Russia planned to capture
in 10 days, but this plan failed due to excessive secrecy and low training of the Russians.
This is stated in a study by the British Royal Institute of Joint Forces (RUSI).
The authors of the report are military experts Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds, ex-advisor to the Minister of Defense of Ukraine, correspondent member of RUSI Oleksandr Danylyuk and ex-commander of the Airborne Assault Forces of Ukraine Mykhailo Zabrodskyi.
According to experts, Russia's plan was to invade Ukraine within 10 days and then occupy and annex the country by August 2022.
As "Ukrainian Pravda" reports, Russia hoped that the speed of the attack and the disinformation campaign could ensure a quick capture of the capital of Ukraine.
In addition, near Kiev, the Russians achieved an advantage in the ratio of forces - 12:1.
However, the Russian army proved to be unprepared at the tactical level for the effective implementation of its plan.
In addition, most of the Russian units, who received orders to attack no earlier than 24 hours before the invasion, did not know about the intention to attack Kyiv.
The Russian occupiers lacked ammunition, fuel, food, and a clear understanding of how their actions fit into the overall plan.
Thus, due to the preservation of secrecy, the armed forces of the Russian Federation received the advantage of surprise at the operational level, but at the tactical level, the Armed Forces of Ukraine better understood what to do, because they had been preparing to repel the Russian army's offensive for eight years.
The biggest shortcoming of the Russian plan in the report is the lack of reversible actions.
As a result, when speed did not produce the desired results, Russian forces found their position steadily deteriorating as Ukraine mobilized.
The Armed Forces took the initiative away from Russia only when long-range fire endangered Russian logistics.
It is noted that the tactical competence of the Russian military turned out to be significantly lower, compared to the expectations of many observers in Ukraine and Russia, as well as abroad.
The report concluded that the Russian occupiers are vulnerable to deception: higher authorities place too much trust in primary information gathered by subordinates at the front, and do not analyze the reliability of this information.
At the same time, the Russian command does not encourage honest reports about failures, which complicates the analysis.
Also, the Russians always try to carry out the order, even when it became meaningless due to a change in the situation.
The Russian system of conducting combat operations by battalion tactical groups (BTG) also proved to be ineffective.
It is noted that after the beginning of the invasion, the Russians sent personal messages to many Ukrainian generals with a call to surrender and assurances that Russia would not harm Ukraine.
Almost all the colonels of the Armed Forces were sent messages of similar content from anonymous numbers.
In addition, on the second day of the invasion, Russian President Vladimir Putin personally addressed the Ukrainian command, calling for the overthrow of the authorities in Kyiv.
The report says that the fact that these efforts failed indicates that the Russian special services did not have a good assessment of the psychology of the Ukrainian military.
RUSI notes that the primary sources of much of the data in this report cannot yet be made public, so it should be viewed as "methodologically flawed" evidence.
In conclusion, the authors of the report emphasize that Ukraine needs better support from its partners.
Military experts summarize that the victory of Ukraine requires considerable heavy fighting, but with proper support, Ukraine can win.
It will be recalled that the President's Office released an analysis of documents that discussed the plan to seize Ukraine by Russia in the first days of the attack.
In particular, the document states that
Russia planned to seize Kyiv and kill the state leadership, as well as tens of thousands of people
Russia is turning the war into a punitive campaign to inflict more pain on Ukrainians - Borrell
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