First,

the Kremlin hopes that certain disturbances will begin inside Ukraine.

Russians still hope that the Ukrainian society, dissatisfied with the lack of elementary benefits of civilization - light, heat, water in the cold winter period - will present claims to the Ukrainian authorities.

And under the pressure of this internal dissatisfaction, a certain fatigue from the war, which the Russians hope for, Ukrainian society will begin to quarrel internally and demand peace negotiations under the pressure of these problems.

Secondly,

the Kremlin is trying to warm up certain discussions in the West, which financially supports Ukraine.

The notional average of $5 billion per month, which Ukraine needs, can increase simply in geometric progression during the winter months, when the West will have to provide support to Ukraine so that it simply passes this winter.

Thirdly,

it is possible to create chaos in Europe due to an even larger wave of Ukrainian asylum seekers who will be forced to leave Ukraine because there will be no electricity, water and heat in the winter.

But here too, Putin miscalculated.

The latest studies of migration organizations in Europe show that, for example, in Germany and Poland, where the largest number of Ukrainians settled, they have already found work for the most part.

That is, we do not create such a migration burden on EU countries.

About this in an interview with TSN.

According to her, Russia began targeted attacks on the energy infrastructure of Ukraine not at the beginning of its invasion, but immediately after all other plans for the occupation of Ukraine, the capture of Kyiv, the stabilization of the occupation administrations in the occupied territories, failed, and when Russia found itself facing a real it is at risk of losing not only Kharkiv, the right bank of Kherson Oblast, but also territories in other regions of Ukraine.

"Therefore, I fully share the assessment that Russia is doing this out of a certain desperation on the battlefield. Although, of course, this does not mean that the situation for the Russians is so catastrophic that they will withdraw from the occupied territories without much effort from the Ukrainian side. However, other tools to conquer Ukraine and even to ensure control over the currently occupied territories, Russia has almost run out," Maria Zolkina explains.

The researcher emphasizes that Russia's calculation is very simple: they believe that this coercion in the form of missile terror will work.

"But I have to disappoint them. In August and September, the Foundation for Democratic Initiatives conducted research in some front-line cities, in particular in Mykolaiv and Zaporizhzhia. And the results are such that Mykolaiv, for example, which at that time was one of the cities most affected by Russian shelling on the controlled territories to Ukraine, over the past year has not only become more tough and radical towards Russia and reconciliation with it, but also more confident that Ukraine will defeat the Russian Federation in this war.That is, every time Russia tries to force Ukraine to negotiate, unwillingness to compromise on the part of Ukrainians is growing," concluded Maria Zolkina.

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