Former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd believes that the political effects of the "White Paper Movement" will ferment in the later stages of Xi Jinping's power, and China will devote itself to economic growth in the next few years, and the highest risk period for using force against Taiwan will be in the 2030s.

(Bloomberg)

China has the opportunity to invade Taiwan in the 2030s and calls on the United States and allies to prepare

[Compile Sun Yuqing/Comprehensive Report] Kevin Rudd, former Australian Prime Minister and president of the American think tank "Asia Society" (Asia Society), said in an interview with "Nikkei Asia" on the 6th that China's recent "white paper movement" will not immediately subvert Communist regime, but its effects may be fermented after Xi Jinping's ouster.

He also pointed out that China has a better chance of invading Taiwan in the 2030s than in the 2020s, calling on the United States and its allies to be prepared.

Rudd pointed out that many Westerners describe China's "white paper movement" as an "uprising", but this is just a protest, just like protests over land policies, urban pollution, and food safety standards in China over the past 30 years.

Therefore, the West should not exaggerate its importance.

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However, if Xi Jinping takes Chinese politics further towards Leninism and China's economy towards Marxism, then there will be a reaction in the long run; reaction, but it is uncertain how long it will take before China "turns" again.

He believes that the reaction of the "white paper movement" or religious repression will not happen in the short term, nor does it necessarily mean that there will be a regime change, but a medium to long-term change that will prompt China to return to a more pragmatic middle line, possibly The time point falls in the "post-Xi Jinping" era.

Regarding the follow-up impact of the meeting between the US and Chinese heads of state in Bali, Indonesia in November, Rudd believes that Xi Jinping’s focus in three to five years will be on rebuilding China’s economic growth momentum, which will reduce geopolitical friction with the US and Europe However, this does not mean that the geopolitical risk is zero, it is only reduced.

He assessed that from the words used by Biden and Xi Jinping at the summit, it can be seen that both sides are trying to steer the two countries into "controllable strategic competition", which will help reduce the risk of crisis, conflict or war within 3 to 5 years .

However, Kevin Rudd specifically warned that from a mid- to long-term perspective, the risk of war in the Taiwan Strait has not decreased, and the next few years may be the calm before the storm. China will try to grasp power, military, Financial, economic and technological advantages in order to use force against Taiwan in the 2030s.

The only way to reduce the risk of war across the Taiwan Strait is to increase deterrence before then.

If China's economic growth rate is only 2% to 3% before the 2030s, it will be difficult for Xi Jinping to use force against Taiwan. After all, China's economy is not good, and its military budget will not be good either.