To date, there are no signs in Russia that could lead to a civil war between supporters and opponents of the invasion of Ukraine.

This opinion was expressed by a military analyst, Colonel Petro Chernyk, in an interview with TSN.ua.

"So far, I don't see any signs of a civil war in the Russian Federation. That's why. As the great Niccolò Machiavelli said, 'if you want to know how it will be, study how it was.'" "Since the time of Ivan the Terrible, who was the first Moscow tsar who completely usurped power, this is a complete concentration of power in one hand. They do not have a positive historical experience of fighting for at least some democratic values," Chernyk explained.

He also expressed the opinion that the Russians had only three major uprisings throughout history: the unsuccessful ones at the end of the 17th century, in the second half of the 18th century, and the Bolshevik uprising - "when they only changed the sign and replaced the tsarist empire with the Bolshevik one." .

To this list, the analyst added the collapse of the USSR in 1991 and the alleged democratization of the Russian Federation.

"For me, the fact that there will be no signs of rebellion there are two indicators. On the first day of the declared mobilization, such an interesting video was circulated around the world, where an already older woman in Moscow lamented emotionally that "I have two sons and they will be taken to war in Ukraine, they will die there.

Who will take care of me in my old age?" She did not shout that "why is this war happening and why are we doing this?" She was worried only about herself, because she knew that her state would definitely abandon her," the colonel said.

"And secondly, have you seen at least one rally of "good Russians" against the war in any of the major world capitals? I haven't. If so, then we draw a harsh and unpleasant conclusion for ourselves - there are no prerequisites for overthrowing the government. Putin is collective. That's what they are," added Chernyk.

We will remind you that secret opinion polls conducted by the Kremlin in the Russian Federation show that the majority of citizens feel indifference and apathy towards the war, this does not mean their transition to the opposition to "SVO".

Another recent closed poll in Russia shows that 25% of its citizens support the continuation of the war, while about 55% of Russians favor peace talks with Ukraine.  

At the same time, according to British intelligence, relatives of mobilized Russians are likely to protest more and more often due to poor conditions of service and high casualties among the mobilized.

Read also:

• Repression will intensify in Russia after the changes to the law on "foreign agents" are made - British intelligence

• What awaits Russia after the defeat in the war with Ukraine: a long-term forecast has been announced

• The mother of the captured occupier lashed out with criticism at Putin and Shoigu: "They are sitting, they are warm!"

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