Briefly

  • Scandals related to the cabinet hit all groups, regardless of whether they support the cabinet or not, because the ordinary outside observer does not understand too much what specific relations are formed there.

  • The new opposition borrows the standard moves and standard type of actions characteristic of the old opposition.

    The rails on which the old opposition stood led to a decrease in public support.

    And today we can have exactly such a situation.

  • By itself, the victory of Ukraine does not lead to the fact that changes will take place in Belarus.

    It is necessary to prepare for the situation, when changes will become possible, by thinking and building new structures that could implement these changes.

  • In the worst case, from my point of view, everything can remain as it is.

    The coordination council will recruit new people, but it will not cope with either the internal crisis of leadership or the crisis of political will to form some political actions, and it will not become a quasi-parliamentary type body that could perform control functions in relation to other subjects.

"

I observe the tendencies of transformation of the "new opposition" into the "old opposition""

- So far, I have not observed great interest of people in what the Coordination Council is doing, how it is being reformed.

Perhaps it is related to the fact that it is not yet a finished process, but there is also a general atmosphere.

How do you think the recent scandals related to the United Cabinet, the agent GUBAZiK in the "Black Book of Belarus" and others affect people's trust in the structures of democratic forces created after 2020?

And how will the echoes of these scandals affect the attitude towards the reformed Coordination Council?

— Naturally, these conflicts affect the entire democratic field and the governance structures of the democratic community and the political opposition created after 2020, regardless of how far they are from each other.

I think that the scandals connected with the cabinet affect all groups, regardless of whether they support the cabinet or not, because an ordinary outside observer, an ordinary citizen of Belarus, does not understand much about the specific relations there.

He sees whether it is a single structure, whether it is a single leadership, whether they make clear political actions on the political field, whether they achieve some results, or not.

And if he observes this and sees only scandals, of course, this undermines the general trust in the democratic movement and affects the Coordination Council as well.

- Let's think about the so-called "old" and "new" opposition.

The "old" opposition had decades of ungrateful work in Belarus under conditions of constant repression.

A certain assessment of the "old" opposition can be called the primaries of the beginning of 2020, which few people remember, they were unpopular among the masses.

Against this background, the electoral success of the new people looked convincing, but the popularity of the so-called "new" opposition is also falling, and one of the reasons can be called the lack of victories.

What will happen to the popular support of the current democratic forces, including the Coordination Council, if the situation of defeat continues for a very long time?

- I already wrote a year ago that I am observing the tendencies of transformation of the new opposition into the old opposition.

It borrows the standard moves and standard type of actions characteristic of the old opposition.

And those rails on which the old opposition stood led to a decrease in public support.

And today we can have exactly such a situation.

If nothing changes, the new opposition will resemble the old one more and more, and this will lead to a decrease in public support.

- What is your answer - what needs to be changed, how to change it?

What should be done differently?

- First of all, we need to look for an ideological consensus, a programmatic consensus, a common narrative that would unite democratic forces.

It must be some software base.

What to do now?

Not only to talk about the future of Belarus and the transition to it, but to have a program of actions for today, a program of how we can reach the situation of the transition period.

Secondly, it is necessary to reproduce and expand the methods of support and work with the community inside Belarus, realizing that this is first of all a civil movement of resistance.

We need to focus on the structuring of this common civil resistance movement with an emphasis on what is happening inside Belarus.

To think about technological forms of work with Belarusians, people in Belarus, related to technological work in social networks, new media, about the creation of new information structures and environments.

And it is necessary to engage in what is called organic work, what is connected with culture and education, preservation of identity, which is a natural way of resisting this regime and the Russification that it is currently carrying out.

- Do you think that the changes in Belarus are bringing Ukrainians closer to victory in the war?

What actually depends on the Belarusians, and what depends on the outcome of this war?

- Of course, they influence.

This situation affects the international context that will develop after the war, the configuration of forces that will develop in the region.

This weakens Russia itself, weakens Russia as an empire, and may lead to the destruction of Russia as an empire - not the disappearance of Russia in principle, but the disappearance of its imperial essence.

