decisions and made policies have long passed.

Both in Belarus and in Russia, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is the executor, the conductor of the line that is being developed in other offices.

- You said that Minsk will continue to "cast rods" about whether the West is ready to "build bridges" with the current regime.

So is the West ready for this?

- There are no clear signals in this regard, and it would be strange to expect them.

The West is looking at what decision will be made in Minsk regarding the participation of the Belarusian armed forces in Russia's war against Ukraine.

Will the Belarusian territory be used?

If that doesn't happen, then maybe some kind of technical consultation can begin.

Very recently, Europe adopted a new package of sanctions against Russia - sanctions against Belarus were not strengthened.

This is a signal to both the government and Belarusian society that Belarus and Russia are not on the same page in the eyes of the West.

The situation is in a certain state of limbo.

The fact that the sanctions against Belarus are not being strengthened is certainly a certain evidence of the readiness not to escalate the situation in Belarusian-Western relations.

But this does not mean that some dialogue can already begin.

The second block of questions is about political prisoners.

Western public opinion now will not perceive even what it could perceive 2 years ago, when attempts were made to establish some talks with Minsk.

Today, the regime will need serious unilateral steps to release a large part of the police prisoners, so that the Western public opinion will agree to the fact that the diplomats will start talking with the Minsk regime.

The question of trading individual police prisoners will not work, the release of most of the police prisoners will be required, perhaps even with the question of rehabilitating some of them.

— But at the moment it looks like a rather fantastic option, Lukashenka will not go for it.

— I agree, I'm just paying attention to how the situation today differs from the situation in 2014, when the reset and "normalization of relations with the West" began.

Back then, public opinion in the West was much less involved in what was happening in the post-Soviet countries, and Western diplomacy was freer in its actions, both positive and negative.

If today one of the diplomats suddenly says "Let's turn the page", public opinion in many European countries will not accept it.

- You say that a lot depends on whether the Belarusian army will take part in Russia's war against Ukraine.

If the Belarusian regime only provides the territory again, but will not send its troops, will the current status quo be preserved?

- It seems to me that there will be no status quo in this version.

And last time, for giving Belarusian territory to attack Ukraine in February, Minsk was not forgiven, rather serious sanctions were imposed.

And now, if it happens again, there will be severe economic sanctions again.

But if the Belarusian army takes part in such an invasion, the West will have to react in a completely different way.

The direct participation of the Belarusian military in the war, their defeat in Ukraine, their great human losses will lead to a crisis within Belarus itself.

And then a completely different reaction will be needed, which will not be limited to statements and sanctions.

It will be necessary to develop an attitude towards regime change in Belarus.

And I will not say that the West is ready for this: the West is not ready for this.

The West has no strategy, no strategic vision of what to do when regime change becomes potentially possible.

But he will have to decide what he can offer the new Belarusian government.

It is quite a difficult task, but it will have to be done.

Such a situation can arise and change very actively even in a matter of days and weeks - in the event that Belarusian troops attack Ukraine.

And I still think that this will not happen.

For the simple reason that Lukashenko understands all the consequences.

I think Putin also understands this.

— But does the current regime in Minsk need the West?

Against the background of what they are doing in the country, against the background of repressions, attempts to build a new society, with new obedient people, starting with education, somehow it does not seem that Lukashenka is bothered by the West's biased attitude towards it.

Maybe today there is no need for a geopolitical twine?

- He needed the West and needed it all 28 years of being in power.

Now Lukashenka is completely following the will of Putin.

Just because it is not profitable for the Kremlin to change Lukashenka, they do not change him.

But this is too shaky a foundation for power.

Russian influence is increasing all the time.

What Russian Ambassador Babich was extorted for in 2019 with the scandal, today we have to endure.

Direct contacts between Moscow and representatives of the Belarusian bureaucracy, bypassing Lukashenka, are no longer a secret.

This had never happened before.

The second.

The presence of Russian troops on the territory of Belarus without any legal basis, without any agreements.

They come to the territory of Belarus simply because they want to.

Lukashenko understands that he no longer controls the situation in the country one hundred percent.

The representatives of the neighboring state have already eaten part of the pie of his power.

Contacts with the West would help to balance this.

But he dug himself a hole, and today Lukashenka no longer has such an opportunity.

- So what should the West do then?

Is it safe to watch Russia come to Belarus?

Or "extending a hand" to Lukashenka, helping him to resist it?

- There is another option.

It is related to the fact that it is clearly recorded in the public legal and diplomatic sphere that attempts to formally or informally annex Belarus, attempts to undermine its sovereignty will be as unacceptable for the West as attempts to undermine the sovereignty of Ukraine.

But the West has no strategy, it mainly reacts, often weakly and belatedly.

It is necessary to proceed from the task of protecting Belarusian independence, and not from the need to support Lukashenka just because sometimes he can say something that irritates Putin.

I will give the following example.

When the discussion about the use of nuclear weapons by Russia in Ukraine began, we saw what signals the West gave to the Kremlin, what diplomatic negotiations were conducted with China.

As a result, Russia closed this topic.

Absolutely the same can be demonstrated in the issue of independence and sovereignty of Belarus.

It even seems to me that it will be easier to find an understanding with China here than in the matter of nuclear weapons.

  • Vitaly Tsygankov

    Vitaly Tsygankov graduated from the Faculty of Journalism of BSU.

    One of the two founders of the first non-governmental news agency BelaPAN.

    He worked in "Zvyazda" newspapers, was a correspondent in Belarus of the Russian "Nezavisimaya Gazeta", Associated Press, columnist in "Svaboda" newspaper.

    On Belarusian Freedom since 1994.

    Correspondent of Russian Freedom in Belarus.


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