Possible provocations of the Russian Federation on

the Belarusian

nuclear power plant "Ostrovets" is unlikely to change the factors restraining the readiness of dictator Alexander Lukashenko to enter the war on behalf of Russia.

This opinion was expressed to the American

 Institute for the study of war.

ISW reminded that Ukrainian intelligence warned of the intention of Russian special services to carry out several terrorist attacks on

critical infrastructure in Belarus,

trying to force the Belarusian army to join the war in Ukraine.

GUR also reported that Russian special services would traditionally blame Ukraine and NATO countries for the attacks in order to accelerate the involvement of the Belarusian military in Russia's war in Ukraine.

ISW has previously assessed that Belarus' entry into the war remains highly unlikely due to the significant domestic risk such involvement would pose to the Lukashenko regime.

"

"Potential false flag attacks are unlikely to change the internal factors that, as ISW continues to assess, restrain Lukashenka's willingness to go to war on behalf of Russia," the report said.

Threat from Belarus

Belarus has been participating in the war against Ukraine since February 24.

Lukashenka's regime gave Putin territory in Belarus for army troops who went on the offensive against Kyiv.

Occupying troops regularly launch rockets and Iranian drones over Ukraine from the territory of the Republic of Belarus.

Recently, the danger of an attack from the territory of Belarus has increased.

Thus, the deputy head of the Main Operational Department of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Brigadier General Oleksiy Gromov, expressed the opinion that after fleeing from the right bank of the Kherson region, the Russian troops may 

try to carry out a second invasion from Belarus on the territory of the Chernihiv and Sumy regions. 

Ukrainian diplomat and politician Roman Bezsmertnyi also believes that

a second offensive of the occupying army from the territory of Belarus is possible.

According to him, Putin and Lukashenko "take pleasure in the fact that society is suffering, so they can throw Russians and Belarusians into battle."

Bezsmertny emphasized that Ukraine should be ready, that Putin and Lukashenko will throw the army here. 

On November 21, the advisor of the President's Office, Oleksiy Arestovych, stated that the Russian command is considering the possibility of a new offensive from Belarus on the territory of Ukraine.

According to him,

one option is to Kyiv

, the second option, relatively speaking, to Volyn.

However, most of the Russian conscripts training in Belarus are preparing to go to the Donbas, not to the north.

According to the monitoring group "Belarusian Gayun", tanks and "Urals" removed from storage warehouses were sent from Belarus to occupied Donetsk and Luhansk. 

Meanwhile, the General Staff of the Armed Forces warns that in the event of a repeated offensive from Belarus , the

 enemy will suffer massive fire damage, which will suffer huge losses.

The military in the Rivne region are also covering the border with Belarus and 

preparing for close combat

, they are strengthening the defense on the Belarusian border - they have installed deep anti-tank ditches and mined the most unexpected areas.

Read also:

  • Militiamen in Belarus are being prepared for the border service: the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic intimidates with "terrorist acts"

  • They are preparing for revenge: analysts explained why Russia removed almost a hundred missiles from Belarus

  • The personnel is depressed: the training of Russian soldiers, which took place in Belarus, has ended - General Staff