Russia has solved all the organizational and legal aspects that make it possible to use a joint group with the Belarusian army for a new invasion of Ukraine.

But even despite the announced mobilization in the Russian Federation, the territory of the satellite country still does not have the necessary number of troops for an offensive.

Mykhailo Samus, deputy director of the Army, Conversion and Disarmament Research Center for International Affairs,

spoke about this in an exclusive interview with

According to the expert, Russia has been in complete control of the military sphere of Belarus for several years in a row. 

"After February 24 [when Ukraine was invaded from the territory of a satellite country of the Russian Federation], it became an established fact that Belarus is not a sovereign state, its territory is used absolutely in the interests of the Russian Federation, and the Belarusian army can also be used at any moment." , - remarked Samus. 

In his opinion, until recently, Lukashenko did not send his combat-ready military units, that is, special forces and paratroopers, to help the Russian army, because he was afraid that in the event of their defeat, no one would protect him in the middle of the country.

The expert noted that in order to create organizational and legal prerequisites for the Russian army's offensive from the territory of Belarus with the use of the Belarusian component, the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Serhiy Shoigu and other high-ranking officials of the Russian military command visited Minsk.

They signed the amendments to the agreement on the "joint regional grouping of troops", in which the principle of extraterritoriality was fixed.

"Previously, the territory of Belarus and Russia, where the Western Military District of the Russian Federation is located, was defined as the limits of the use of Belarusian troops.

Now the territory is not limited at all.

That is, it can be applied outside the borders of Belarus.

This is a legal and organizational aspect," he emphasized.

According to the expert's calculations, the Belarusian army can present about 15-20 thousand military personnel for use against Ukraine. 

"These are mainly special operations forces and paratroopers.

And it is these 15-20 thousand who will become part of the group that Russia will prepare for use.

The role of Belarusians is that of extras, they will be managed.

The Russian command will determine where, in what composition, which BTG will be formed.

Lukashenko and the Belarusians do not control either the territory or their army," noted Mykhailo Samus. 

According to the expert, the number of troops — both Belarusian and Russian — stationed on the territory of the satellite country of the Russian Federation is not enough for a full-scale offensive.

"Given the length of the border - more than a thousand kilometers - there should be at least three directions in which they can be used to try to confuse the Ukrainian army.

There should be 50 thousand or even 80-100 thousand for this operation to be minimally successful.

This means that the Russians need to start at least 30,000, as they started last year, "said Samus.  

At the moment, as the expert reported, there are a maximum of 10,000 Russian military personnel on the territory of Belarus.

He does not rule out that the Russian army will try to increase its numbers at the expense of the mobilized, but this will depend on the situation at the front. 

"They recruited 300,000 mobilized men, about half of them are at the front, that is, 150,000 are preparing to participate in hostilities.

This means that some part can be sent to Belarus.

Everything will depend on the situation on the fronts.

If Ukraine starts an offensive operation in one of the directions, the Russians will be forced to send the main part of the mobilized there to prevent the entire front from falling asleep.

If the front freezes and is stabilized, some part can be sent to Belarus," the expert predicts.

"They need two more times in the same wave to collect a million and throw meat at the entire front, including Belarus," he summarized.

We will remind you that the self-proclaimed president of Belarus, Oleksandr Lukashenko, firmly believes that NATO troops should have captured Belarus and then attacked Russia from the Donbas side. 

Read also:

• Belarus is preparing for war against Ukraine - General Staff

• "The answer will be instantaneous": on the Belarusian border, the military is ready to destroy the enemy in a matter of minutes

• British intelligence assessed Lukashenka's military maneuvers