If this happens, of course, it will reduce Russia's support for Lukashenka's satellite regime and may give a chance for changes in Belarus.

But this is not an automatic process.

By itself, the victory of Ukraine does not lead to the fact that changes will take place in Belarus.

It is necessary to prepare for the situation, when changes will become possible, by thinking and building new structures that could implement these changes.

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The new parliament.

Who will enter it and what will he do.

Kovalkov about the new Coordination Council

by Radio Svaboda

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"To date, 150 applications have been submitted to the Coordination Council"

— Andrei, the deadline for submitting applications to the Coordination Council has been extended until November 21.

Let's try to summarize the previous results.

Who expressed a desire to join the Council?

What are the criteria?

Was there, or is there, interest in joining the Rada?

Are there people in the Council who are in Belarus?

- The criteria are quite simple.

Every organization or initiative, regardless of whether it operates in Belarus or abroad, registered or not, could delegate its representative to the Coordination Council.

If it turns out that there are fewer places than applications, there is a ranking vote among the delegates who are submitted.

They themselves determine who will eventually join the Coordinating Council.

To date, 150 applications have been submitted.

It means that there is interest.

A little smaller than the Coordination Council itself expected, but, on the other hand, objectively it could hardly be better.

The importance of the Coordinating Council in the last year and a half was not very significant, it was not very present in the information space and actually did not do any bright political actions, if at all it can be said that it did any political actions.

That's why the interest is what it is.

Nevertheless, enough organizations applied, and many wanted to, but did not have time.

Through these inquiries, a decision was made to extend the application deadline.

I do not yet have the right to name the specific organizations that were submitted, for various reasons.

Both for security reasons and because I do not have such a right.

There are organizations from Belarus, from the near diaspora, from the far diaspora, political structures, civil society organizations, individual applicants, organizations from various sectors (environmental, cultural, business).

The spectrum of organizations is quite serious, but what will be the final composition of the members of the new Coordination Council, it is still difficult to say.

Because this is the first stage - submission of applications, and then there is the mutual rating procedure, and who will come in the end, we do not know what the balance will be inside, we also cannot say.

- How would you explain to people in Belarus why the Coordination Council is being reformed, what it will do and how it can influence what is happening in Belarus?

- This is a place of coordination, coordination of positions between various structures in the broad sense of civil society and democratic actors.

This is a place for developing community action strategies.

This is a collective body that can influence the activity of structures that claim to take the place of legitimate representatives of the Belarusian people, including Svetlana Tsikhanovskaya's office, the Cabinet and any other structures.

If Kalinowski's regiment, for example, declares its political ambitions, it would be important that the Coordination Council as a collective body could at least provide some transparency and, in a certain sense, elements of control.

I think that the Council can be a body where public hearings of various strategies of various democratic forces take place - criticism, assessment, proposals of their options for actions.

And lastly, the Coordination Council can be a quasi-judicial body that would resolve disputes and conflicts.

Now these disputes and conflicts are raging, and the Council, which consists of representatives of various organizations of the democratic community, could play a role in analyzing these conflicts and make some authoritative decision.

Whether the Coordination Council itself will be able to become such a body that will solve these tasks after forming a new composition is a question.

It will depend on those people who will enter there, on how the work of the Council will be structured, what forces and internal influences will be formed in it.

In the worst case, from my point of view, everything can remain as it is.

The coordination council will recruit new people, but it will not cope with either the internal crisis of leadership or the crisis of political will for some political actions, and it will not become a quasi-parliamentary type body that could perform control functions in relation to other subjects.

- You started talking about leadership.

Will everyone in the Council be equal, or will the main composition be determined?

- Now there is a main body of the Council that makes decisions, there used to be a presidium, and after the defeat of the presidium, the Council could not cope with the leadership crisis.

There were no new leaders who would manage the process within the Council and effectively represent the Coordination Council in foreign political relations, would be the face, initiators of actions, speakers on behalf of the Council.

It may remain so even now, if the internal structure and decision-making processes within the Council do not change.

  • Anna Sous

    Radio Svaboda journalist

    Editor of the "Only women" community on Facebook 

    sousa@rferl.org

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