Zhang Guocheng, a professor at the General Education Center of Taipei Medical University, said today that China is determined to fight Taiwan. It is not a question of whether to fight or not, but a matter of timing.

(Photo by reporter Chen Yufu)

[Reporter Chen Yufu/Taipei Report] The Guoguan Center of National Chengchi University held a seminar on "Selection of Political Elites at the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China: Trends and Challenges". Professor Zhang Guocheng of the General Education Center of Taipei Medical University said that China is determined to fight Taiwan , It is not a question of whether to fight or not, but a question of timing. China's military invasion of Taiwan does not depend on Taiwan's internal political changes, it does not matter who you choose.

Zhang Guocheng pointed out that regarding the possibility of China launching a war against Taiwan, the current US-Taiwan relations and US-China relations have undergone qualitative changes. China's strength is no longer what it used to be.

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As for why the "chip war" will increase China's military invasion of Taiwan?

Zhang Guocheng said that before Japan attacked Pearl Harbor, it was caused by the oil blockade by the United States, and Japan preemptively launched the Pearl Harbor incident to break through the economic blockade.

If the U.S. blockade of China's chips really works, it will increase the chances of China's military invasion of Taiwan.

Also, Xi Jinping is following the Mao Zedong line, so Taiwan must pay more attention.

Hu Keyong, a retired naval officer and a technical expert at National Taiwan University’s National Defense Science and Technology Research Center, pointed out that in the military, risks come from the uncertainty and ambiguity of events. Risk management must consider maximizing benefits and minimizing losses. Will fight, depends on the attitude of the two sides and the United States.

He believes that the amount of losses the CCP can bear in the process of military reunification is the feasibility of the CCP’s launch of the military reunification operation. If Taiwan’s effective defensive "asymmetrical combat power" can deter attempts to invade Taiwan by force, it can maintain the peaceful development of the two sides of the Taiwan Strait.

Cai Wenxuan, a researcher at the Institute of Politics at the Academia Sinica, pointed out that Xi Jinping achieved the only leadership position within the party at the 20th National Congress. In addition to emphasizing two establishments, all members of the new Politburo Standing Committee are Xi Jinping's cronies.

On the issue of the Taiwan Strait, it can practice the tough measures it may take on Taiwan's future.

On the other hand, the concentration of power will also help Xi mobilize in the political, economic, social, or military fields. Solving the Taiwan issue is very likely to be a political achievement Xi Jinping intends to obtain, and continue to seize power.

According to Cai Wenxuan's research, it seems that there is no heir at all at present. In the next 10 to 20 years, if Xi Jinping does not suffer from health problems, he is likely to continue in power and move towards a lifelong leadership system; It cannot cause fundamental problems for Xi Jinping. In the future, there may be no post-Xi period, but a full-Xi period.

Hong Qichang, chairman of the Taiwan Institute of Industry, Economics, Construction and Research, said that Taiwan is a society full of high crises, and there is a CCP regime outside of Taiwan that wants to liberate Taiwan. The CCP’s Taiwan policy and goals remain unchanged. Nothing has changed. The question is how to prepare for war instead of seeking war in the face of China's pressure. Whether Taiwan will take non-war military actions or gray conflicts in the future deserves attention.

Hong Qichang, chairman of the Taiwan Institute of Industry, Economics, Construction and Research, said that Taiwan is a society full of high crises, and there is a CCP regime outside that wants to liberate Taiwan. The CCP's Taiwan policy and goals remain unchanged.

(Photo by reporter Chen Yufu)