Political adviser to Pavlo Latushka in the United Transitional Cabinet and People's Anti-Crisis Leadership,

, and political observer of the "Pozirk" project

, are debating these issues on the Svaboda Premium channel .

Briefly

• The international recognition of occupied Belarus is a central point in the Cabinet's strategy.

• There are reasons to believe that Belarus is preparing to enter the war with its army.

• The struggle for the recognition of the occupied country is preparation for the situation when the Belarusian army will be sent to fight.

• The Cabinet conducts work with people in Belarus, but it is not public, underground.

• The actions of the "rail partisans" were the success of the "Victory" plan.

• Most of the participants of the "Victory" plan are not deciphered.

• Democratic forces really need criticism of the media.

• No one in the world is in a hurry to recognize Belarus as occupied.

• There are politicians in Ukraine, EU and USA who hope to separate Belarus from Russia.

• After the 1905 revolution in Russia, no one could offer a winning strategy for the opposition.

• 10,000 imported Russian mobs do not control Belarus, they sit on training grounds in tents and drink vodka.

• Scandals like the infiltration of the "ChKB" agent GUBAZIK undermine the trust in the entire opposition.

• Tsikhanovskaya's words that the scandal with Zaretskaya's resignation from the Cabinet is the result of undermining by the special services are an insult to independent journalists.

Drakakhrust: "The opposition rested against the wall of the regime, its strategy risks being detached from reality" - this is the title of the article by Alexander Klaskouski, published a few days ago.

The occasion was the press conference of the United Transitional Cabinet.

Alexander, let's go through the points of your criticism.

It seems to you that the goal of seeking recognition of Belarus as a country occupied by Russia is unsuccessful.

And why?

Klaskovsky:

I had the impression that the press conference of the United Transitional Cabinet was held for the sake of a "bird".

They wanted to limit the work of the Cabinet to 100 days, but they did not have time.

It remains unclear what the main message of the Cabinet is.

His strategy was stated to be 80-90% complete.

So, should I have waited until it was 100% ready?

Paval Latushka said that the Cabinet will seek recognition of Belarus as a country occupied by Russia.

Mr. Latushka himself has been defending this thesis since March, almost from the beginning of the Russian aggression against Ukraine.

But no one in the international community particularly picked up on this thesis.

There was a reservation about this by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Lithuania, Gabrielus Landsbergis;

the relevant bill was submitted to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine.

But for some state or international organization to officially declare it, then no.

And, probably, there is no hurry to recognize Belarus as occupied, because apparently there are questions from the point of view of international law.

To admit this means to sever all relations with Lukashenka.

And I assume that certain players in the West and in Ukraine are not interested in this.

Kyiv will not recall its ambassador from Minsk.

At the same time, they say in Kyiv that Lukashenka is a zero, that he is being manipulated by Putin.

But Kyiv leaves room for a diplomatic game with him.

There are also politicians in the European Union and the USA who hope to separate Belarus from Russia.

Brukhan:

International recognition of occupied Belarus is a central point in the Cabinet's strategy.

This recognition will make it possible to "reset" Lukashenka in a political sense and transfer political legitimacy to the Cabinet.

This will give the Cabinet new opportunities, for example, to create the armed forces of Belarus abroad.

The war currently going on in Ukraine creates certain opportunities for the creation of military units, which in the future can turn into the army of independent Belarus.

But this is work for the future.

We understand that European politicians take decisions rather slowly.

When Russia's full-scale war with Ukraine began, aid to Ukraine was initially quite modest.

Perhaps some states were waiting to see if Ukraine would stand up.

And only then did support for Ukraine become large-scale and universal.

When troops from the territory of Belarus went on the offensive against Ukraine, it became clear to everyone that Lukashenka is a co-aggressor.

And it was obvious to all members of the international community.

Ukraine says that Belarus is occupied.

This was stated by the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, Aleksey Danilov.

Drakakhrust: In theory, such things are formulated (or not formulated) by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the country.

We turned to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine after Danilov's statement with a request to answer whether the Ukrainian state officially considers that Belarus is occupied.

The answer was silence.

Bruhan:

Well, that's also the answer.

Drakakhrust: And from your words, I understood that the recognition process is more than slow so far.

And what are the chances of success?

Should you bet a million on "zero"?

Bruhan:

There are no reasons yet, but the situation may change.

For example, if Belarusian troops enter the territory of Ukraine.

The "hidden mobilization" underway in Belarus, the agreement between the ministries of defense of Belarus and the Russian Federation, the law on the death penalty for treason for soldiers and officials - this indicates that preparations for entering the war are underway.

We do not know if this will happen, but this is a situation for which the Cabinet should be prepared.

And the recognition of Belarus as occupied, the recognition of the Cabinet is the same preparation.

And that's why it's not a bet of a million on "zero".

Drakakhrust: Alexander, you note in your text that reaction reigns in the country.

Hundreds of public organizations were destroyed.

Any self-organization is extremely difficult.

We can say: the Cabinet does nothing inside Belarus.

Is it possible to do something?

Klaskovsky:

I believe that today is really a situation in which, as he said, there is no reception against the crowbar.

It is difficult for foreign opposition leaders to admit that they cannot do anything.

Today, this wall of the regime cannot be destroyed.

I can't offer any miracle strategy.

And earlier the old opposition told me: what do you propose?

So I said even then that nothing could be done.

In 2006, there were falsifications in the elections, but Lukashenka had quite wide support, while the opposition did not.

And Milinkevich could not win then, despite all his talents, and Ploscha could not.

