This whole campaign fits well into the militaristic frenzy that is building up in Belarus with the start of the war in Ukraine.

Here, for example, on December 7-8, an inspection of the state system for responding to acts of terrorism is being conducted.

Is this a preparation for a full-fledged war against Ukraine, which Lukashenka is going to start?

I think, first of all, the authorities solve practical problems.

They need to put order in the records of conscripts.

Just in case.

In order not to repeat the history of Russian mobilization in a similar situation.

But not only.

At the same time, political tasks are being solved.

For Lukashenka, the ideal option for the functioning of the country is a fortress under siege.

If there are enemies around, then it is necessary to keep the state apparatus, security forces, and supporters of the regime in a state of readiness and tension all the time.

And not only fans.

Lukashenka repeatedly said that if there is a threat of war, then everyone should unite around the state, the government, the leader, regardless of political views.

In journalism, it is called "uniting around the flag".

Among other things, the external threat can serve as a justification for political terror in the eyes of society.

If there is a danger of war, then it is necessary to destroy the "fifth column" in the rear.

This is what all states in a state of war do.

And Russia's signal.

Like, we are on guard, we will close the western border of the union state.

As for the possibility of joining the war... I think that the assessment of the situation on the part of Ukraine is important here.

Last week, the secretary of the Ukrainian Security Council, Oleksiy Danilov, testified that he does not see any signs of an attack on Ukraine by Belarus.

On December 6, the head of Ukraine's military intelligence, Kirylo Budanov, said that rumors about an attack from Belarus are echoes of a Russian special information operation.

After all, "exclusively defensive weapons, which in principle cannot be used offensively" are concentrated on the territory of Belarus.

Apparently, the Belarusian society perceives this whole campaign in the matter of systematizing the accounting of conscripts quite calmly.

According to the official media, up to 85 percent of conscripts allegedly appeared on summons.

There are no mass escapes, as during the Russian mobilization.

Perhaps because everyone who wanted to escape had already fled in the first weeks and months of the war.

Then there were huge queues at the passport departments of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, at foreign embassies for visas, tickets for flights weeks in advance were lost.

But since Belarusians were not sent to the war then, the excitement died down.

And now fatalism dominates.

Like, let it go as it goes.

The opinions expressed in the blogs represent the views of the authors themselves and do not necessarily reflect the position of the editors.

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• Valer Karbalevich

  He was born in 1955.

  Graduated from the history faculty of BSU, candidate of historical sciences, associate professor.

  Radio Svaboda political commentator.

  
  
  

  karbalevich@gmail.com

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