The self-proclaimed president of Belarus,

Oleksandr Lukashenko,

initiated a sudden check of the combat readiness of the country's armed forces, which began on December 13.

The troops were ordered as soon as possible "to advance to the designated areas, implement their engineering equipment, organize security and defense, and also establish bridge crossings over the Neman and Berezina rivers."

Information also appeared that Russia is transferring military equipment to the northern border of Ukraine and has sent three fighter jets to Belarus.

TSN.ua collected details about the activity of the troops of Belarus and Russia in the northern direction and about a possible threat to Ukraine.  

The State Secretary of the Security Council of Belarus Oleksandr Volfovych

spoke in detail about the task of checking the troops 

.

According to him, first of all, they will check the military units of immediate response, "which will primarily solve the tasks according to the assignments in the event of an aggravation of the situation both on the borders of the Republic of Belarus and inside the country."

"During the inspection ,

a wide range of tasks will be worked out

. These include marching over long distances, securing fire lines, performing fire tasks, tactical tasks. That is, the tasks will be set based on the analysis of the 

experience of conducting a "special operation" in Ukraine,"

 he said .

Wolfovich 

The State Secretary of the Security Council added that all operational commands will be involved in the inspection.

"One of the units, located in the Southern operational direction, was raised at 8 a.m. today and is preparing for combat readiness. It has been assigned the task of exiting and covering the taking under guard of an object on the southern border. In the future, the inspection will increase," 

he

said he.

According to the monitoring group "Belarusian Gayun", the Lukashenka regime is transferring special operations forces — the 103rd Vitebsk Separate Guards Airborne Brigade — to the Brest region bordering Ukraine.

Probably, the 103rd Vitebsk brigade was also involved in a sudden check of combat readiness.

"There are other options for the purpose of the 103rd brigade's transfer to the Brest region: it could be, for example, the rotation of their units to border areas with Ukraine, or combat coordination with the units of the Russian Armed Forces, which were spotted in the Brest region yesterday," - it is said in the message.

Photo: Telegram / Belorussky grove

At the same time, observers remind that the Neman and Berezina rivers, where the troops will build bridge crossings, are not located near the border with Ukraine.

The Neman River flows in the northwestern part of the country, in the territories of Minsk and Grodno regions.

and then goes to Lithuania.

The Berezyna is located entirely on the territory of Belarus and flows in four regions: Vitebsk, Minsk, Mogilev and Gomel.

On December 12, "Belarusian Gayun" reported on the transfer of Russian military equipment to the Brest region under the pretext of military exercises.

According to observers, the occupiers are transporting 24 units of military equipment, including four trawlers with T-80 tanks, a mortar battery, communication vehicles, and engineering equipment closer to the border with Ukraine.

It was also reported that three Russian MiG-31K fighters, capable of carrying Kinzhal missiles, arrived at the military airfield in Machulyshchy on December 13.

Ukraine strengthens the border with Belarus

The spokesman of the State Border Service of Ukraine, Andriy Demchenko, said on the air of the telethon that Ukraine is preparing for any possible development of events on the northern borders and continues to strengthen the border with Belarus.

They are currently strengthening the districts from Volyn to Chernihiv.

In particular, it is about engineering equipment, means of observation, recording, "in order to understand in advance what is happening in the nearest border area on the other side of the state border."

"Our attention is focused on the so-called regional grouping of the allied state, which Russia is deploying together with Belarus. Therefore, all the Defense Forces, all components of the Defense Forces - both the border guards, the Armed Forces, and the National Guard are doing everything necessary to strengthen both the border line and the border ", - said the spokesperson of the DPSU.

Is the offensive from Belarus real: opinions of experts

Oleksandr Kovalenko

, a military-political columnist of the "Information Resistance" group,

in an exclusive comment for TSN.ua, expressed the opinion that, despite military exercises and the arrival of Russian fighter jets in Belarus, the threat of an invasion from the north is minimal. 

According to him, the occupiers are not using MiG-31K aircraft with "Daggers" for the first time to keep the Ukrainian air defense in tension so that there are air alarms in Ukraine.

"

As for the threat of an invasion from Belarus, it is also minimal at the moment

. It will take time to gather forces for offensive actions, the formation of such forces will not be invisible.

Everything that is happening there now resembles training, simulating a threat near our borders in order to divert our resources from other directions

. The means and forces currently concentrated in Belarus do not allow for a land offensive and capture of a region or a regional city on the territory of Ukraine. This is critically insufficient," the expert explained.

Military expert

Serhii Grabskyi

said on the air of the "Freedom" channel that the Kremlin regime is increasing the combat potential of the territory it occupies in Belarus.

"

As for Belarus, the general trend is to build up the combat potential of this territory

, I emphasize - the occupied territory of Belarus in order to create conditions under which some offensive actions could be carried out from that direction with the use of local resources in particular," the expert said .

But, according to him,

to date, there has been no formation of any strike groups, "which would indicate that the enemy, for example, will go on the attack in a week or two

. "

Grabsky emphasized that Belarus is waging a war against Ukraine anyway:

"We should not forget that the occupied territory of Belarus is also used for airstrikes. The use of airspace, logistics routes, preparation of launch areas for operational-tactical missiles is already war."

In turn, specialists of the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) consider it 

extremely unlikely that Belarus will invade Ukraine

 in the foreseeable future.

ISW explains that the Russians

 are specifically promoting the thesis 

that Belarus is likely to attack.

"Russian officials routinely conduct intelligence operations suggesting that conventional Belarusian ground forces may join a Russian invasion of Ukraine. Belarusian leaders, including self-proclaimed President of Belarus Oleksandr Lukashenko, sometimes play along with these intelligence operations. The goal of these efforts is 

to to press Ukrainian forces to the Belarusian border in order to prevent them from strengthening Ukrainian operations in other parts of the theater of operations

," the message reads.

Military expert 

Oleg Zhdanov

believes that the probability of an attack from Belarus will become possible if the number of Russian troops with equipment and weapons accumulates there, and the number of this group exceeds 30 thousand.

Currently, according to his data, 

the location of about 10,000 Russian military personnel is recorded in the Republic of Belarus.

Read also:

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  • Poland expressed concern about the sudden check of the combat readiness of the army of Belarus

  • Putin's plans in Belarus: three main options for the development of events on the northern front