The Academy of National Defense and National Chengchi University held the "Taiwan Security Series Forum: Security Awareness and Defense Mobilization" today.
Chaired by Lian Hongyi (2nd from right), Dean of School of International Affairs, National Chengchi University, Ou Xifu (2nd from left), Director of the Chinese Communist Party Political and Military Institute of National Defense Academy, Chen Bingkui (1st from right), Associate Professor of Department of Foreign Affairs, National Chengchi University, and retired Major General Han Gangming (1st from left) were invited to join the discussion .
(Photo by reporter Wu Shuwei)
[Reporter Wu Shuwei/Taipei Report] US President Biden met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Bali, Indonesia yesterday. Biden expressed his opposition to unilateral changes to the status quo; The first insurmountable red line in U.S. relations.
Diplomatic scholar Chen Bingkui mentioned in a forum today that the variable in the Taiwan Strait is "trilateral", not bilateral. Conflicts are most likely to occur when the trilateral misunderstanding occurs. The focus of the meeting between Xi and Xi will be to reiterate each other's policies and avoid misunderstandings.
The Institute of National Defense Security and the School of International Affairs of National Chengchi University held the "Taiwan Security Series Forum: Security Awareness and Defense Mobilization" at National Chengchi University. It was chaired by Lian Hongyi, Dean of the School of International Affairs of National Chengchi University. Chen Bingkui, an associate professor of the Department, and Han Gangming, a researcher at the Institute of Political and Military Affairs of the Chinese Academy of National Defense, talked with him.
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"I think there is a variable in the Taiwan Strait, that is, it is not bilateral or trilateral." Chen Bingkui said, in fact, before the CCP considers using force against Taiwan or preparing to use force, it does not look at Taiwan's defense, but at Taiwan and the United States. For defense, we can now also observe how Japan assists the United States in defense. Because of Japan’s participation, the entire judgment will be more complicated, and because of the CCP’s assessment of the success of the operation, it is expected that Taiwan’s defense will become stronger and stronger, and the chances of success It's getting lower and lower, so it's likely to catch a point in time.
Chen Bingkui said that Taiwan has something to do in the triangular relationship between the United States, China and Taiwan, and it is difficult for the United States and the CCP to control what it does, but the United States is the one that decides "who did the wrong thing" and "who changes the status quo" in the triangular relationship Key countries, such as Taiwan, have done certain things, which are considered by the United States as crossing the red line and changing the status quo. However, Taiwan may not think so at all, but the United States does.
Chen Bingkui pointed out that maybe the CCP thinks that what it is doing is normal, and it is defined by the United States as crossing the red line and changing the status quo. "So conflicts are most likely to occur when three parties misunderstand."
Therefore, Chen Bingkui believes that the focus of the meeting will be to reaffirm each other's policies and avoid misunderstandings. At present, many people think that the "learning meeting" has nothing to change the status quo. There are different interpretations of the status quo, and then the use of force can only do so. In fact, there is not much change in the matter of reducing cross-strait conflicts.