Russian officials have consistently conducted intelligence operations suggesting that Belarusian conventional ground forces may join the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Belarusian leaders, including Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, sometimes comply with these intelligence operations.

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The goal of these efforts is to pin down Ukrainian forces on the Belarusian border to prevent them from reinforcing Ukrainian operations elsewhere.

It is extremely unlikely that Belarus will invade Ukraine in the foreseeable future, whatever the course of these intelligence operations.

Belarusian intervention in Ukraine, moreover, could do little more than withdraw Ukrainian ground forces temporarily, given the extremely limited effective combat power at Minsk's disposal.

This was reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The Kremlin's efforts to pressure Belarus to support Russia's offensive campaign in Ukraine are part of a long-term effort to cement further control over Belarus.

ISW previously reported that the Kremlin has stepped up pressure on Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko to formalize Belarus' integration into the union state following Belarusian protests in 2020 and 2021.

Russia in particular seeks to establish a permanent military base in Belarus and direct control over the Belarusian military.

Russia routinely tries to use its influence over Belarusian security and military affairs to pressure Belarus into supporting its invasion of Ukraine.

The Belarusian regime's support for the Russian invasion made Belarus a co-belligerent in the war in Ukraine.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has offered Belarusian territory to Russian forces for the initial staging of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

The Belarusian territory offered critical land lines of communication to the Russian armed forces in their failed strike on Kiev and their subsequent withdrawal from northern Ukraine.

ISW previously reported that Belarus materially supports Russian offensives in Ukraine and provides Russian forces with safe territory and airspace from which to attack Ukraine with precision weapons.

Belarusian support for Russia's war in Ukraine likely impairs the material capacity of the Belarusian military to conduct its own conventional military operations.

A Belarusian open-source project reported on November 14 that the Belarusian military had transferred 122 T-72A tanks to Russian forces — possibly under the guise of sending them for modernization work in the Russian Federation.

Belarus has handed over 211 units of military equipment to the Russian Armed Forces, including 98 T-72A tanks and 60 BMP-2.

The confirmed transfer of 98 T-72 tanks represents approximately 18 percent of Belarus' active main battle tanks, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies' 2021 Military Balance Report.

Belarus transfers military equipment to check "terrorist response"

Belarusian officials are likely trying to cover up the amount of military equipment they are sending to Russia to support its invasion of Ukraine.

The Hajun Project reported on November 5 that the State Security Committee of Belarus, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the Special Forces of Belarus introduced increased protection and surveillance of the railway infrastructure and banned the passage of trains carrying military equipment through Belarusian cities.

Belarusian authorities are likely trying to prevent Western and Ukrainian intelligence agencies from fully assessing the extent of transfers of Belarusian military equipment to Russia.

Belarus may send more military equipment to Russian forces. 

The Ministry of Defense of Belarus has reportedly called up 10,000 conscripts to the Belarusian armed forces as part of the autumn recruitment campaign, a similar number to the recruitments in the autumn cycle in 2021. The Belarusian training of these mobilized Russian servicemen coincides with the start of the academic year of the Belarusian military.

On September 29, the GUR announced that Belarus was preparing to receive up to 20,000 mobilized Russian servicemen.

The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on November 25 that 12,000 Russian personnel were stationed in Belarus.

ISW previously assessed that Russian forces deployed the mobilized men for training in Belarus as part of the RGV due to Russia's deteriorating training capacity.

The Belarusian army probably has a relatively limited capacity to train existing and new personnel.

The Belarusian military has only six maneuver brigades and consists of approximately 45,000 active personnel divided into two command headquarters.

The small Belarusian military likely has limited training capacity and infrastructure to support its own force generation efforts.

The Belarusian military is now responsible for training at least twice as many servicemen as the Belarusian military normally trains.

Belarus's support for Russian force generation efforts would also likely limit it from being able to train more Belarusian military personnel if Lukashenko wishes to increase the number of conscripts in the next recruitment cycle to prepare for possible combat losses following a suspected Belarusian invasion in Ukraine.

The degradation of the Russian military due to the devastating losses in Ukraine would also prevent the deployment of Belarusian mechanized forces to fight alongside Russian troops.

Belarusian forces should theoretically be able to operate in combined units with Russian mechanized forces.

ISW previously assessed that Russia had made efforts to integrate the Belarusian military into Russian-led structures in joint military exercises and permanent joint combined combat training centers before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

The Belarusian military coordinated with the Russian military in the Zapad-2021 joint exercises in September 2021, in which Russian and Belarusian units formed joint "mobile tactical groups" that operated as separate battalion-level military units.

Sergei Shoigu talks with his Belarusian counterpart in Minsk

These combined units require a high degree of coordination and military training, and therefore the Russian and Belarusian forces use elite units in such efforts. 

These Russian units probably do not have the ability to operate in combined formations with Belarusian forces and are unable to operate effectively in combined operations.

Belarusian forces would likely have to operate alongside poorly trained Russian mobilized personnel if they entered the war in Ukraine.

The outcome of efforts to form and use such combined units in combat is likely to be poor.

Lukashenko's support for Russia's war in Ukraine and Russian pressure on Belarus to join the fighting are likely causing friction within the Belarusian military.

The Ukrainian General Staff reported on December 7 that the soldiers of the Belarusian Border Service and the Belarusian Armed Forces are increasingly dissatisfied with the activities of the Belarusian military-political leadership due to the threat of Belarus entering the war in Ukraine.

Russian invasion of Ukraine

Russia-Ukraine war