Briefly

Matsukevich

• By appointing Oleynik, Lukashenka showed that he does not put a cross on relations with the West.

• There is an understanding in the West that the instruments used in relation to Belarus - isolation, sanctions - do not bear fruit.

• However, there is no trust and there is a risk of getting into the situation of the former chairman of the International Ice Hockey Federation.

• Shaking Lukashenka's hand in Minsk in 2021 destroyed the career of this sports official.

Slyunkin

• Oleinik was involved in the previous thawing of relations with the West, and this was done through the Order of Malta and the Vatican.

• Oleynik's appointment is also a signal to Moscow that Lukashenka will not rush to integrate with Russia.

• Brussels will be happy to appoint Oleynik, if only because of his less toxicity than Mackay's after August 2020.

Paval Matsukevich

Former Chargé d'affaires of Belarus in Switzerland Paval Matsukevich

- I would not associate the possibility of a radical change of policy with the arrival of Minister Serhiy Oleynik.

It depends not on the minister, but on Lukashenka.

If he decides to change the policy, by and large it doesn't matter who will be the minister.

Another thing is that the not very good policy that Minsk tried to promote can be promoted in different ways.

Of course, the professional diplomat Oleinyk can "bend the party line" more effectively than a "strong businessman", a security guard or a propagandist.

With this appointment, Lukashenka showed that he has not put a cross on relations with the West.

Makei tried to establish relations with the West on the instructions of Lukashenka.

Now these attempts will be continued.

Oleinyk has been in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs since 1992.

He worked in the western direction, in his connection in the western direction — Switzerland, the Vatican, the Order of Malta.

- You also worked at the embassy in Switzerland.

Didn't you work there together with him?

- He was before me.

But this year he made a visit to Switzerland in the rank of first deputy minister.

The media did not write much about it, but it was important news.

All formats of diplomatic dialogue with Western countries have been stopped, there are not even consultations between the Ministries of Foreign Affairs.

- This year, the new ambassador of Switzerland presented the credentials to Lukashenka.

Soon after that, police prisoner Natalya Hershe, a Swiss citizen, was released.

Is it Oleinik's handiwork?

- I don't think so.

This was preceded by repeated telephone negotiations between the head of the Swiss Foreign Ministry and Mackay.

They established a good contact when the Swiss minister came to Belarus in February 2020.

For the Swiss, the Hershey issue was very sensitive, and they communicated directly with Mackay.

After August 2020, Mackay visited Bern on a working visit.

It is interesting that after the release of Hershey Lukashenko started writing to the President of Switzerland for protocol reasons - he congratulated him on the national holiday and the appointment of new ministers.

- How will Western diplomacy perceive the appointment of Aleynik?

Is it good or "worse is better"?

In the latter case, if it's good in some way, that's why it's bad.

- They think this way and that way.

In professional diplomatic circles, there is a dilemma regarding Belarus, what to do.

There is a certain desire to influence the situation, there is an understanding that the tools that have been used so far - isolation, sanctions - have not led to the desired results.

On the other hand, trust is lost.

There is a great risk of contacting the regime, trusting it.

There is a risk of repeating the fate of the head of the International Ice Hockey Federation, René Fazel.

After he hugged Lukashenka in Minsk, his career ended with great shame.

Although this sports official went to Minsk with not bad goals - there was a possibility that the hockey championship in Minsk could be exchanged for the release of some political prisoners.

But everything ended as it ended.

And the dilemma exists.

And no one has illusions.

Changing the minister is OK.

But Lukashenko must take some significant steps so that someone believes him.

Paval Slyunkin

Former employee of the Department of Europe at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Belarus, former political analyst at the Embassy of Belarus in Lithuania Paval Slyunkin

— The appointment of a certain person to the position of Minister of Foreign Affairs gives a hint of the tasks Alexander Lukashenko sets for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Lukashenka could have followed the path he followed for the last two years - he appointed a person close to the power bloc as the head of the government, a security officer as the head of his administration, and he also appointed security officers as his representatives in the regions.

