With a new wave of mobilization in Russia, the Kremlin hopes to turn the tide of the war with Ukraine in its favor.
The second wave of mobilization may be larger than the first, when, according to official data, 300,000 people were drafted into the Russian army.
However, "mobics" are causing more problems than benefits for the occupiers today.
said this in a telethon broadcast on the YouTube channel of TSN.
According to him, Putin is interested in "resolving the Ukrainian issue much earlier than, for example, six months before the 2024 presidential elections, because the situation will not be the one he would like to have."
But this wave of mobilization did not reflect in a positive sense on the capabilities of the Russian army. The regular professional Russian army has been destroyed
, they cannot simply recruit officers on the streets, junior commanders, sergeants and just specialists who can operate modern complex weapons, they also cannot to quickly prepare.
During these two months, they collected meat, which is now being disposed of in some areas, for example, near Bakhmut
. But in reality, it is impossible to say that something has changed for the positive," Samus said.
As the expert noted, "
it is logical to assume that there will be an even greater wave of mobilization
"Now they are buying a little time with missile strikes. They are restraining Ukraine's capabilities, trying to create a humanitarian disaster in Ukraine, to switch attention to these aspects, and there will be a pause on the battlefield. I think that without another wave of mobilization, the Russian army cannot achieve any successes. Moreover, in the
spring there may be catastrophic processes that will force Russia to withdraw and flee from all occupied territories, in particular from Crimea
According to him, "there will be mobilization, this will be, perhaps, the last chance" for the Kremlin.
This mobilization can have two options
: either riots will begin among the mobilized, and they will still destroy these attempts to create a dictatorial regime, or these mobilized will become the driving force of the dictatorship. They can be returned home, provide them with powerful material support and make new "supporters" "who will travel around the regions and establish a new order," said Samus.
We will remind, according to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Russian occupiers plan to conduct a new mobilization in the first months of 2023 in order to replenish the current losses at the front.
"In the first quarter of 2023, the early graduation of cadets from the higher military educational institutions of the Russian Federation is planned. In addition, preparations for the next wave of mobilization planned for January-February 2023 are ongoing on the territory of the Russian Federation," the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said.
Analysts from the USA predict that another wave of mobilization in Russia will be announced in December.
According to military expert Oleg Zhdanov, they can mobilize up to 2 million people there and even introduce martial law.
The expert believes that this would be a problem for Ukrainian defenders, but not a critical one.
Viktor Kevlyuk, an expert of the Center for Defense Strategies, said that the Russian army can only win with "cannon fodder", since mobilized Russians survive one attack on average, and commanders - two attacks.
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