world economic situation today

tendency to occur

“Economic recession” is more likely.

Bloomberg news agency

Recent reports that

An economist at the Federal Reserve (Fed) gave a briefing to

“Policymakers” sounded in November

that the chances of a recession in the United States in 2023 had increased to nearly 50% due to the risks of

slowdown in consumer spending

Risks to the global economy and interest rate hikes are increasing. In addition, the possibility of continued decline in inflation is likely.

May require larger volumes than expected in conditions of tight money, so it is viewed that there is a possibility that the US economy will enter a recession next year.

Bloomberg news agency

polled economists in the same month.

I have an opinion.

There is a 65% chance of a 2023 US recession, based on the median of the Bloomberg economic model.

Make the probability at 100%.

last week

Reuters has compiled global economic forecasts.

The US economy and the Chinese economy in 2023 from major banks to compare, including the Fed's highest interest rate forecast in 2023, so I brought it down to see as follows

Morgan Stanley Global Economy 2.2% US 0.05% China 5%

Goldman Sachs Global Economy 1.80% US 1.1% China 4.50%

Barclays Global Economy 1.70% US -0.1% China 3.80%

BNP Paribas Global Economy 2.3% US -0.1% China 4.50%

Reuters has also compiled U.S. inflation expectations for 2023 and the Fed's top interest rate forecast for 2023.

Morgan Stanley US Inflation 3.3%, Fed Interest Rate High 4.625% (in March)

Goldman Sachs, US Inflation 3.2%, Fed Interest Rate High 5-5.25% (in May)

Barclays US Inflation 3.70%, Fed Interest Rate High 5-5.25%

(in March)

BNP Paribas US Inflation 4.40% Highest Fed Interest Rate 5-5.25% (in the first quarter)

as I have written since the beginning of the year

The Fed will depress US inflation that is as high as 8-9% down to 2%. The Fed will have to raise interest rates to compete with inflation.

The Fed will have to raise interest rates above inflation.

So it can push inflation down.

At the same time, the Fed has done QT to absorb money, QE has caused the condition.

"The dollar is tight" around the world to make the dollar appreciate.

Help reduce inflation in the US.

It is a very cruel measure, causing many new countries to die.

Sacrifice the mistakes of the Fed and the US Treasury.

Journal of Finance and Banking

November issue

also made a cover story

“Global recession RECESSION, which countries are most at risk?” Which countries will go to read. IMF, International Monetary Fund and World Bank meeting in Washington, D.C. in October.

The meeting had the same opinion that

The global economy is at risk of a recession in 2023, with one-third of the global economy experiencing a recession.

from the negative factors that come from

US tight monetary policy

This causes the dollar to strengthen against other currencies, causing the value of emerging economies' currencies to decrease.

This causes higher inflation and higher debt burden.

doing business today

whether small or large

“Economic data” is extremely important.

At least it gives a rough estimate of how

“Next year, really burn” how much is possible.

"The Wind Changes Direction"