It would be logical to put a security officer at the head of the Foreign Ministry of a country that is an accomplice of military aggression.

But Lukashenko did not do that.

He could appoint a Russophile minister.

There are enough people in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs who signal that they are ready to faithfully serve the new vector of foreign policy.

But such a person was not appointed.

They appointed a career diplomat who, since 2020, has not made any anti-Western statements, did not go on television, but calmly did his job.

And for me, this is the answer to the question of what Lukashenka wants from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

All his life Oleinyk worked in the western direction, he was involved in the previous rounds of thawing relations with the West.

He has close personal ties with representatives of the Order of Malta and the Holy See, he was an ambassador there, organized visits by official representatives of the Order and the Vatican.

It was thanks to them that these previous thawing of relations took place.

They started with contacts with them, and then the Vatican and the Order conducted negotiations with Western diplomacy.

The appointment of Oleynik means Lukashenka's wish for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to continue working on a Western vector.

And in the conditions of war and repression, he finds opportunities for communication and agreements.

- Do you think the Kremlin and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia will like this appointment?

- It is difficult to say.

Undoubtedly, they would be more happy if a person was appointed as minister who would say that Belarusians and Russians are one nation, that there should be no multi-vector nature in the foreign policy of Belarus, that Belarus should integrate more deeply with Russia and fight against a unipolar world.

There are such people in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Belarus, there are also those who worked there before and now continue to work in the international direction.

The appointment of Oleynik will be a signal to Moscow that Lukashenka does not want to rush integration.

And he does not want to rely entirely on Moscow in foreign policy.

But I don't think that there will be too many imitations.

It is not Sergei Aleynik who will determine the direction of foreign policy.

It was possible to appoint at least Ambrazevich (

), even Tertel (

).

But they would still carry out Lukashenka's orders.

Of course, there is a difference between Oleynik and Tertel.

And the results of their activities in the position of the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs would be different.

But there are factors that have a greater influence on the foreign policy of Belarus than the person at the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

- Will they be satisfied with today's appointment in Brussels?

There are people who believe that with the past rounds of warming relations, they were simply deceived, that these "honeymoons" only strengthened the regime.

And that Oleynik's function now will be to deceive the West once again.

It would be more difficult for Tartel to complete this task.

And Oleinyk may succeed.

Are you happy about it?

- I am sure that Brussels is happy with this appointment.

There, it is perceived as a signal that Lukashenka is ready not only to quarrel, but also to seek communication.

I talk a lot with European politicians and diplomats and I see that they expect something to change in Lukashenka's behavior.

Undoubtedly, they expect much more serious steps.

However, this appointment will give hope (or illusion) that something can be felt here again.

A lot will depend on what Oleynik brings and offers.

Only the rhetoric used by Vladimir Makei for the last year and used by Lukashenka, or something else, some suggestion.

The recently recalled Ambrazevich voiced a proposal for the transit of Ukrainian grain through Belarus.

As if without conditions.

However, with a request - to lift the sanctions on the export of Belarusian potash fertilizers.

If Oleinyk brings the same, but without requests, it will be a stepping stone for more constructive communication.

But even if he doesn't bring anything, after 2020 he was a much less toxic person than Makei, he is not so connected with the repressions in Belarus.

So diplomats accredited in Minsk and fellow ministers from EU countries will now be happy to meet with Oleinyk.

Well, he will try to take advantage of it.

- You said that in Moscow you would prefer a person who would speak about brotherhood, about integration, about the loss of a unipolar world.

And Oleynik won't have to learn these mantras?

- He will soon meet with his Russian colleague Sergei Lavrov.

And during this meeting Oleynik will have to say something similar.

Someone manages to say it more carefully, someone - less.

Something similar will definitely be heard, because the dependence of the Belarusian regime on Russia is extremely high.

I think that Oleinyk will try to say it carefully.

He is not tasked with integration and a single-vector policy.

• Yuri Drakakhrust

  Radio Svaboda journalist

  
  

  drakakhrusty@rferl.org

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