In the Russian Empire, after the defeat of the revolution in 1905, neither Lenin, nor Trotsky, nor Plekhanov could propose a winning strategy.

Even at the beginning of 1917, Lenin thought that he would be a political emigrant until his death.

But the situation began to change in a flash: Lenin arrives, climbs on an armored car, and soon the Bolsheviks seize power.

We need to be ready for the time when it will be possible to arrive and climb onto the armored car, metaphorically speaking.

But there is no need to pull the owl on the globe.

There is no occupation of Belarus today.

I understand that it is more convenient for the Cabinet.

But in this respect, the new opposition is committing the same sin as the old one.

The old opposition announced a boycott of the elections, the House of Representatives was formed, and the opposition announced a moral victory.

And she sat in the same place where she sat before.

Well, what occupation?

In February-March, there were 20-30 thousand Russian soldiers.

Then almost all of them were taken out.

So what - de-occupation happened?

If foreign countries recognized Belarus as occupied in March, would they have to cancel this recognition in the summer?

Now they have caught up with 10,000 Russian mobs. Are they controlling Belarus?

They sit on the training grounds in tents and drink vodka.

Lukashenko talks about expanding the use of the death penalty, while Putin says that there is no need to return it.

So what kind of puppet is Lukashenka if he does what he wants in domestic politics?

People in Belarus, including supporters of change, see this drawing of the owl on the globe.

This is convenient for Mr. Latushka and the Cabinet, but it is an artificial attempt to increase the degree of legitimacy with the help of artificial wording, with which there are problems.

Drakakhrust: Artem, can the opposition do something inside Belarus?

And the second question is how to prepare for sudden changes?

Maybe not the most successful analogy with the Bolsheviks, which Alexander proposed, but they had structures in the empire prepared for revolution.

And when Lenin arrived at the Petrograd Finnish Railway Station, not everyone wondered: what kind of a man is climbing on an armored car?

There was an organization.

Bruhan: To

some extent, I agree with Mr. Alexander: there is no trick against the crowbar.

And the Cabinet frankly said at the press conference that there are no resources for many actions.

But politicians cannot and must not say: we cannot do anything.

There are optimists who motivate people, and there are realists, such as political commentators, who say that there is no way to oppose the scrap.

Lenin is a good example.

You say that in April 1917 he was known in Russia.

Therefore, many Belarusians know Tsikhanovskaya and other members of the Cabinet.

And there aren't that many of them.

The work of the Cabinet with people in Belarus is ongoing, but it is not public.

You can believe or not believe in the "Victory" plan.

But we know that he exists, although there are questions about him.

Mr. Sakhaszyk has contacts with the military in Belarus.

It is also work with people "on the ground".

It is impossible today to create structures in Belarus that would publicly support democratic forces.

They will be destroyed tomorrow.

Underground work is going on, but it cannot be talked about publicly.

And it is difficult to evaluate.

Klaskovsky:

Yes, I understand that underground work is going on.

And Lukashenka reacts to this: a bill on the execution of officials and military personnel for treason was introduced in the Chamber.

And in this sense, the government limits the work opportunities for Sakhaszyk and his colleagues.

Indeed, not everything can be said.

At a press conference, the Cabinet was told that part of the strategy would be classified.

It was suggested to take it on faith.

But this faith is lacking.

The moral and communication failures of the opposition headquarters are in plain sight.

Recently, ByPol, which deals with the "Victory" plan, offered to send messages in a secret chat.

But I'm sorry: this is being said after the scandal with the "Black Book of Belarus" (ChKB), where an agent of GUBAZiK infiltrated and for some time even managed this project.

According to independent media, up to 10,000 people were in danger as a result.

And what do we hear next from politicians?

That they had nothing to do with this project.

Well, this is actually not true: "Black Book" was affiliated with structures close to Tsikhanovskaya's office.

This story is very undermining of confidence and casts a big shadow on the opposition.

In Belarus, people don't really know where ChKB is, where ByPol ​​is, where the Cabinet is.

For Belarusians in the country, this is all - foreign opposition.

It was necessary to come out of this story in a different way, it was necessary to make a fundamental assessment and admit one's mistakes.

Can you recall the personnel punctures.

At that press conference, Svetlana Tsikhanovskaya reduced the whole situation with Zaretskaya's resignation to the undermining of the special services.

This is an insult to independent journalists and a departure from the essence of the issue.

It was a personnel puncture, and he was not the only one.

And all this leaves a very unpleasant trail and undermines that trust, without which neither the "Victory" plan nor other plans will succeed.

Brukhan:

Yes, the story with ChKB is a blow to the reputation of the Cabinet.

During the formation of the Cabinet, Tsikhanovskaya's office, the NAC, and ByPol ​​brought with them a train of problems that they had.

If we talk about the case with ChKB, it has already happened.

There is an acknowledgment that this was a problem.

Independent media have developed this topic very well.

They told how it happened.

Yes, it undermines the credibility of the "Victory" plan.

But it is worth noting certain successes of this plan, I mean the actions of the "rail partisans".

It was forgotten quickly enough.

There are structures, people "on the ground".

And most of the participants in the "Victory" plan have not been revealed.

We have to increase trust with more successful actions.

But we have the problem that Alexander talked about.

And thanks to the political observers, the media for talking about it, which helps to solve problems in the future.

If the media will not criticize the democratic forces, they will close in their cocoon.

That's why we really need this criticism.

• Yuri Drakakhrust

  Journalist of Radio Svaboda

  
  

  drakakhrusty@rferl.org

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