However, in the future, the threat of the use of the "Union State" grouping of Belarus-Russia remains.

The Russian Federation is actively withdrawing weapons and military equipment from storage warehouses, arsenals, and supply centers in order to replenish the losses and equip the formations and units created after the mobilization.

On the other hand, the self-proclaimed president Oleksandr Lukashenko really tried to somehow maneuver to the last in order to prevent the direct entry of the Armed Forces of Belarus into the war against Ukraine on the side of Russia.

He perfectly understands that after making this decision, the countdown to his life will end.

About this in an interview with TSN.

Added to all this are the threatening statements of Lukashenka, made at the already "dead" CSTO summit in Yerevan, which was supposed to be at least a PR platform for Putin after the humiliating SCO summits in Samarkand and G19 in Indonesia.

We will remind that it was at the CSTO summit in Yerevan that Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan refused to sign the draft declarations of the CSTO Collective Security Council and the document on joint measures to provide assistance to Armenia.

Obviously, this is why, of course, at the behest of Moscow, Lukashenko in Yerevan announced the "complete destruction of Ukraine" if Zelensky does not agree to negotiations with Putin.

And then, after returning from Yerevan to Minsk, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Belarus, Volodymyr Makei, suddenly dies, after which rumors spread that Lukashenko, in a panic, changed the cook, staff and security.

And all this against the background of talks about the second wave of mobilization in Russia immediately after the New Year.

"All this was a planned operation, when there were so-called leaks in the information space, some articles were published that Putin wants to kill Lukashenka. It is clear that he does not want to, but he can kill Lukashenka very easily. Putin has all the opportunities for this. However, Lukashenko suits Putin, because he keeps the situation under control in Belarus. But, I believe that they would have managed without Lukashenka, because the people there are very depressed," Mykhailo Samus believes.

The expert calls the death of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Belarus, Volodymyr Makei, a murder and a signal to Lukashenko that this is the end of the jokes, and Lukashenko must follow all orders from the Kremlin.

This week, according to Mykhailo Samus, 15 Tor-M2 air defense systems were flown to Belarus, and hospitals are being built there.

That is, it is obvious that the logistics infrastructure of complex and combat support is being built on the territory of Belarus for the deployment of the group.

"When will it be deployed? In fact, it can happen very quickly, in a few weeks, if all the infrastructure is in place. The main thing is that Russia has the personnel and equipment for this. Currently, a paradoxical situation has arisen - Russia simply does not physically have the forces to send to Belarus Moreover, currently the Defense Forces of Ukraine, according to the expert, will destroy the mobilized Russians enough that Putin will have to announce another wave of mobilization. Therefore, the group will not be created in Belarus in the coming month. And then everything will depend on the development of the situation: whether Russia continue to launch missile strikes or try to freeze the front. I think Belarus is a prospect closer to spring or even next winter. It all depends on how the Russians can assemble a group of 50 thousand or more troops,to send to Belarus and prepare for hostilities," the expert concluded.

TSN.ua wrote about the level of threat to Ukraine from Belarus and whether a new attack on Kyiv is possible.

Lukashenko stated that he could use 35,000-40,000 Belarusian troops in the war against Ukraine, but he would not do so.

American General Ben Godges believes that if Alexander Lukashenko orders his army to advance, the Belarusians may revolt.

Military expert Serhii Grabskyi is sure that the Belarusians will carry out the order coming from the Kremlin.

Oleksiy Arestovych, an adviser to the President's Office, said that the Russian Federation is considering the possibility of a new offensive from Belarus on the territory of Ukraine in its plans.

According to him, the occupiers can attack either Volyn or Kyiv.

The commander of the United Forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Serhii Nayev also 

.

But for this, the invaders need time.