Despite the fact that Ukraine won another major victory in the war against Russian aggression: liberating Kherson without grueling urban battles, this triumph was met with mixed messages from the administration of US President Joe Biden.

The White House hints that the Ukrainians should start peace talks with Russia.

In his article for The Washington Post, American analyst, political scientist and historian Hal Brands tries to answer the question why the protracted war in Ukraine can become a big problem for the United States.

The author asks the question: is Ukraine headed for further gains or for a difficult impasse?

On the one hand, the liberation of Kherson brought Ukrainian forces into the HIMARS range of the remaining Russian supply lines to Crimea, while the Armed Forces of Ukraine can prepare for new offensives in other directions.

Problems for Ukraine

1. The military factor

On the other hand, after heavy fighting, the Ukrainian army may need a rest.

It may also face stiffer resistance as Russian forces swell with an influx of mobilisers.

"Honestly, the Ukrainians have surprised skeptics before. But given that they have now pushed Russia out of its most vulnerable positions, the next steps may be more difficult," says Hal Brands.

2. Nuclear threat

The author does not rule out that Putin may dare to use nuclear weapons if the Armed Forces still enter Crimea.

"Putin has threatened to use nuclear weapons to hold the regions he has illegally seized since 2014. Ukraine has crossed those red lines in eastern Ukraine and the Kherson region. However, Crimea is more central to Putin's narrative of Russia's resurgence; its loss could undermine Putin's political prestige more severely, than any previous one," the expert believes.

3. Will the pro-Ukrainian coalition hold out?

The author of the article notes that Europe, deprived of Russian energy sources, is experiencing an economically difficult winter.

In his opinion, this is precisely why the Biden administration urged Zelensky to abandon his previous statement that Ukraine would negotiate only with the next leader of Russia.

This statement by the President of Ukraine actually made regime change in Moscow a military goal of the West.

"If Ukraine wants to get the support it needs to win the war, it must show that it is open to negotiations on ending it," Brands is convinced.

US problems

According to Hal Brands, if this war caused terrible losses to Ukraine, it became a strategic surprise for Washington:

• The Russian army is destroyed;

• NATO countries are rapidly arming themselves;

• Japan, Taiwan and Australia are also accelerating military preparations amid the threat from China.

According to the expert, the long war in Ukraine shows how insufficient the US defense industrial base has become.

Brands does not rule out that if the situation in the Taiwan Strait and relations between the United States and the People's Republic of China deteriorate so rapidly, the number of supporters of peace talks between Ukraine and the Russian Federation in the United States will increase.

"Of all the debates and dilemmas lurking behind recent talk of negotiations, perhaps the most pressing is the fear that Washington simply doesn't have time for the world," he concluded.

What is known about the probable negotiations between Ukraine and the Russian Federation

Earlier, the White House stated that the administration of the US president is not conducting non-public negotiations with Russia regarding Ukraine.

However, according to the Wall Street Journal, the United States is privately hinting to Kyiv about the need for negotiations. 

American diplomat, US ambassador to Ukraine (2006-2009), US chargé d'affaires in Ukraine (2019-2020) William Taylor, on the other hand, is confident that negotiations will now allow the Russians to stay in place when there is a chance to oust them militarily .

The head of the OP, Andriy Yermak, said that Russia did not officially request negotiations with Ukraine.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine explained that Russia is trying to buy time by announcing negotiations.

Russian oppositionist Leonid Gozman also believes that after the armistice, the Russian army can regroup and attack Ukraine again with new forces.

According to Mykhailo Podoliak, adviser to the head of the OP, the West's efforts to bring Ukraine to the negotiating table after a series of major military victories are tantamount to asking for surrender.

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